Results for the six months to 30 June 2015 July 2015 Katherine Garrett-Cox Chief Executive Simon Clements Manager, Equity Portfolio Patrick Mill Managing Director, Alliance Trust Savings
H overview Focus on equity portfolio: -Equity exposure increased to 100% -Increased conviction by reducing portfolio to below 70 stocks Equity underperformance vs MSCI ACWI adversely affected in Q2 by weakness in some income holdings -Sharp increase in bond yields in June -Equity portfolio has outperformed benchmark since restructuring in late 2014* ATS grew assets by 12% organically -Losses reduced H1 on H1 -Stocktrade deal increasing assets by a further 60% - Completion in H We remain confident that our investment approach will deliver over the long term * Source: Alliance Trust. Data as at 20 July 2015
Financial highlights – H H1 2015H Total Shareholder Return2.7%0.4% Net Asset Value (NAV) Total Return1.4%0.3% 30 Jun Dec 2014% change Share price484.8p478.9p 1.2% NAV per share545.9p546.8p-0.2% Discount to NAV11.2%12.4% Quarterly dividend per share2.5325p2.4585p3.0% Indicated annual ordinary dividend10.13p9.83p3.0% 3 Source: Alliance Trust
Performance chart to 30 June Source: Alliance Trust, FactSet & Morningstar Note: Peer group is AIC Global Sector NAV underperforming global sector during period TSR outperforming Global Sector index over 5 years
Contribution analysis – H Source: Alliance Trust and FactSet Equities contributed majority of return, with asset weighting increased towards end of the period Fixed Income & Other Investments generated positive returns Contribution Analysis (%) Average Weight Rate of Return Contribution to Total Return Equity Portfolio Fixed Income Other Investments Cash & Accruals Gearing Expenses-0.35 Share Buy-backs0.02 NAV Total Return1.38 Discount Effect1.35 Share Price Total Return2.73 MSCI ACWI Total Return2.09
Alliance Trust – a distinctive investment approach Experienced investment team with a clear, differentiated strategy Investing in well-managed businesses, favouring those with long-term, sustainable business models Businesses that are more sustainable are better placed to grow faster than the market Our expertise and understanding of social and environmental issues means we are well positioned to deliver for investors over the long term 6 Investing in high quality companies, generating a combination of capital growth and a rising income
Equity portfolio positioning and targets We target outperformance of MSCI ACWI by 1% - 2% -Equates to top of the 2nd quartile in the peer group over three years We target a dividend yield from the equity portfolio above the index benchmark 7
Equity portfolio performance Performance in H months to end June 2015 performance was -57 bps Stock Selection was negative with Materials and Technology the two weakest sectors Sector Allocation was positive: o/w Healthcare, u/w Energy Regional Allocation was negative; u/w Pan- Asia 8 Performance since 30 Sept 2014 To 17 July bps, driven by positive stock selection in Healthcare and Financials Targeting 1% outperformance relative to MSCI ACWI in 2015 Source: Alliance Trust & FactSet
Investment activity – Energy sector Sector Thesis: “new normal” means the oil price remains range bound with an $85 oil price ceiling We look for companies that: -Have adjusted their business models for the new normal -Can generate free cash flow at lower oil prices -Can produce a healthy buffer between their free cash flow and their dividend yield We avoid companies that: -Chase production growth, particularly production in assets that depend on a high oil price -We feel carry risk, from a political, execution and environmental perspective 9 Largest holdings% Equity portfolioNew positionsPositions exited Enterprise Product Partners1.5%StatoilENI Statoil1.2%Noble Energy Total SA1.1% Source: Alliance Trust. Data as at 30 June 2015
Energy sector example: Statoil 10 ActionAnalysis Restructuring plan was implemented in early 2014, targeting significant cost savings and capital efficiency initiatives The company had adjusted its business model before the crash in oil Improvements in the quality of their capital investment Driving a doubling of ROE by 2018 FCF to grow 30% CAGR in next 3 years despite “new normal” Ensures a strong balance sheet and underpins a consistent and sustainable dividend New producing assets primarily in NorwayCarries little geopolitical risk, and environmental risk management is considered best in class 5%+ dividend yield well underpinned
Investment activity – Information Technology sector Big Data and Cloud Computing Data growth is exploding and is expected to grow 10x between 2013 and 2020, (40% CAGR) and more than half will be stored in the Cloud Cloud computing is a highly cost effective and energy efficient solution in the digital age We look for companies / industries that: -enable the build-out of Cloud infrastructure -have adjusted for the Cloud computing age We avoid companies with legacy offerings which are no longer cost competitive in the Cloud computing age 11 Largest holdings% Equity portfolioNew positionsPositions exited Accenture2.7%Seagate Technology Equinix1.4% Seagate Technology1.3% Source: Alliance Trust. Data as at 30 June 2015
Technology sector example: Seagate Technology Industry consolidation in HDD sector leaves 2 key players, each with 40%+ market share (Seagate and Western Digital) 2 segments, PC has been contracting, but demand from “hyper” client growing at 15%+ (Cloud computing super data centres). The business is on verge of returning to growth High return, well run business Attractive dividend (4.5%), an industry leader, with growth returning, driven by two thematic drivers: -cloud computing -efficiency in the data centre industry 12
Equity portfolio risk characteristics 13 Source: Barra and FactSet. Data as at 30 June 2015 † Weightings are calculated on a look-through basis whereby the Trust’s exposure is combined with that of its holdings in Alliance Trust Investments’ funds in order to calculate total exposure. Active ExposureSector Allocation (%) † Portfolio volatility:11.7% Benchmark volatility:11.6% Tracking error:2.44% Beta:0.98 Active Share:89% Portfolio yield:2.7% Portfolio Style (%)
Equity portfolio characteristics 14 Source: Bloomberg Data as at 30 June 2015 Return on AssetsReturn on Equity Return on Invested Capital Operating Margin Long Term Debt/CapitalAsset Turnover
ATS update 15 H1 AUA +12% to £7.2bn Stocktrade adds £4.6bn AUA and 45k customers Revenue up 8%, operating losses reduced to (£0.2m) New technology which will go live over the summer Development of 3 rd distribution channel – D2C, Intermediaries & Partnerships Develop the proposition to maximise the benefits of the banking licence to appeal to a wider target audience Deliver meaningful profit from 2016 Source: Alliance Trust. Data as at 30 June 2015
Looking ahead Enlarged Board of Directors -Anthony Brooke & Rory Macnamara formally appointed on 24 June Search for one additional Non-Executive Director progressing well Collation and analysis of investor feedback -Board anticipates announcing intended changes in Autumn Build on progress at ATS -Integration of Stocktrade and roll out of new platform technology Strong focus on capital growth and rising dividend -Conviction in long-term, sustainable approach 16
Important information The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and are not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed. The Trust has underlying holdings which are denominated in currencies other than Sterling and therefore may be affected by movements in exchange rates. Consequently, the value of these investments may rise or fall in line with exchange rates. Whilst care has been taken in compiling the content of this presentation, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Alliance Trust as to its accuracy or completeness. Some slides may been compiled from external sources. Whilst these sources are believed to be reliable, the information has not been independently verified and therefore no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness. The opinions expressed are those held by Alliance Trust at date of issue and are subject to change. Examples used are to demonstrate our investment philosophy and should not be interpreted as recommendations to buy or sell. Alliance Trust may borrow to finance further investment (gearing). The use of gearing is likely to lead to volatility in the Net Asset Value (NAV) meaning that a relatively small movement, down or up, in the value of the Trust’s assets will result in a magnified movement, in the same direction, of that NAV. This may mean that you could get back nothing at all. Alliance Trust PLC is listed on the London Stock Exchange and is registered in Scotland No SC1731. Registered office, 8 West Marketgait, Dundee DD1 1QN. Alliance Trust PLC is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Alliance Trust PLC gives no financial or investment advice. 17
Appendices 18
Performance stats to 20 July Source: Alliance Trust, FactSet & Morningstar Note: Peer group is AIC Global Sector
Investment process 20 Identify high quality companies from around the world, with strong long-term prospects Select those which are significantly undervalued Construct a high conviction, diversified portfolio To generate growth of capital and income Source: Alliance Trust
Key investment themes Climate Change Quality of Life Sustainable Consumption Resilience Every major economy has legislation in place to decarbonise and improve energy efficiency. Sectors: Transport, Energy, IT, Automotive, Construction Lifestyle diseases account for more premature deaths than infectious diseases globally. Education drives economic success. Sectors: Healthcare, Food Producers, Education Population and affluence are increasing. To keep resource consumption and pollution levels stable, efficiency needs to improve rapidly. Sectors: Industrials, Utilities, Automotive, Transport, Chemicals Successful economies need to be robust and secure. Companies involved in protection, security, and stability will flourish. Sectors: IT, Retail, Automotive, Finance, Testing Companies 21 Source: Alliance Trust
Analysing environmental, social and governance factors Product rating – Are the companies’ core products/services helpful or harmful to society and the environment? Management rating – Do the companies have structures, policies & practices in place to manage ESG risks? 22 Source: Alliance Trust
Investment team’s portfolio of funds 23 Fund name£m 6 months quartile ranking 3 year quartile ranking 5 year quartile ranking Alliance Trust PLC3, Sustainable Future Managed Fund Monthly Income Bond Fund37422NA Sustainable Future Corporate Bond Fund UK Ethical Fund Sustainable Future UK Growth Fund Sustainable Future European Growth Fund Sustainable Future Pan-European Equity Fund Sustainable Future Global Growth Fund Sustainable Future Absolute Growth Fund Dynamic Bond Fund92NA Sustainable Future Defensive Managed Fund122NA Sustainable Future Cautious Managed Fund122NA Less Trust holdings and cross holdings in ATI funds(291) Total5,475 Past performance is not a guide to future returns Source: Alliance Trust Investments Data as at 30 June 2015
Attribution H Alliance TrustMSCI All Country World Index Average Weight Total Return Average Weight Total Return Sector Allocation Effect Stock Selection Effect Total Relative Effect Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities Total Source: Alliance Trust and FactSet