SEMCOG Modeling Peer Exchange Panel Report

Overall Outline Topic Definition Planning Objective Problem Statement Basic Solution Advanced Solution Resources

Main Topics Data Needs/Methods Operations Modeling Freight/Commercial Vehicles Transit Economic / Land Use

Data Needs/Methods Definition: Raw data for performance measurement and model development. Objective: Need for direct planning indicators and prediction tools. Problem: Traditional methods are becoming too expensive and unreliable. Basic: Continue data collection for performance measurement and validation. Advanced: Explore new paradigms for effective data collection designed specifically for advanced modeling needs.

Operations Modeling Definition: Dynamic Traffic Assignment at multiple scales of granularity and analysis precision Objective: Desire to analyze Construction zones, incident management, traffic flow, intersection, signal time Problem: Static assignment isn’t intended to measure actual traffic flows. Basic: Static assignment is a good tool but needs good validation and post processing. Advanced: True Network microsimulation requires ABM integration for valid supply and demand analysis. Resources: Investigate DTA platforms (DynusT, MATSIM, TRANSIMS, DynaSmart). Internal expertise and interest desirable, but will require consulting/university support.

Freight Modeling Definition: Commodity flows analysis. Logistics and Supply Chain modeling Heavy Commercial Vehicle movements. Objective: Explain the economics of the freight industry and its relation to the manufacturing base. Problem: True Freight modeling is undeveloped. Traditional methods of Truck triptable preparation are wrong. Basic: Continue with robust data collection program and use to develop synthetic truck triptables. Examine use of statewide model and expand (inter)national sensitivity if needed. Advanced: Adopt a freight analysis construct that incorporates supply chain and logistics analysis, multiple freight modes and specialized network microsimulation.

Public Transit Definition: Demand for public transit modes. Ridership estimates. Objective: Promote alternative to automobile. Provide mobility to populations in need. Problem: Transit share is so small, elaborate modeling procedures may not be warranted. Basic: Keep mode choice simple. Advanced: Identify travel market segments more fully and develop specific models in an ABM context. This means moving toward population synthesis and microsimulation.

Economic and Land Use Definition: The spatial dynamics of social and economic change. Objective: Understand the outcomes of policy actions oriented toward fundamental change. Problem: Travel demands models are not fully integrated with Land Use and Economic prediction tools Basic: Use demand model accessibility to identify future land use potential (sketch level). Advanced: Develop a economic and land use simulation that is sensitive to declines and shifts in economic relationships (dynamic).

Equity (Fairness) Definition: individual benefits and burdens associated with public actions. Objective: Demonstrate that public actions are equitably distributed across the region. Problem: Modeling tools are used to predict the distribution of benefits Basic: Develop a broad range of metrics intended to communicate and educate audience on the dimensions of the topic. Advanced: Orient ABM development to rigorously track equity indicators at the person level.