New York’s Energy Opportunities 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Congressman Scott Murphy’s Economic Action Summit March 15, 2010.

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Presentation transcript:

New York’s Energy Opportunities 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Congressman Scott Murphy’s Economic Action Summit March 15, 2010

Energy Opportunities 2010 Good News and Bad News 1.Historic low energy prices…today. 2.Capital Region still pays more than it should 3.Cap and Trade upside for NY. 4.Energy renewables agenda. 5.Energy infrastructure agenda. 6.Consumers have the responsibility to choose.

Energy Opportunities 2010 Why are prices low?  Demand destruction: The Great Recession (Bad news)  Speculators out of market (Good news)  Natural gas supplies are up. Unconventional, shale gas. (Good news)

Energy Opportunities 2010 Wholesale Power Prices at Historic Low in 2009 (NYISO) LoadAv.Electric Av.NatGas GWh$/MWh$/MMBtu $58.26 $ $51.22 $ $49.90 $ $62.58 $ $62.80 $ $93.83 $ $76.45 $ $80.29 $ $95.31 $ $48.63 $4.87

Energy Opportunities 2010 Wholesale Electricity Price Trend (Average, NYS)

Energy Opportunities 2010 Wholesale Natural Gas Price Trends (Average, NYS)

Energy Opportunities 2010 Total Electric Demand NYS

NYMEX Natural Gas Prices

Energy Opportunities 2010 Natural gas storage trend, last 24 months (USEIA)

Energy Opportunities 2010 January 3, 2010, 1 p.m.

Energy Opportunities 2010 January 6, 2010, 9 a.m.

Energy Opportunities 2010 Capital Region Pricing Factors  Transmission congestion  Insufficient local generation  Stable, growing demand (Global Foundries)  Cost to region +/- $200,000,000 per year.

Energy Opportunities 2010 Grid upgrade plans (NYISO 2010) Firm: Spier Falls to Rotterdam Non-firm: Spier to Luther Forest Rotterdam to Luther Forest Mohican to Luther Forest North Troy to Luther Forest Irish Road to Luther Forest Just announced: Champlain-Hudson Express

Energy Opportunities 2010 Cap and Trade: Good News for New York ratepayers  Carbon tax will raise price of coal- fired generation.  Other states are more dependent on coal than New York.  Electric prices will normalize.

Energy Opportunities 2010 New York vs U.S.  New York State cents/kwh  U.S. average 8.90 cents/kwh

Energy Opportunities 2010 Pennsylvania Electric generation fuel mix, Nov. 2009

Energy Opportunities 2010 Ohio Electric generation fuel mix Nov. 2009

Energy Opportunities 2010 NY State Electric generation by fuel source Nov. 2009

Energy Opportunities 2010 Renewables by 2015 (NYS Energy Plan) Wind (1,280MW as of 2009):  On shore 7,993 MW  Off shore 534 MW Solar PV: 100 MW (14.6MW as of 2006) Total NYS peak electric demand 2008: +/- 38,720 MW (USEIA)

Energy Opportunities 2010 New York wind resources

Energy Opportunities 2010 Private Investment in renewables Energy price hedge  On-site, behind the meter, PPAs  Bi-lateral deals with developers Green marketing  Renewable Energy Credits (RECs)

Energy Opportunities 2010 …What’s next? NYS Energy Plan encourages 1.New capacity, both Generation and Transmission. 2.Fuel diversity, especially renewables. 3.Clear signals to consumers from energy markets to induce efficiency.

Energy Opportunities 2010 Other policy initiatives under way  Smart metering – Installations began  Net metering – Customer sited generation banking.  Article 10 - One-stop permitting expired Is renewed effort in store?  Federal ARRA funding, block grants

Energy Opportunities 2010 Consumer Choices and Responsibilities  Shop for energy supplies, price, rate, tax savings. Pay less.  Energy efficiency, SCR, NYSERDA programs. Use less.  Federal incentives, tax credits for efficiency and renewables