Cook: Tourism: The Business of Travel, 3rd edition (c) 2006 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ, All Rights Reserved Chapter Twelve: Exploring the Future of Tourism

Cook: Tourism: The Business of Travel, 3rd edition (c) 2006 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ, All Rights Reserved Learning Objectives Describe some of the trends that will have an impact on future tourism marketing decisions Describe how market segments will change in the future of the tourism industry Describe how and why tourism service suppliers are becoming larger through mergers, consolidations and alliances Describe how technological changes will have an impact on the future of the tourism industry Describe some of the changes that will have an impact on future employment opportunities in the tourism industry Describe some of the possible trends in tourism entertainment and recreation activities

Cook: Tourism: The Business of Travel, 3rd edition (c) 2006 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ, All Rights Reserved Introduction Based on foundation of knowledge, can make some informed guesses of the future Thinking about the future allows one to plan for it Always will be the need for talented, well educated professionals in tourism organization

Cook: Tourism: The Business of Travel, 3rd edition (c) 2006 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ, All Rights Reserved The Shape of Coming Tourism Markets Two macro-scenarios will unfold Increase in mass markets Need for specialized service offering Demographic Shifts Increasing size of mature traveler due to aging of Baby Boomers (BB) Traditional family travel will get a boost from the baby boomlet and echo boom Shift in the countries visited as homelands

Cook: Tourism: The Business of Travel, 3rd edition (c) 2006 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ, All Rights Reserved The Shape of Coming Tourism Markets, continued Disabled Travelers 15% of US population is disabled Percent of world population that is disabled likely to grow US has made strides to increase accessibility Many sources of information and providers for disabled

Cook: Tourism: The Business of Travel, 3rd edition (c) 2006 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ, All Rights Reserved Changes in business, professional and conference (B,P, & C) travel Conflicting trends support increase and decrease in B,P, & C travel Best guess is that people will still desire to meet so B, P & C travel will increase Most popular types of conferences in the future will not be business related but focus on personal lifestyles and interests The Shape of Coming Tourism Markets, continued

Cook: Tourism: The Business of Travel, 3rd edition (c) 2006 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ, All Rights Reserved The future of Ecotourism Growth in appeal is contrary to its goals Could limit number of visitors or concentrate them in small areas Could be damaged by its own success May not be the best form of development for countries that need hard currency Problem of demonstration effect on native citizens Native industries do not blend with ecotourism Tourists will want more of Western comforts of life The Shape of Coming Tourism Markets, continued

Cook: Tourism: The Business of Travel, 3rd edition (c) 2006 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ, All Rights Reserved Identifying and Meeting Future Tourist Needs Use of microsegmentation to better meet visitors’ needs Segmenting the market into even smaller, more defined groups Use of mass customization (MC) to meet individual consumer’s unique needs Offer services customized to fulfill unique needs Database marketing/data mining aids in pinpointing and targeting micro segments and customizing offerings to individual customers Store vast quantities of consumer information Can be arranged as consumer profiles and searched for promotion targeting

Cook: Tourism: The Business of Travel, 3rd edition (c) 2006 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ, All Rights Reserved Moving Into an Era of Competitive Cooperation Will see an increasing number of mergers, acquisitions, alliances and cooperative agreements Consolidation increases efficiency and increases market share Airline alliances meet customers needs by delivering “seamless service” Foodservice suppliers are using vertical alliances to reduce operating costs Partnership agreements between food purveyors and restaurants Will see an increase in subcontracting of many guest support functions Contractors who supply management and labor only Contractors who lease space and supply all equipment, management and labor

Cook: Tourism: The Business of Travel, 3rd edition (c) 2006 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ, All Rights Reserved Accelerating Technological Advances Maximizing operating efficiencies Rising wages will necessitate increased productivity Use of communication technology Use of Internet Amplifying guests’ experiences Technology will be used to reduce customer burden Detailed information over the World Wide Web Use of website for reservations Cashless Society Customers purchase 25% more when using a credit card The Green frontier Recycling will become more important Increase in number of properties that are “green”

Cook: Tourism: The Business of Travel, 3rd edition (c) 2006 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ, All Rights Reserved Accelerating Technological Advances, continued Transportation transformations Development of more fuel efficient forms of transportation Expansion of rail service and higher speeds Increase of light rail service in U.S. and Canada Push for larger, quieter, more efficient aircrafts Internet: Travel tool of the 21 st century Travel planning and booking has increased

Cook: Tourism: The Business of Travel, 3rd edition (c) 2006 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ, All Rights Reserved Travel Agents’ Changing Roles One of the most debated issues is future of the travel agent as an intermediary Conflicting guesses Agent will become obsolete Agent will become even more important Ability of computers to act as electronic smart agents by storing traveler's preferences

Cook: Tourism: The Business of Travel, 3rd edition (c) 2006 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ, All Rights Reserved Scanning the Horizon for Future Tourist Activities Adventure/extreme tourism will increase Adventure tourism will become the major form of mass tourism Extreme tourism Theme Parks will add rides that allow guest to be more involved and challenged Animal attractions will offer more “up-close and personal” encounters with nature Casinos will position themselves as mainstream entertainment for the whole family

Cook: Tourism: The Business of Travel, 3rd edition (c) 2006 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ, All Rights Reserved Scanning the Horizon for Future Tourist Activities, continued Sport tourism More of world’s population is traveling for sport related reasons Snowboard/ski trips taken on spring break included Focus will be on development of winter resorts

Cook: Tourism: The Business of Travel, 3rd edition (c) 2006 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ, All Rights Reserved Keeping the Human Touch? To reduce labor costs, continue to automate services Depersonalize service encounter Will people value do-it-yourself or see changes as added effort/less service? Heartfelt hospitality will always be centerpiece of tourism industry