FEWS NET Afghanistan

Outline Description Description Population distribution Population distribution poverty poverty Food Insecurity Food Insecurity Livelihood zones Livelihood zones Agroclimatic factors Agroclimatic factors Rainfall/snow Rainfall/snow Agriculture Agriculture Water Water Special events and FS Special events and FS Conflict Conflict Drought Drought FEWS NET’s food security Monitoring tools FEWS NET’s food security Monitoring tools Snow pack Snow pack Supply-demand Supply-demand ground water ground water NDVI NDVI Rainfall Rainfall Water equivalent Water equivalent wrsi wrsi Monitoring Monitoring Agriculture Hazard Index by District Agriculture Hazard Index by District

Definition of Food Security A bit of history A bit of history Different factors Different factors Physical - USGS Physical - USGS Social Social economical economical

Population=28,000,000, source landscan Population=28,000,000, source landscan 10% of pup, is semi-nomadic pastoralist- 10% of pup, is semi-nomadic pastoralist-

Population=28,000,000, source landscan Population=28,000,000, source landscan 10% of pup, is semi-nomadic pastoralist- 10% of pup, is semi-nomadic pastoralist-

Poverty Distribution cost of a typical rural Afghan household Af8,450 per person per year, equivalent to Af23 or US$0.43 per person/day for subsistence food consumption. 52.8% of the rural population in Afghanistan is poor lack of access to food is due to low incomes, as opposed to lack of food supply. ( NRVA) Income: Employment, livestock, remittances and petty trade accounts for a significant portion of rural household income The distribution of poverty, as measured by food consumption is 2,100 kilocalories per day per person

Food Insecurity (FI) 20+ years of war and 4 years of drought has destroyed the economic structure of the people. Large amount of the pop is vulnerable WFP 300,000MT of food aid for 20% of pop. The main reasons for FI : reliance on underground water for irrigation cold spells early in the planting season lack of off-farm income and limited employment reduction of livestock and herds limited access to fertilizer and improved- seeds the inflow of returnees and insecurity.

Rainfall/snow Starts on Sep on the north-east and going to the south and west by Nov, the peak months for rainfall are Feb, March, April which build up the snow. Starts on Sep on the north-east and going to the south and west by Nov, the peak months for rainfall are Feb, March, April which build up the snow.

Agriculture Agriculture is the main economic activity Agriculture is the main economic activity 12% of land is cultivated 12% of land is cultivated 46% is pasture 46% is pasture Wheat is the main crop, other cereal maiz, barely and rice Wheat is the main crop, other cereal maiz, barely and rice Specialty crops, such as fruit and nuts are consumed locally and are the main agricultural – food export Specialty crops, such as fruit and nuts are consumed locally and are the main agricultural – food export Opium poppy is the main cash generator Opium poppy is the main cash generator 90% of wheat is planted in the fall, 80% is irrigated 90% of wheat is planted in the fall, 80% is irrigated

Water Most of Afghanistan’s agricultural land is irrigated and depend not on the immediate rainfall but on water released in the spring from snow that builds up during the winter. So it is possible to get a good idea on water availability for the fall harvest, many months ahead of time, by analyzing the snow build up. Most of Afghanistan’s agricultural land is irrigated and depend not on the immediate rainfall but on water released in the spring from snow that builds up during the winter. So it is possible to get a good idea on water availability for the fall harvest, many months ahead of time, by analyzing the snow build up.

Conflict

dried agriculture land Drought (02) Recent drought ( ) Recent drought ( ) Studies conducted by FAO, DCAAR and SCA 60-70% of the under water channels and 85% of the shallow wells dried out during the drought. Studies conducted by FAO, DCAAR and SCA 60-70% of the under water channels and 85% of the shallow wells dried out during the drought. A dried up kariz (subtarranean canal)

Food Security Monitoring FEWS NET Agroclimatic Monitoring Tools

Irrigation Supply and Demand Seasonal Irrigation Supply & Demand Irrigation Supply & Demand Anomaly (Median Year)

WRSI

Produces a graph for present period, would be good to have a historical

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irrigated rain fed Rangelands

Wells being monitored since 2004

Monitoring

A story of monitoring Fall-03 Winter-04 Fall-04 Winter-05 Fall-05Winter-06 Good snow build up farmers reportedly satisfied with the level of rainfall and expecting a good season if climate conditions remain similarly favorable in coming months. Unseasonably high temperatures have caused the melting of the snow cover in much of the country. Rapid melting of snow shortens the period of percolation for ground water recharge By Late Feb accumulated precipitation levels were similar to 2003, though well below the long-term average

A story of monitoring Fall-03 Winter-04 Fall-04 Winter-05 Fall-05Winter-06 By the end of March The Water supply and demand model was showing the impact of the early snow melting Watersheds started to show water deficit to support crop.

A story of monitoring Fall-03 Winter-04 Fall-04 Winter-05 Fall-05Winter-06 By June, Most of the shallow wells providing water for human and livestock consumption had dried out and some rivers had no water. Agricultural crop failure in most of the provinces. As shown by the NDVI comparison with to 2003 Most of the karizes that were fully or partially functioning needed to be cleaned or rehabilitated. Two dams in Ghazni Province (Sardeh and Zana Khan Dams) were under rehabilitation and Sultan Dam needed to be rehabilitated.

A story of monitoring Fall-03 Winter-04 Fall-04 Winter-05 Fall-05Winter-06 High temperature as well as very low precipitation had caused a severe shortage of drinking and irrigation water in many parts of the country. Field assessments indicated further declines in water sources compared to 2003 and recent drought years. About 8000 families were reported as displaced due to water shortage

A story of monitoring Fall-03 Winter-04 Fall-04 Winter-05 Fall-05Winter-06 By Dec 2004 large amounts of snow had fallen in most of the country.

Agriculture Hazard Index by District

irrigated rain fed Rangelands

The Supply and demand ration gives a percent measurement of the correspondence between water supply and demand.

The supply and demand (SD) Hazard Index (SDHI) is calculated as I=1-0.02(SD’-50) for SD’<100, (SD’ is the anomaly). This index measures the risk for those areas that present deficit of water.

The SDHI is then multiplied by the %irrigated crop by district to obtain the Irrigated crop Hazard Index.

The NDVI Hazard Index (NDVIHI) is calculated as I= (NDVI’-50) for NDVI’<100, (NDVI’ is the anomaly).

Name: Khosh Wa Firing LVZ: Salangi Plains Mixed Farming Pop: Name: Shahrak LVZ: West-Central Highlands Agro-Pastoral Pop: Name: Badhlani Jadid LVZ: High cereal production Pop:70273

References FEWS NET monthly reports FEWS NET monthly reports Documentation for FEWS tools Documentation for FEWS tools National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (NRVA) in Rural Afghanistan