Mark A. Ruffalo, Marco Krapels, Mark Z. Jacobson Planning for a Sustainable Future With Wind, Water and the Sun Nantucket Project 2012, Nantucket, Mass., October 7, 2012

What’s the Problem? Why act Quickly? Air pollution kills million people worldwide each year. Arctic sea ice may disappear in years. Global temperatures are rising at a faster rate than any time in history. Increasing population is increasing pollution, global warming, and energy prices. Higher energy prices lead to economic, social, political instability  Drastic problems require immediate and definite solutions

ELECTRIC POWERVEHICLES Recommended – Wind, Water, Sun (WWS) 1. Wind2. CSPWWS-Battery-Electric 3. Geothermal4. TidalWWS-Hydrogen Fuel Cell 5. PV6. Wave 7. Hydroelectricity Not Recommended NuclearCorn, cellulosic, sugarcane ethanol Coal-CCSSoy, algae biodiesel Natural gas, biomass Compressed natural gas Cleanest Solutions to Global Warming, Air Pollution, Energy Security Energy & Env. Sci, 2, 148 (2009)

WORLD U.S. NYS 2010 (TW) with current fuels converting all energy To wind-water-sun (WWS) and electricty/H reduction (%) due to WWS End Use Power Demand For All Purposes

TECHNOLOGYPCT SUPPLY 2030NUMBER 5-MW onshore wind turbines10% MW offshore wind turbines4012,700 5-kW Res. roof PV systems 65 million 100-kW com/gov roof PV systems12500, MW Solar PV plants MW CSP plants MW geothermal plants MW hydro plants (89% in place) 1-MW tidal turbines MW wave devices % Number of Plants or Devices to Power NYS

Area to power 100% of NYS for all purposes with WWS Solar PV+CSP power plants 0.85% of NYS All rooftop PV (0.45% of NYS) Onshore wind: footprint=0.05 km 2 spacing=1.46% of NYS (blue is open space) Geothermal 0.01% of NYS Offshore wind: spacing= 4.62% of NYS (blue is open space)

Dvorak et al., 2011 New York State Wind Resources

Hart and Jacobson (2011); Matching Power Demand With Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Hydro California electricity was found to be obtainable from WWS for 99.8% of all hours in 2005, 2006 without over-sizing WWS capacity, using demand-response, or using much CSP storage.

ENERGY TECHNOLOGY Wind onshore4-7≤4 Wind offshore Wave >> Geothermal Hydroelectric44 CSP Solar PV Tidal>>115-7 Conventional (+Externalities)7 (+5.3)= (+5.7)= Costs of Energy, Including Transmission (¢/kWh) Jacobson & Delucchi (2011)

Five states with highest percent of electric power from wind +2 ¢/kWh Remaining 45 states+3.6 ¢/kWh  States with greatest increases in percent of electricity from wind experienced lowest electric power price increases. Costs Increase of Residential Electric Power

Health Cost Savings due to WWS in NYS Air pollution kills 4000/year in NYS, costing $33 billion/year, or 3% of NYS GDP NYS needs ~270 GW ($570 billion) of installed power to convert to WWS for all purposes. Health cost savings alone would pay for WWS in ~17 y July 15, 2012 by DS Jacobson

New Jobs and Price Stability From WWS in NYS WWS will generate 71,000 permanent jobs/year for energy facilities alone. Since >98% WWS will be in NYS but most fossils are from out of state, conversion to WWS increases NYS jobs. Since WWS fuels are free, their prices do not fluctuate. Info.ussolarinstitute.com

Converting to WWS and electricity/H 2 will reduce NYS power demand ~37%  Eliminate ~4000 air pollution deaths/yr in NYS  Reduce air pollution cost to NYS by $33 billion/yr (3% of GDP)  Reduce global warming cost to NYS by $3.2 billion/yr by 2050  Generate 71,000 permanent jobs/yr for energy facilities alone. Economic electricity costs of WWS are now lower than those of fossil fuels Requires only 0.96% more NYS land for footprint; 1.46% for spacing Multiple methods of addressing WWS variability. Summary of Plan to Power NYS with WWS