Francesca Perucci United Nations Statistics Division MDGs after 2015: Francesca Perucci United Nations Statistics Division

What have we learnt? Address the “missing elements” of the MD Add the economic productive component Better defined goals and targets at the global and national level Clear, well-defined measurement framework to localize the MDGs Addressing inequality issues

What have we learnt? Some of the current criticisms of the MDGs: The goals are too ambitious The MDG framework overlooks inequality and specific population groups Global targets versus national targets? The targets under Goal 8 are not numerical and do not set any specific deadlines There is too much focus on health Key elements of the MD are omitted (eg human rights) Some targets are poorly addressed (such as women’s empowerment) Some targets are poorly specified (slums)

What have we learnt? Are the indicators appropriate? Vandemoortele’s view: “The misinterpretation of the MDGs as one-size-fits-all targets has set the bar for sub-Saharan African countries unrealistically high.” Should different targets be set at the national level? Too many indicators? Too few? Monitoring requirements are a big burden to countries.

Monitoring progress: the adoption of the MD was a defining moment for the development community 2000: Member States adopted the Millennium Declaration The “road map” describes how these commitments would be fulfilled The United Nations Secretariat convenes the Inter-Agency and Expert Group on MDG Indicators (IAEG) to identify indicators to track progress The resulting set of goals, targets and indicators constitutes the Millennium Development Goal framework. 2005: At the World Summit, world leaders committed to four new targets, in addition to those contained in the Millennium Declaration The IAEG identifies the additional indicators needed to monitor progress on the new targets

The MDGs as agreed framework for development In the “Follow-up to the outcome of the Millennium Summit”, the General Assembly requested the Secretary-General to report yearly on progress achieved towards implementing the Declaration. This was done based on the MDG framework 8 Goals 18 Targets 48 Indicators The adoption of the Millennium Declaration in 2000 by all member states of the UN was a defining moment for the international community. The Declaration, the culmination of a series of international conferences and summits beginning in 1990 with the World Summit for Children, embodied a synthesis of the goals set by these international development conferences and a body of international norms and laws that had been codified over the previous half-century. The original 18 MDG targets were lifted verbatim from the Millennium Declaration and therefore represented the consensus of member states over a wide range of development areas. As reflected in the MDGs, the Declaration also represented a new approach to development, with a full recognition that development is not exclusively economic, but also embraces human social and environmental dimensions. The MDGs also reflect a shift in emphasis from inputs to results and, importantly, the Declaration set specific measurable and time-bound targets for each Goal, with progress to be measured on the basis of a list of internationally-agreed indicators. More than ten years later, the Millennium Declaration and the MDG framework for accountability that derived from it have inspired development efforts and helped set priorities and focus interventions. Over the years, other concepts have seized the attention of the development community, but rarely, if ever, there has been such a large-scale attention and support on such a broad development agenda from such a wide range of actors in both developed and developing countries. Moreover, while there are criticisms of the MDGs and differences of opinion about the weight that should be attached to them, few people, from any part of the political spectrum, now dismiss them outright.

Mapping the MDGs 8 goals 18 targets, 40+ indicators Foster pro-poor policy reforms, resources re-allocation Improve monitoring of indicators 8 goals few in number Output-based Renew support for ODA Centered on people easy to communicate 18 targets, 40+ indicators Time-bound and numerical targets for accountability Will trigger action and foster alliances

MDGs: the achievements The momentum generated by the MDGs Increased awareness of development issues Increased efforts by many donors to provide the necessary development assistance Successful targeted interventions (malaria, HIV/AIDS, measles) Increased attention to the need for strengthening statistical capacity Nevertheless, the set of goals was initially perceived by many developing countries primarily as a “top-down” initiative that was being imposed on them by the developed countries without any corresponding commitments by the developed countries themselves. Goal 8 was subsequently added to correct this imbalance, but the perceptions of the developing countries, shared by many in civil society, lingered. Although all are mentioned individually in the Millennium Declaration, the eight Millennium Development Goals are not explicitly identified as a concrete set in the Declaration itself and, while great emphasis was given to the fact that they were “quantifiable”, there was no indication of how they should be measured. the MDGs reflect donor rather than developing country preferences. More generally, it is also argued that the MDGs were developed in a top-down fashion and were a manifestation of “one-size-fits-all” in development policy, not necessarily responding to the needs and wishes of the individuals they are intended to help. Many developing countries, as well as outside observers, considered that setting the same goals and targets for countries at different stages of development was inappropriate and even unjust - countries were reluctant to be compared with others that were far ahead in their development process at the time of the Millennium Declaration. A broader reservation is that the MDGs are only a limited subset of the outcomes of the global conferences and that the development agenda is far broader. And even the MD elements are not adequately covered

MDGs: the shortcomings Criticism of the MDGs Perceived by many developing countries primarily as a “top-down” initiative Not all goals have clear numerical targets No consensus on how progress towards the targets should be measured One-size fits all is inappropriate for countries at different levels of development Only a subset of development issues emerging from global conferences is included Some elements of the MD are not included Some goals are too ambitious Little or no consideration given to their implications or feasibility at the regional or country level Nevertheless, the set of goals was initially perceived by many developing countries primarily as a “top-down” initiative that was being imposed on them by the developed countries without any corresponding commitments by the developed countries themselves. Goal 8 was subsequently added to correct this imbalance, but the perceptions of the developing countries, shared by many in civil society, lingered. Although all are mentioned individually in the Millennium Declaration, the eight Millennium Development Goals are not explicitly identified as a concrete set in the Declaration itself and, while great emphasis was given to the fact that they were “quantifiable”, there was no indication of how they should be measured. the MDGs reflect donor rather than developing country preferences. More generally, it is also argued that the MDGs were developed in a top-down fashion and were a manifestation of “one-size-fits-all” in development policy, not necessarily responding to the needs and wishes of the individuals they are intended to help. Many developing countries, as well as outside observers, considered that setting the same goals and targets for countries at different stages of development was inappropriate and even unjust - countries were reluctant to be compared with others that were far ahead in their development process at the time of the Millennium Declaration. A broader reservation is that the MDGs are only a limited subset of the outcomes of the global conferences and that the development agenda is far broader. And even the MD elements are not adequately covered

What baseline year?

MDGs Monitoring and Reporting  Global reporting: UN-DESA UN/DESA, based on inputs prepared by the various designated agencies in the UN system and the World Bank, IMF and OECD, coordinates the preparation of the global report National reporting: UNCT MDG National Reports are prepared by UN Country Teams

MDGs Monitoring and Reporting Global reporting: UN-DESA The global report is used as a basis for the Secretary-General’s report to the General Assembly Objective  provide a global assessment of progress towards the achievement of MDGs Target audience  member states National reporting: UNCT MDG National Reports are prepared by UN Country Teams Objective  raise awareness: advocate; focus national development debate on specific priorities; build national capacity for monitoring/reporting on MDGs Target audience  national policy makers, civil society, development partners

MDGs Monitoring and Reporting Selection of the indicators for MDG Monitoring Consultations among the United Nations Secretariat, IMF, the World Bank and OECD led to the selection of more than 40 indicators for the monitoring of progress towards MDGs Two subsequent inter-agency expert group meetings were held to further revise the millennium development goal indicators in March and April 2002

MDGs Monitoring and Reporting Selection of the indicators for MDG Monitoring The two inter-agency expert group meetings on the Millennium Indicators: reviewed the MDG Indicators framework discussed data availability, conceptual issues, data accuracy and measurement problem at national level discussed geographical coverage and consistency over time for the calculation/estimation of regional and global figures for the two benchmark years (1990 and 2000)

MDGs Monitoring and Reporting Selection of the indicators for MDG Monitoring The two inter-agency expert group meetings on the Millennium Indicators produced the revised list of 48 Millennium Indicators. The list was adopted by all partner agencies and the UN Secretariat for the global monitoring towards the achievement of MDGs

Millennium Indicators Why is the Millennium Indicator Set an important achievement? It proved effective in building up consensus among agencies and collaboration in data compilation It represents a first significant step in the search for harmonization and rationalization of development indicators within the UN system It is a goal/target-oriented list and so provides policy-oriented statistics It provides a framework for coordination among and within international organizations and between international organizations and countries, for statistical capacity-building

Millennium Indicators From the Millennium Indicator Set to country-relevant indicators There is concern on: The selection of the indicators and their relevance to the targets How to make MDG indicators relevant to and applicable at the country level The availability and quality of data necessary for the MDG indicators

Millennium Indicators The selection of the indicators and their relevance to the targets: a few examples Goal 3. Promote gender equality and empower women Target 4. Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and to all levels of education no later than 2015 Ind. 11 - Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector (ILO) The target does not address the whole spectrum of the goal. The indicator does not have a clear link with the target. The indicator is not completely adequate to address gender equality in the labour market. Other variables would need to be considered, such as working conditions, the levels of remuneration and wage differentials, labour legislation and social benefits, full-time versus part-time jobs, the status in employment, the importance of the informal sector/home-based work in the country, etc.

Millennium Indicators The selection of the indicators and their relevance to the targets: a few examples Goal 8. Develop a global partnership for development Target 16. In cooperation with developing countries, develop and implement strategies for decent and productive work for youth Ind. 45 - Unemployment rate of 15-to-24-year-olds, each sex and total (ILO) Unemployment is but one dimension of the employment problems faced by young people. A large number of young women and men in many countries are underemployed – either working fewer hours than they would like to, or working long hours for little economic gain. Also, economic stagnation and declining opportunities in the formal sector have resulted in a shift to work in the informal sector or in unpaid house-based work.

Millennium Indicators The process of selection of MDG Indicators had the main purpose of reaching a global consensus on ways of measuring and assessing progress in achieving development goals MDG Indicators for national reporting should be tailored to countries’ needs and circumstances

Millennium Indicators MDG Indicators for national reporting should be developed taking into account: Gender perspectives Differences among socio-economic and/or ethnic groups Specific country’s circumstances in all spheres (such as health, education and the economy)

Millennium Indicators How to make MDG indicators relevant to and applicable at the country level: a few examples Goal 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Target 1. Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than one dollar a day Ind. 1 - Proportion of population below $1(PPP) per day (World Bank) At the country level it may be more relevant to consider the different dimensions of poverty, including not only market-based consumption, but also the public provision of goods and services, access to resources, aspects related to a satisfactory life, levels of education, health and mortality, etc. This conceptualization may be more instrumental in understanding the conditions of social and economic deprivation and its gender dimension and be more informative for policy makers.

Millennium Indicators How to make MDG indicators relevant to and applicable at the country level: a few examples Goal 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Target 2. Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger Ind. 4 - Prevalence of underweight children under five years of age (UNICEF - WHO) There are countries where child malnutrition concerns only specific population groups/geographical areas. The global indicator therefore has no relevance unless appropriately disaggregated. Other specific aspects of child nutrition and well-being may be considered.

Millennium Indicators How to make MDG indicators relevant to and applicable at the country level: a few examples Goal 6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases Target 8. Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases Ind. 21 - Prevalence and death rates associated with malaria (WHO) Ind. 22 - Proportion of population in malaria risk areas using effective malaria prevention and treatment measures (UNICEF - WHO) Malaria represents a major disease when considering its toll on the world’s population or the population of specific regions and sub-regions. In most countries, however, other aspects of human health should be considered.

Millennium Indicators The availability and quality of data necessary for the MDG indicators Problems with data for MDG Indicators are related to: Lack of international standards Failure in adopting international standards at the national level Measurement problems National programmes not fully developed in specific statistical areas New statistical areas, with recent methodological development

Data availability for MDG Indicators: an example

Strengthening statistical capacity The national reporting mechanisms – MDG country reports– can help identify areas where efforts to strengthen statistical capacity are most needed One important outcome of the preparation of the MDG National Reports will be improved national capacity for national monitoring of MDGs This will help raise awareness on the need to produce policy-oriented statistics, that is, statistics to address specific goals and targets

Conclusions Keeping the global and national monitoring close together will help Identify and correct differences and inconsistencies in statistics and indicators as presented at country level and in the global report/database Incorporate inputs from countries in the global picture Identify areas for improvement in statistics and channel resources and interventions of development partners towards them

Millennium Indicators Database millenniumindicators.un.org United Nations Statistics Division

Millennium Indicators Database In close collaboration with United Nations agencies and funds, the World Bank, IMF, and OECD, UNSD maintains the database containing the series related to the selected indicators, as well as other background series intended to supplement the basic 48 Millennium indicators for more in-depth analysis.

Millennium Indicators Database The figures presented in the database are from international series compiled by the various agencies. The availability of data necessary to calculate the indicators depends on the availability and quality of data in countries When country data are not available or are affected by serious quality problems international agencies provide adjusted data or estimates

Coverage   1 year only 2 or more years GOAL 1 - Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Proportion of population below $1 (PPP) per day (WB) 82 Poverty gap ratio (WB) Share of poorest quintile in national consumption (WB) 116 1 Prevalence of underweight children under 5 (UNICEF) 133 Proportion of undernourished population (FAO) 3 97

Coverage   1 year only 2 or more years GOAL 2 - Achieve universal primary education Net enrolment ratio in primary education (UNESCO) 33 118 Prop. pupils starting grade 1 who reach grade 5 (UNESCO) 18 87 Literacy rates of 15-24 years old (UNESCO) 136

  Coverage 1 year only 2 or more years GOAL 3 - Promote gender equality and empower women Girls to boys ratio, primary level enrolment (UNESCO) 11 200 Girls to boys ratio, secondary level enrolment (UNESCO) 16 192 Girls to boys ratio, tertiary level enrolment (UNESCO) 23 151 Ratio of female over male literacy rates, aged 15-24 (UNESCO) 136 Share of women in wage employment/non-agriculture (ILO) 40 Women in parliamentary seats, per cent (IPU) 6 174

  Coverage 1 year only 2 or more years GOAL 4 - Reduce child mortality Children under five mortality rate per 1,000 live births (UNICEF) 2 191 Infant mortality rate (0-1 year) per 1,000 live births (UNICEF) Children 1 year old immunized against measles % (UNICEF) 4 183

  Coverage 1 year only 2 or more years GOAL 5 - Improve maternal health Maternal mortality ratio per 100,000 live births (WHO) 183 Births attended by skilled health personnel, per cent (UNICEF) 157

  Coverage 1 year only 2 or more years GOAL 6 - Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases HIV prevalence among pregnant women (UNAIDS) 104 Condom use rate of the contraceptive prevalence rate data being compiled AIDS orphans, cumulative (UNAIDS) 73 Malaria notified cases per 100,000 population (WHO) 109 Malaria death rate per 100,000, all ages (WHO) 191 % pop. <5 with fever being treated with anti-malarial drugs (UNICEF) 32 % use of insecticide-treated bed nets, in population <5 (UNICEF) Tuberculosis prevalence rate per 100,000 population (WHO) Tuberculosis death rate per 100,000 (WHO) Proportion of cases detected and cured under DOTS (WHO) 141

  Coverage 1 year 2 or more only years GOAL 7 - Ensure environmental sustainability Forested land area as percentage of land area (FAO estimates) 198 Ratio of protected areas to surface (UNSD calculated from UNEP) Energy use (Kg oil equivalent) per $1000 (PPP) GDP (WB) 121 Carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), per capita (UNFCCC-CDIAC) 4 213 Ozone-depleting CFCs consumption (UNEP-Ozone Secretariat) 151 Proportion of population using solid fuels (WHO) Data being compiled % pop. with access to improved water sources, urban (UNICEF) 76 86 % pop. with access to improved water sources, rural (UNICEF) 77 84 % urban pop. with access to improved sanitation (UNICEF) 70 87 Proportion of households with access to secure tenure (Habitat) n.a

Millennium Indicators Database The database also contains the global and regional figures that have been used in the preparation of the Secretary-General’s report: Implementation of the United Nations Millennium Declaration, A/57/270

Millennium Indicators Database In order to help focus analysis and assessment of progress at the country level, the Millennium indicators and background data series are also organized and presented by country in Millennium country profiles

Millennium Indicators Database Metadata are also an important component of the database. At this stage, the information includes definitions and sources for each of the indicators presented. More inputs from specialized agencies, on methodologies and related problems, will be included in the near future