Sustainability and MDGs Nicolas Kosoy

Achieving Sustainable Development Short term goals: Millennium Development Goals (2015) Medium-term goals: Sustainability Transition of the Board on Sustainable Development (2050) Long-term goals: Great Transition of the Tellus Institute for a Great Transition

Short term: UN Millennium Development Goals In 2000, the United Nations General Assembly adopts 60 goals regarding peace; development; environment; human rights; the vulnerable, hungry, and poor; Africa; and the UN itself. 8 goals, 21 targets, 60 indicators.

UN Millennium Development Goals By 2015, we will … Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Goal 5: Improve maternal health Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Goal 8: Develop a Global Partnership for Development

Goal 1: Eradicate Extreme Hunger and Poverty Target 1. Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day Indicators 1. Proportion of population below $1 per day (World Bank) 2. Poverty gap ratio [incidence x depth of poverty] (World Bank) 3. Share of poorest quintile in national consumption (World Bank) Target 2. Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger 4. Prevalence of underweight children under five years of age (UNICEF-WHO) 5. Proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption (FAO)

Goal 7: Ensure Environmental Sustainability Target 9. Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programs and reverse the loss of environmental resources Indicators 25. Proportion of land area covered by forest (FAO) 26. Ratio of area protected to maintain biological diversity to surface area (UNEP-WCMC) 27. Energy use (kg oil equivalent) per $1 GDP (IEA, World Bank) 28. Carbon dioxide emissions per capita (UNFCCC, UNSD) and consumption of ozone-depleting CFCs (ODP tons) (UNEP-Ozone Secretariat) 29. Proportion of population using solid fuels (WHO) Target 10. Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation 30. Proportion of population with sustainable access to an improved water source, urban and rural (UNICEF-WHO) 31. Proportion of population with access to improved sanitation, urban and rural (UNICEF-WHO) Target 11. Have achieved by 2020 a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers 32. Proportion of households with access to secure tenure (UN-HABITAT)

UN Millennium Project Commissioned by the UN Secretary-General in 2002 to develop a concrete action plan for the world to achieve the MDGs In 2005, the independent advisory body headed by Professor Jeffrey Sachs, presented its final recommendations: “Investing in Development: A Practical Plan to Achieve the Millennium Development Goals.”

UN Millennium Project Recommendations Every country should have an explicit strategy Scale up public investment and capacity building Increase aid from rich countries “Fast track” a few countries Focus on easy wins (malaria nets, end fees for primary school) Rich countries should lower trade boundaries for poor countries It will cost an additional ~$150 billion to meet the goals.

MDGs: How are we doing? Some, we are reasonably likely to meet globally and in many parts of the world (reducing poverty by half, improving malaria prevention, increasing primary school enrollment). Others, we are likely to miss (reducing poverty in sub-Saharan Africa, improving maternal health, reducing the number of undernourished children).

Goal 1: Eradicate Extreme Hunger and Poverty Target: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day

Indicator: Proportion of population below $1 per day “The global economic crisis has slowed progress, but the world is still on track to meet the poverty reduction target.” -2010 MDG report

Goal 1: Eradicate Extreme Hunger and Poverty Target: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger “Progress to end hunger has been stymied in most regions.” -2010 MDG report

Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Target: Reduce by two thirds the mortality rate among children under five Indicator: Under-five mortality rate “Child deaths are falling, but not quickly enough to reach the target.” -2010 MDG report

Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability “The rate of deforestation shows signs of decreasing but is still alarmingly high.” -2010 MDG report

Degradation of ecosystem services is a significant barrier to achievement of MDGs Many regions facing the greatest challenges in achieving the 2015 targets coincide with regions facing the greatest problems of ecosystem degradation Although socioeconomic factors will play a primary role in achieving many of the MDGs, targets are unlikely to be met without improvement in ecosystem management Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005

Medium-Term Goals: Sustainability Transition Meeting the needs of a stabilizing future world population while reducing hunger and poverty and maintaining the planet’s life-support systems. -The Board on Sustainable Development of the US National Academy of Sciences (1999)

The sustainability Transition “Current trends of population and habitation, wealth and consumption, technology and work, connectedness and diversity, and environmental change are likely to persist well into the (21st) century and could significantly undermine the prospects for sustainability.” “Successful transition is possible over the next two generations without miracles or revolutions”

Long-term: The Great Transition Analyzed potential for a sustainability transition. It is possible without social revolution or technological miracle, but the technological and social requirements are daunting Great Transition to a high quality of life and strong ties to nature Rejection of material consumption beyond what is needed for a good life.