Input-output analysis for assessing socioeconomic sustainability of sugarcane bioethanol production in Mozambique Marcelo Cunha, Luiz Gustavo A. de Souza & André Argollo

Input-output analysis for assessing socioeconomic sustainability of sugarcane bioethanol production in Mozambique  INTRODUCTION  SOCIAL ACCOUNT MATRIX (SAM)  INPUT-OUTPUT APPROACH  MAIN RESULTS  FINAL CONSIDERATIONS

INTRODUCTION

THE GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE BIOENERGY PROJECT (GSB)  Feasibility and desirability of sustainable bioenergy- intensive future  It is physically possible for bioenergy to sustainably meet a substantial fraction of future demand for energy services (≥ 25% of global mobility or equivalent by 2050) while feeding humanity and meeting other needs from managed lands, preserving wildlife habitat, and maintaining environmental quality?

BIOENERGY CONTRIBUTION OF LATIN AMERICA, CARIBBEAN AND AFRICA TO THE GSB PROJECT - LACAf- Cane-I  Sustainable production of Bioenergy  Availability of fertile land with good climatic conditions  Land for Bioenergy will originate from pasture  Potencially available land for bioenergy until 2050 (440 Mha) FAO (2007)  LA & Caribbean (250 Mha) and Africa (180 Mha) FAO (2007)  LACAf-Cane, evaluate bioethanol production from sugarcane and bioelectricity

BIOENERGY CONTRIBUTION OF LATIN AMERICA, CARIBBEAN AND AFRICA TO THE GSB PROJECT - LACAf- Cane-I  The focus of the LACAf-Cane-I project is on sugarcane and other energy crops  The produced feedstock is expected to be used for bioenergy: bioethanol (for gasoline substitution) and bioelectricity, both using advanced first and second- generation technologies

WHY MOZAMBIQUE?

 Biofuels are perceived to be a good alternative to fossil fuels and a pathway out of poverty for developing countries (Schut et al., 2010)  Biofuels may provide new incentives for investments in agricultural research and development, offer farmers a new source of income (Smeets et al., 2007)  Mozambique has explored the potential for renewable energy options to meet its energy needs (Jumbe et al., 2009)

WHY MOZAMBIQUE?  Is one of the fastest growing economies in sub-Saharan Africa, with a growth of around 7% per year since 90’s. (World Bank, 2008)  Despite having much more propitious agro-climatic conditions, vulnerability to chronic food insecurity is highest in the Northern provinces  36 million ha are arable, of which approximately 10% is under cultivation

WHY MOZAMBIQUE?  Because of the country’s fertile lands and favorable climate, Mozambique is attractive for agriculture, which employs 80% of the estimated 8.8 million labor force, the remaining 20% is involved in the industrial, transport, communication and service sectors (Schut et al., 2010; World Bank, 2009)  Mozambique is 100% dependent on oil imports. In 2007 around 17% of total imports value was spent in fuel and energy

WHY MOZAMBIQUE?  Biofuels are perceived to be a good alternative to fossil fuels and a pathway out of poverty for developing countries (Schut et al., 2010)  Biofuels may provide new incentives for investments in agricultural research and development, offer farmers a new source of income (Smeets et al., 2007)  Mozambique has explored the potential for renewable energy options to meet its energy needs (Jumbe et al., 2009)

WHY MOZAMBIQUE?  Mozambique produces mainly sugarcane for sugar production  Initiated in 2004, biofuel production originally dominated by small-scale farmers, now by foreign commercial  Originally the focus was primarily on jatropha biodiesel, now there is increased emphasis on bioethanol derived from sugarcane and sorghum

Source: Africametro (2015)

 Build a framework to analyze sustainable production of bioethanol  Evaluate socioeconomic impacts  The importance of households consumption  Inter-sectorial relationship  Analysis of different scenarios OBJECTIVES

THE SOCIAL ACCOUNT MATRIX FOR MOZAMBIQUE  Channing Arndt & James Thurlow (2007)  United Nations University’s World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER)  International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)  Use Tables from National Account  Govenment Budget  Payment Balance  54 products/sectors  METICAL MOZAMBIQUE = 0,0251 EURO

THE SOCIAL ACCOUNT MATRIX FOR MOZAMBIQUE

MATRIZ DE CONTABILIDADE SOCIAL PARA MOÇAMBIQUE

INPUT-OUTPUT APPROACH

 Guilhoto & Sesso Filho (2005) estimation procedure  Ethanol coefficients from Brazillian I-O Matrix  Production Multipliers – Type I and II  Building Scenarios

INPUT-OUTPUT MATRIX FOR MOZAMBIQUE I-O MATRIX

INPUT-OUTPUT MATRIX – TYPE I PRODUCTION MULTIPLIER

INPUT-OUTPUT MATRIX – TYPE II PRODUCTION MULTIPLIER

FINAL CONSIDERATIONS  INITIAL STAGE  NEXT STEPS  BUILDING AND EVALUATING SCENARIOS

Grazie! Luiz Gustavo Antonio de Souza