German-Russian Relations as a Factor of EU‘s Eastern Policy: Goals, Consequences and Shifts of Paradigm Prof. Dr. Peter W. Schulze Institut für Politische.

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German-Russian Relations as a Factor of EU‘s Eastern Policy: Goals, Consequences and Shifts of Paradigm Prof. Dr. Peter W. Schulze Institut für Politische Wissenschaft Georg August Universität Göttingen Paper for Moskau/MEF March 2014

Options in EU-Russian Relations 1.Integration 2.Status quo 3.Modus Vivendi 4.Revision pws nov 2013 wien jur fak

Conflict Reduction -Cold War: Change through Rapprochement Germany‘s New Eastern policy: Strategic objectives: normalisation, improvement of social conditions and freer movement of German citicens from the GDR to West Germany; Instruments: acceptation of the Status quo, including post second world war borders, deescalation of conflicts and move toward normalisation of relations between Eastern and Western European states „Change through Rapprochement“ (Egon Bahr, 1963) This principle was applied from the 1970s until the new Millennium : SPD/CDU black-red coalition: Partnership in Modernisation: „Change through building networks“

Challenges to Germany‘s Eastern Policy 1.Crisis of the EU and power shift amway from the French-German Tandem toward Berlin‘s role as a „reluctant hegemon“ 2.Quality of US-Leadership is vaning; Washington needs Europe as a „strategic partner“ to shoulder challenges stemming from power shift in the international system 3.Struggle of the future: who controlls Germany- Russia a mischief-maker intruding the transatlantic relationship

Gaspipelines to EU-Europe

The Dominance of the Ukraine as a Transit Country for Russian Gas

Preisentwicklung Rohöl, Folgen für Perestroika und Transformation Oil prices, consequences for reforms in the 1980s and 1990s

GDP (est.)

Industrial Production acc. to Sectors Jan.-to July 2013 Industrial production : overall 0% a.Metallurgy-0,9% b.Machines/Investment goods -6,5% c.Electronic, Optics-5,3% d.Chemical goods3,3% e.Rubber, Plastics7,8%

Public debt

Annual New Public Debts

Investments: incoming

Total Investments Countries of Origin, Sectors

GDP in International Comparison

Russian GDP in intern Comparison GDP growth in 2012 of 3,4% will be reduced in 2013 to 1,8%; Only in 2014 there will be growth decline to – minus 0,7 %, eventually reaching 2,7% in In comparison: China 2012, growth of 7,8% Indian growth of 5,4% Russia on the lower rang in BRICS-grouping

Trade : Germany‘s Exports to Russia by economic sectors

Russia‘s Exports to global markets

Imports to Russia

German direct Investments in Russia

Russian Trade: Imports according to world regions

Exports according to world regions

Trade EU -27 with Russia: Export/Import of Goods /EU/Russia

Russian Imports according to products

Russian Exports according to world products

Foreign Trade Proportion of Customs Union with Member States 2008 – 2011, % of trade) Zagorski

Russia’s trade with CIS 1994 – 2010 Bill. USD and % of Export and Imp ort

EU and Russia: Trade with the Ukraine 2012