China’s Population Just what kind of problem is it? Tim Oakes University of Colorado, Boulder

A Tale of Two Women Liu Yang Feng Jianmei

What is population?

Measurement, calculation, boundary

What is population? Measurement, calculation, boundary Mobility makes counting difficult – Household registration (hukou)

What is population? Measurement, calculation, boundary Mobility makes counting difficult – Household registration (hukou) Why should population be the state’s business at all?

Population as a Problem Malthus

Population as a Problem Marx

Population as a Problem Eugenics Post WWII mainstream development and modernization – Measurement and calculation – Mortality – Fertility

Population as a Problem

Population policy in China A long tradition of Malthusian thinking – 人口 literally ‘person’ + ‘mouth’

Population policy in China A long tradition of Malthusian thinking – 人口 literally ‘person’ + ‘mouth’ Mao “every mouth comes with a pair of hands”

Population policy in China A long tradition of Malthusian thinking – 人口 literally ‘person’ + ‘mouth’ Mao Wan Xi Shao 晚 细 少

The single-child family policy Why needed?

The single-child family policy Why needed? – 3 reasons Demographic Socio-economic Political

The single-child family policy Why needed? – 3 reasons Demographic Socio-economic Political Not a single policy

The single-child family policy The (multi)policy today – Three categories of fertility policy (Wang Feng) Strict control regions – Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Sichuan, Jiangsu (35% of China’s total population)

The single-child family policy The (multi)policy today – Three categories of fertility policy (Wang Feng) Strict control regions – Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Sichuan, Jiangsu (35% of China’s total population) ‘1.5 children policy’ regions – Couples whose first child is a girl are allowed a second birth (54% of China’s total population) Regions allowing a second or third birth – Mostly minority areas (11% of China’s total population)

‘Effective’ national rate of 1.47 Single-child policy applies to about 63% of China’s population

The single-child family policy Consequences of the policy – Aging population China has become old before it became rich Number of elderly in China – 67.9 million in 2000 – 93.3 million in 2015 – million in 2025 – million in 2050

The single-child family policy Consequences of the policy – Aging population

The single-child family policy Consequences of the policy – Aging population – Lopsided sex ratio By million ‘bare branches’ – Collapse of reliable birth reporting system

Population as a symbol of modernity Mao era – a counter-modernity Deng era reforms – population is a ‘chronic illness’ 1990s – quality population 2000s – a ‘new fertility culture’