Ready to begin. Failure Modes David L. Andra, Jr. Science and Operations Officer WFO Norman, Oklahoma.

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Presentation transcript:

Ready to begin

Failure Modes David L. Andra, Jr. Science and Operations Officer WFO Norman, Oklahoma

Failure Mode: The manner in which a system fails.

Examples Technology - WSR-88D klystron fails preventing access to critical data. Conceptual – Forecaster fails to recognize small storm as mini-supercell. Organizational – Absence of well defined job roles and mission priorities leads to failure in SA.

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis A technique employed by engineers to improve system performance.

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis 1. Define failure mode. 2. Identify cause of failure. 3. Identify effects of failure. 4. Corrective action.

An Example Failure mode: Conceptual Cause: Failed to identify mini-SC Mini-SC characteristics not understood by forecaster Effects: Injuries and loss of life Correction: Training for staff on mini-SC structure and evolution

Strategy to Improve Try to eliminate the failure mode. Minimize the severity of the failure. Reduce the occurrence of the failure mode. Improve the detection.

Other Considerations Some failures are more preventable than others!

Examples Relatively easy to prevent: Failure mode: Conceptual Cause: Classic SC not recognized Forecaster only uses 0.5 deg R product Effect: Loss of life, feature on Dateline Correction: Training, etc.

Examples Nearly impossible to prevent: Failure mode: Technological Cause: mini-SC at long range and embedded stratiform pcpn, night, sparse population. Brief tornado. Effect: mobile home destroyed with loss of life. Correction: maybe better VCPs or new radar?

Ten Recent Disasters (since 1989) Complete Embarrassment AOG

By Failure Mode

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is only a tool to identify potential or actual points of failure and identify corrective action.

A Case Analysis A nearly unwarned tornado in OKC metro area WFO Norman October 22, 2000

Surface 00Z

00Z OUN Raob

00Z OUN Hodograph

Considerations Tornado day before Midday AC “NO SVR” Tornado watch by early evening Dayshift held over “just in case” New staff member stopped by Initially one warning forecaster

What happened 5 tornadoes in CWA One F1, remainder rated F0 F1 occurred in relatively dense population area No significant injuries No significant lead time

Several storms of concern

Tornado warnings SE & NW

About 30 minutes later

Interesting signature W of RDA

Tornado at cursor

F1 tornado occurring

Was this a failure? Could have had more lead time!

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis 1. Define failure mode. 2. Identify cause of failure. 3. Identify effects of failure. 4. Corrective action.

Analysis Failure mode: Organizational Cause: Failed to identify mini-SC tornado threat Ambiguity in staffing caused breakdown in lines of responsibility Effects: Not too much, could have been worse! Correction: Re-emphasize intra-staff coordination and strengthen structure of duties

Questions and comments?