Effects of the 3- Hour Tarmac Delay Rule Yi-Hsin Lin 15 December Final Project

The Tarmac-Delay Rule Response to series of highly publicized delays o Valentine’s Day 2007: 28 flights with tarmac delays over 3 hours Tarmac delays of over three hours result in a fine of up to $27,500 per passenger Requires airlines to provide food, water, working lavatories, and medical care if necessary to passengers for tarmac delays over two hours Exceptions for safety, security, and air traffic control restrictions, but each case is reviewed by DOT Rule went into effect on April 29, 2010

First Fine: American Eagle First fine was issued last month: to American Eagle for 15 flights delayed at ORD on arrival ORD departures cancelled due to weather No gates available for arriving flights 608 passengers affected Fined $900,000 Fine was much less than $16.7 million max

Tarmac delays over 3 hours

Success! But it’s not that simple… DOT says tarmac rule has been highly successful Airlines and some analysts claim that the rule is worse for consumers 1.Increased cancellation rates o May 2009-April 2010: of flights (1.6%) o May 2010-April 2011: of flights (1.9%) 2.More unnecessary gate returns  Longer delays

A Note on Datasets Data comes from the BTS website ( Does not contain all US domestic flights, only major carriers Data from 2007 through September 2011

Monthly Tarmac Delays and Cancellation Rates Tarmac delays over 3 hours Cancellation Rate (%) 5/09-4/10: 1.6%5/10-4/11: 1.9%5/08-4/09: 1.7%

Taxi-out Delays by Origin (2007)

Monthly Delays and Cancellation Rates (JFK) Tarmac delays over 3 hours Cancellation Rate (%) 5/09-4/10: 2.6%5/10-4/11: 3.2%5/08-4/09: 2.8% Without 27 December 2010 snowstorm: 2.9%

Daily Tarmac Delays and Cancellation Rates (JFK) Tarmac delays over 3 hours Cancellation Rate (%) June 2009 June 2011

Gate Return Statistics (JFK) 5/2008-4/20095/2009-4/20105/2010-4/20111/2011-9/2011 Dates (N = 5) Gate Returns (N = 5) GR  Departure (N = 5) 85 (88.5%)312 (80.6%)344 (84.9%)337 (83.6%) Dates (N = 10) Gate Returns (N = 10) GR  Departure (N = 10) -79 (63.2%)78 (75.0%)180 (78.3%) Without 31 December 2009 snowstorm, 72.4%.

Tarmac Times for Gate Returns (JFK) All gate returns Gate returns resulting in departures Counts

Conclusions Drastic decrease in long tarmac delays Increase in cancellation rate unclear Few gate returns resulting in longer delays DOT has been reasonable in enforcing the rule Rule doesn’t solve underlying congestion problem Questions? Comments?

Valentine’s Day 2007 Massive snowstorm affecting the northeast At JFK, 287 out of 336 departures cancelled (85.4%) Of 49 remaining departures, 16 had taxi out times more than 3 hours o JetBlue flight 623 to HOU sat on tarmac for 7+ hours 253 out of 335 arrivals cancelled (75.5%) Of 82 remaining arrivals, 8 diverted and 12 had taxi in times more than 3 hours o JetBlue 850 from RSW sat on tarmac for 9+ hours hour tarmac delays in 2007 o hour tarmac delays at JFK

Case Study: 26 June 2009 vs. 9 June 2011 Friday, 26 June 2009, 20ZThursday, 9 June 2011, 20Z

Traffic Management Initiatives 26 June June : FCAA08, 20-2Z 1528: GDP, 20-3Z 2043: GS, till 22Z 2122: GS, extend till 23Z 2216: FCAA08, 20-3Z 2348: GDP, till 5Z 1625: FCAA05, 18-3Z 1628: FCAA08, 18-3Z 1831: GDP, 21-2Z 1857: GS, till 20Z 2004: GDP, till 3Z 2211: GS, till 23Z 2248: GS, extend till 0Z Times are in UTC = EST + 4.

Case Study: 26 June 2009 vs. 9 June June June 2011 Scheduled departures Cancellations (%)38 (10.0%)30 (10.9%) Scheduled arrivals Cancellations (%)40 (10.5%)14 (5.2%) Gate Returns933 GR  Cancellation19 GR  Departure824