World Food Supply and Demand for the Next Half-Century Some Alternative Scenarios Text extracted from The World Food Problem Leathers and Foster,

Apocalypse Now? Famine is one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse –(War, Famine, Pestilence, Death) What will the future be? –Will the progress of the last 30 years continue? –Or are we on the brink of catastrophe?

The 6 “P”s Major factors: –Population –Prosperity –Productivity –Pollution Interplay of these will determine: –Price of food Humanity’s hope to influence the future: –Policy Jeffrey Sachs, Director of UN Millennium Development Project

Two Views of the Future Establishment view –FAO –World Bank –International Food Price Institute –U.S. Department of Agriculture Antiestablishment View –David Pimentel, Cornell University –World Watch Institute Per Pinstrup-Anderson, International Food Price Research Institute

Establishment View World Agriculture production continues to grow World population growing more slowly Income/person continues to grow Thus no catastrophic changes Confidence in technology of the future Policies need to support progress Future generations will be more prosperous

Antiestablishment View Possibility of environmental catastrophe –Erosion –Land degradation –Water shortage for irrigation –Rising sea levels from global warming Continued slow yield growth –Pessimistic about technology Sweeping policy changes needed –Radical economic and political restructuring Future generations will suffer –We are “eating the seed” –Need radical reduction in consumption

Establishment View Scenario 50 Years From Now Population 60% higher Average income will double –Calories/capita will increase by 15% –More meat Total food demand will increase by 108% Total food supply will increase by 110% –Ag land increases 13% –Yields increase 86% Undernutrition will decline –Incomes higher, prices lower Family meal, Brazil

If Assumptions Change If lower population growth: –74% increase in food –72% price decline! If higher population growth or lower yield growth: –Demand rises faster than supply –Prices rise substantially –But incomes rise more than prices –Modest increase in calories/person g_fruit_ars.jpg

Antiestablishment View Scenario 50 Years From Now Same increase in population (60%) Less increase in income (28%) Increase in per capita food demand of 4% Total food demand increases 70% Total food supply will decline 6% –15% decrease in ag land –Small increase in yields/hectare Price of food rises 110% Undernutrition increases substantially Orphanage, Nicaragua

If Assumptions Change If population grows more rapidly and income is stagnant –Population increases 120% –Income growth is 0 Food prices increase 181% Calories/capita 2,256 –Lower than Africa today Widespread undernutrition If yields grow a little more strongly –Catastrophe averted –Slight decline in calories/person

Policy Agreement Reduce population growth rate –Promote economic prosperity, health, and education Invest in agricultural productivity –Research, extension, credit, markets Protect soil and water resources –Assign property rights Gives resource owners a stake in environmental protection Encourage economic growth among the poorest –Macroeconomic policies, competitive markets, human capital Farmer, Zambia

The unfinished task “It is for us, the living, to be dedicated to the unfinished task” –Abraham Lincoln Gettysburg Address