Nebojša Nakićenović International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx Technische Universität Wien Technische Universität Wien xx Sustainable Energy for All, OFID – November 2011 Sustainable Energy for All Comments on TF2

UN General Assembly resolution 65/ Energy Goals ● ●Universal Access to Modern Energy ● ●Double Energy Efficiency Improvement ● ●Double Renewable Share in Final Energy Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable

#3 Titel des Vortrags Legitimacy of BAU eroding Vision: low carbon narrative → Growing number of actors of change: green businesses cities civil society science IGOs (UNIDO etc.) Drivers of Transformations ”Decarbonization Revolution”

#4 Titel des Vortrags Legitimacy of BAU eroding Vision: low carbon narrative legitimacy concepts power “it can be done“ finance, technologies Drivers of Transformations Multiple Drivers of Change

#5 Cross-Cutting Issues to be Considered by all the TF: ●Establish Firm Political Commitment by Specific Targets and/or Attractive Investment Incentive Programs ●Create Stable Policy and Regulatory Frameworks Based on Best Practices ●Finance the Transformation by Rendering Energy Investments More Attractive (Guarantees) ●Strengthen Local Capacity and Forge Global Partnerships and Coalitions ●Ensure Accountability and Transparent Reporting thereby Reducing Uncertainties ●Strengthen the Analytical Foundation including Integrated Energy Roadmaps ●Disseminate Information and Facilitate Diffusion of Ideas and Systems

#6 Cross-Cutting Issues to be Considered by all the TF: ●Establish Firm Political Commitment by Specific Targets and/or Attractive Investment Incentive Programs ●Create Stable Policy and Regulatory Frameworks Based on Best Practices ●Finance the Transformation by Rendering Energy Investments More Attractive (Guarantees) ●Strengthen Local Capacity and Forge Global Partnerships and Coalitions ●Ensure Accountability and Transparent Reporting thereby Reducing Uncertainties ●Strengthen the Analytical Foundation including Integrated Energy Roadmaps ●Disseminate Information and Facilitate Diffusion of Ideas and Systems

# EJ Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Microchip Commercial aviation Television Vacuum tube Gasoline engine Electric motor Steam engine Nuclear energy Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Global Primary Energy

# EJ Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Microchip Commercial aviation Television Vacuum tube Gasoline engine Electric motor Steam engine Nuclear energy Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Source: Riahi et al., 2011 Global Primary Energy Counterfactual - BAU

# EJ Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Global Primary Energy lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~30% renewables by 2030 Limited Intermittent REN Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS – “negative CO 2 ” Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Source: Riahi et al., 2011

# EJ Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass EJ Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Global Primary Energy China

# EJ Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass EJ Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Global Primary Energy Sub-Saharan Africa

#12 GEA-Efficiency Industry: 1.Retrofit of existing plants 2.Best available technology for new investments 3.Optimization of energy & material flows 4.Lifecycle product design & enhanced recycling 5.Electrification incl. switch to renewable energy Industry: 1.Retrofit of existing plants 2.Best available technology for new investments 3.Optimization of energy & material flows 4.Lifecycle product design & enhanced recycling 5.Electrification incl. switch to renewable energy Global Final Energy Demand Transport Residential/Commercial Industry Residential: 1.Rapid introduction of strict building codes 2.Accelerate retrofit rate to 3% of stock per year (x 4 improvement by 2050) 3.Improved electrical appliances Residential: 1.Rapid introduction of strict building codes 2.Accelerate retrofit rate to 3% of stock per year (x 4 improvement by 2050) 3.Improved electrical appliances Transport: 1.Technology efficiency (50%) 2.Reduced private mobility (eg urban planning) 3.Infrastructure for public transport + railway freight Transport: 1.Technology efficiency (50%) 2.Reduced private mobility (eg urban planning) 3.Infrastructure for public transport + railway freight Source: Riahi et al., 2011

#13 Titel des Vortrags Where do we stand? Five good news & five major challenges

Global Energy Investments

UN General Assembly resolution 65/151 The Way Forward ● ●Global Political Commitment – the huge multiple benefits as drivers ● ●Country Level Action is Key – identifying what works best in each country ● ●Private Sector is Key Partner – enabling environments for investment ● ●Facilitating Decision Making – much analytic and data work needed ● ●Supporting Country Efforts – financial and capacity development huge needs

MJ/US$ GEA-Efficiency MJ/US$ GEA-Efficiency -1.7% pa -1.0% pa -1.2% pa -2.2% pa -3.3% pa -2.1% pa Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation) Final Energy Intensities

Global CO2 emissions (GtCO2) IPCC Category I GEA - Efficiency Global CO2 Emissions - (ATR) NoCCS, NoNuc Peak by 2020 reductions of 35-75% by 2050 almost zero or negative in the long term Global Carbon Emissions