USING STATISTICS FOR LONG TERM SPATIAL PLANNING: THE ILEMBE 2050 REGIONAL SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN Tindall Kruger and Pravina Govender 13 September 2013 SUPPORTED BY: StratPlan Jeff McCarthy Mott McDonald Goba ILEMBE DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY

THE 2050 PLAN – BASIC APPROACH The Ilembe Regional Spatial Development Plan is intended to provide long term spatial planning guidance to all stakeholders in Ilembe. The District is a recognised growth node in South Africa. For the purpose of the plan the Ilembe Team (supported by Iyer Urban Design Studio and StratPlan), based on a range of statistics, explored various growth scenarios for the District. The selection of the preferred scenario was influenced by socio- economic development trends and the proposed development trajectory reflected in the 2012 National Development Plan. The selected High Road Scenario was further developed to better understand future population profiles, housing demand, and economic development in the District. This understanding formed the basis for the preparation of short (2020), medium (2030) and long term (2050) spatial development plans. 2

USING STATISTICS – THE APPROACH Step 1: Developing the Scenarios Step 2: Unpacking the Scenarios Step 3: Understanding the Implications Step 4: Determining the Spatial Impact Step 5: Developing the Plan 3

Assumptions: The economy stagnates growing at between 1-2% HIV/AIDS continue to have major impact New urban / housing development limited Assumptions: The economy grows at between 3-5% Neighbouring areas low growth rates (in- migration) The impact of HIV/AIDS on population growth has been significantly reduced New urban / housing development STEP 1 - DEVELOPING THE SCENARIOS Assumptions: The economy grows at between 5-7% for an extended period In-migration from neighbouring countries and Districts as a result of economic growth As per previous SCENARIO 1 LOW ROAD SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 HIGH ROAD 1% POPULATION GROWTH PA Implications: Current growth rates maintained 2% POPULATION GROWTH PA Implications: Above average population growth rates 3% POPULATION GROWTH PA / 5% ECON. GROWTH Implications: High population growth rates 4

STEP 2 – UNPACKING THE SCENARIOS Sc 3: Nearly 4 times the current population by 2050 Sc 2: Double the current population Sc 1: Approx. 300k increase Sc 3: Double the current population by 2030 Note: In the period mid-1990 to mid-2000s RSAs nine major cities grew at a rate of 1.92% 5

A further 1.2m people to be accommodated in urban areas (3.9% growth over term) A further 120k people to be accommodated in rural areas (1% growth, not considering backlog) Scattered rural population remains stagnant or decline (0% growth) TOTAL POPULATION 2010 Population 612, Population 1,105, Population 1,997,484 6 STEP 3 – UNDERSTANDING THE IMPLICATIONS

SOME ASSUMPTIONS FOR ILEMBE: In 40 years the current 0-20 year old will be the group Fertility rates will decrease and in-migration will increase HIV/AIDS will continue to impact more on current group, as well as on 0-20 group Male / female distribution will become more equal (currently 45:55 in some areas) THREE PATTERNS OF POPULATION CHANGE 7

INFORMING THE THINKING Declining fertility ratesIncreasing crude death rates (per of population) (Substantially) lower life expectancy An ageing population 8

STEP 3 – UNDERSTANDING THE IMPLICATIONS 9

AGEMALEFEMALETOTAL , , , , , , , , ,874 89, , ,899 69, , ,950 79, ,962 59, ,975 39,950 TOTAL 1,008, ,755 1,997,484 STEP 3 – UNDERSTANDING THE IMPLICATIONS 2050 POPULATION IN AGE CATEGORIES %20% 24%21% 17%19% 12%14% 8%10% 6%8% 4% 2%3% 1%2% 100% DISTRIBUTION 10

STEP 4 – THE SPATIAL IMPACT (HOUSING) HOUSING TYPE TOTAL 2050 HOUSING NEED UNITS TO BE PROVIDED PER ANNUM Other - - Informal in back yard - - House/flat/room in back yard - - Room/flatlet on shared 2,628 Existing Workers hostel 2,628 Existing Informal dwelling (settlement) 10,513 Existing Traditional dwelling 52,565 Existing Town/cluster/etc house 63,078 62,169 1,554 Flat in block 78,848 73,592 1,840 House or brick structure (separate) 315, ,325 6,658 TOTAL 525, ,128 10,052 Note: Household size: 3.8 people 11

STEP 4 – THE SPATIAL IMPACT (ECONOMIC) SECTOR ILEMBE % GROWTH ManufacturingR 2,987 R 20,909 Finance, insurance, real estate and business services R 2,033 R 11,536 Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation R 1,519 R 7,931 AgricultureR 1,008 R 7,210 Transport, storage and communication R 738 R 6,489 General governmentR 965 R 4,326 Electricity, gas and waterR 95 R 3,605 Tourism R 3,605 ConstructionR 290 R 2,884 Community, social and personal services R 521 R 2,884 Mining and quarryingR 85 R 721 TOTALR 10,241 R 72,099 GVA IN R’000,000 12

STEP 4 – THE SPATIAL IMPACT (ECONOMIC) MANUFACTURING EXAMPLE: ha industrial land generates R31 billion in eThekwini (R4.4 million per hectare) ha industrial land will generate R20.9 billion in iLembe Current supply in Ilembe is 807 ha Additional demand for 2050 is ha 13

STEP 5 – THE PLAN (EXISTING) Existing Denser Development is shown in BROWN 14

STEP 5 – THE PLAN (SHORT TERM) Short-Term Development is shown in ORANGE 15

STEP 5 – THE PLAN (MEDIUM TERM) Medium-Term Development is shown in YELLOW 16

STEP 5 – THE PLAN (LONG TERM) Long-Term Development is shown in LIGHT YELLOW 17

THE LESSONS LEARNT Using statistical analysis as a tool for long term spatial planning is essential as it introduces reality into the process (something that is often lacking in these processes) Accurately predicting the future is impossible, but starting from a solid information base increases the probability of getting it right The iLembe 2050 Plan provides decision makers with a firm foundation for guiding future spatial development 18