A re-interpretation of the influence of the Atlantic Ocean on the climate of the Sahel Atlantic sector climate variability over the last millennium and.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
6 th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones Topic 4.1: Variability of Tropical Cyclone Activity/Intensity on Intraseasonal and Interannual Scales.
Advertisements

Remote Influences on the Tropical Atlantic Climate System R. Saravanan National Center for Atmospheric Research (Collaborators: Alessandra Giannini, NCAR;
Understanding Sahel Rainfall Variability: Progress and Challenges Michela Biasutti in collaboration with Alessandra Giannini.
Uganda’s climate: change and variability Prof Chris Reason, UCT & Lead Author, WG1 AR5 Regional circulation and climate Climate variability Long-term projections.
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.
1 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.
A unifying view of climate change in the Sahel linking intra-seasonal, inter-annual and longer time scales Alessandra Giannini, Seyni Salack, Tiganadaba.
The Role of Internally Generated Megadroughts and External Solar Forcing in Long Term Pacific Climate Fluctuations Gerald A. Meehl NCAR.
PDO research: a few new insights into lingering questions and a simple method for 1 year forecasting Nate Mantua Climate Impacts Group October 21, 2003.
This model predicts wetter conditions over the Sahel, and drier conditions along the Guinean coast in the 21 st century. This is opposite to what is expected.
Climate Change in the Sahel Michela Biasutti in collaboration with : Alessandra Giannini, Adam Sobel, Isaac Held.
UN ECA - CILSS – ACMAD - IRI Conference on Reduction of vulnerability of West Africa to climate change Ouagadougou, January A climate scientist's.
May 2007 vegetation Kevin E Trenberth NCAR Kevin E Trenberth NCAR Weather and climate in the 21 st Century: What do we know? What don’t we know?
Climate and Food Security Thank you to the Yaqui Valley and Indonesian Food Security Teams at Stanford 1.Seasonal Climate Forecasts 2.Natural cycles of.
Protecting our Health from Climate Change: a Training Course for Public Health Professionals Chapter 2: Weather, Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate.
Impact of Sea Surface Temperature and Soil Moisture on Seasonal Rainfall Prediction over the Sahel Wassila M. Thiaw and Kingtse C. Mo Climate Prediction.
NOAA/NSTA Web Seminar: The Ocean’s Role in Weather and Climate LIVE INTERACTIVE YOUR DESKTOP.
Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa Dec 2012 Initial Conditions Summary Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.
Lesson 11: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Physical Oceanography
Page 1 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Evidence for the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as an internal climate mode from coupled GCM simulations.
© Crown copyright Met Office CLIVAR Climate of the 20 th Century Project Adam Scaife, Chris Folland, Jim Kinter, David Fereday January 2009.
Understanding physical processes linked to climate variability and change in the South America Monsoon System Carolina Vera 1, C. Junquas 1,2, H. Le Treut.
Sub-Saharan rainfall variability as simulated by the ARPEGE AGCM, associated teleconnection mechanisms and future changes. Global Change and Climate modelling.
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Its Climate Impacts in CMIP3 Models and Observations Mingfang Ting With Yochanan Kushnir, Richard Seager, Cuihua.
1. Global monsoon features Australian monsoon South American monsoon North American monsoon African monsoon Asian monsoon 2. Northern China winter drought.
Seasonal Climate Cycles Precipitation. Precipitation Cycle NOTE THE FOLLOWNG LOW RAINFALL YEAR-ROUND OVER MOST OF TROPICAL OCEANS SPARSE RAINFALL YEAR-ROUND.
Regions of Texas. 4 Regions Blue – Gulf Coastal Plains Red – North Central Plains Yellow – Great Plains Green – Mountains and Basins.
Inter-annual to decadal climate prediction Mojib Latif, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University.
The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 10 January.
Drought in the African Sahel: scientific research and societal implications Alessandra Giannini International Research Institute for Climate and Society.
Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, Jan 2013 Initial Conditions Summary Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.
Seasonal Cycle, Monsoons and Tropical Convergence Zones Vernon E. Kousky NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center February 2013.
0 Weekly Climate Update August 26 th, 2008  The July 2008 tropical season was the third most active July on record. Only 1916 and 2005 were more active.
Equatorial Circulation and Tropical Atlantic Variability during the Tropical Atlantic Climate Experiment Peter Brandt 1, Andreas Funk 2, Alexis Tantet.
Drought in the African Sahel Alessandra Giannini 4 December 2006.
Climate Diagnostics and Modeling
Two-year oscillation of monsoon rainfall and global climate in the present decade Debasis Sengupta, Arathy Menon CAOS, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore.
Sahel Climate Change in the IPCC AR4 models Michela Biasutti in collaboration with : Alessandra Giannini, Adam Sobel, Isaac.
Evaluation of RM3 Weather Forecasts over Western Africa Dr. Leonard M. Druyan 1 ; Dr. Matthew B. Fulakeza 1 ; Ruben Worrell 2 ; Kristal Quispe 3, and Kush.
CLIVAR and GECAFS Anji Seth International Research Institute For Climate Prediction (IRI)
Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, June 2013 Initial Conditions Issued 9 July 2013 Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current.
Paper review R CHC. [Van Loon and Shea, 1985/1987] Covarying warm SST and low SLP anomalies in the western and central subtropical South Pacific.
R CHC. Outline ENSO – EP and CP ENSO ACW – ACW – ENSO and ACW GEW – GEW – ACW and GEW – ENSO and GEW – ENSO and GEW and ACW Indian Ocean – ENSO.
The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 04 May 2009 For more information, visit:
Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales A. Giannini (IRI) R. Saravanan (NCAR) and P. Chang (Texas A&M) IRI for climate.
African Monsoon Wassila M. Thiaw NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center 21 February 2012 CPC International Desks Training Lecture Series.
The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 07 July 2008 For more information, visit:
What is the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO)?
Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) © Crown copyright 09/2015 | Met Office and the Met Office logo are registered trademarks Met Office FitzRoy Road,
Application of T382 CFS Forecasts for Dynamic Hurricane Season Prediction J. Schemm, L. Long, S. Saha and S. Moorthi NOAA/NWS/NCEP October 21, 2008 The.
The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 August 2008 For more information, visit:
Analysis and modelling of the 2010 Pakistan heavy precipitation events Milind Mujumdar Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR), Indian Institute of Tropical.
Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment by P. J. Webster, G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, and H.-R. Chang Science.
18th September 2012Clim. of the month, summer Climate of the month July-August 2012 Isabel Andreu-Burillo with the help of Virginie, Fabian, Mingu.
NAME SWG th Annual NOAA Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop State College, Pennsylvania Oct. 28, 2005.
The Great 20 th Century Drying of Africa Ninth Annual CCSM Workshop Climate Variability Working Group 9 July 2004, Santa Fe Jim Hurrell, Marty Hoerling,
Sahel Rainfall change in the future? Papers review.
TAV / PIRATA-17 Meeting, Kiel, Germany
Modes of climate Variability
MONSOONS AND OCEAN CURRENTS Figure 10.15
The role of mid and high latitude air-sea interactions
Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science
Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, and Sumant Nigam
ENSO and its impact on eastern/southern African climate:
Oceanic Influences on Climate
Session D6: Process Based Evaluation of the West African Monsoon in CORDEX Projections Goal: Assess components of the West African Monsoon that are both.
Monsoonal impacts on the Pacific climate and its
Climatology of the Tropics
20th Century Sahel Rainfall Variability in IPCC Model Simulations and Future Projection Mingfang Ting With Yochanan Kushnir, Richard Seager, Cuihua Li,
CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN EASTERN AFRICA; Its causes and relationship to ENSO By Z.K.K. Atheru AND C. Mutai Drought Monitoring Centre, Nairobi (DMCN) April.
Presentation transcript:

A re-interpretation of the influence of the Atlantic Ocean on the climate of the Sahel Atlantic sector climate variability over the last millennium and the near-term future Wednesday, October 17, 2012, Lamont hall Alessandra Giannini, IRI

Zeng, Science 2003 The canonical view on the influence of the Atlantic Ocean on the West African monsoon

Giannini, A, R Saravanan, P Chang, 2005 in Clim. Dyn. Variability in Sahel rainfall – the West African monsoon (25% in obs, 21% in ens-mean)

Variability in Sahel rainfall: separation of interdecadal and interannual time scales Giannini, A, R Saravanan, P Chang, 2003 in Science

Variability in Gulf of Guinea rainfall – linked to the oceanic ITCZ (15% in obs, 32% in ens-mean) Giannini, A, R Saravanan, P Chang, 2005 in Clim. Dyn.

green – Sahel rainfall blue – north Atlantic SST (minus global mean) red – equatorial Indian Ocean SST (with sign reversed) The relative roles of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans

Models say that IF the subtropical North Atlantic warms up more than the global tropics, then the Sahel could get wetter… Past Green: end 20 th century – pre-Industrial Blue: end – beginning 20 th century Future Yellow: mid-21 st (A1B) – end 20 th Red: end 21 st – end 20 th

Zeng, Science 2003 A re-interpretation… We need to consider all ocean basins simultaneously, rather than independently, look at relative changes between basins.  Global tropical oceans set the threshold for convection  Local ocean [in the case of the Sahel, the Atlantic] provides the moisture to meet the threshold

Feedback: Privacy Policy Feedback
Do Not Sell My Personal Information
About project: SlidePlayer Terms of Service

© 2024 SlidePlayer.com. Inc. All rights reserved.