Prior to Start of Session 5 Start your computers Launch browser Login to Changing Planet web portal – Look in session 5 of “Workshop Notebook” and download “Spreadsheet for CO2 decomposition.” Open the spreadsheet and minimize its window Keep your browser and the spreadsheet open – we’ll use them during the session

Greenhouse Gases Past, Present and Future Session 5(a) Neil Leary Changing Planet Study Group July 19-22, 2010 Cooling the Liberal Arts Curriculum A NASA-GCCE Funded Project

Source: UNEP, GRID/Arendal, Vital Climate Graphics, Carbon Cycle

“Keeling Curve.” Average monthly CO2 concentration (red) and 12 month moving average (blue). This figure was created by Robert Rohde from published data.

Industrial revolution and the atmosphere Carbon dioxideMethane Nitrous Oxide Source: IPCC 2007, WGI, Figure SPM-1.

Last Ice Age Last Interglacial Carbon Dioxide (ppmv) Thousands of Years Before Present [Adapted from Figure 6.3, © IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4] CO 2 Concentration

All GHG emissions in CO 2 e, excluding emissions from land-use change and forestry.

Per Capita CO 2 Emissions Source: World Bank online database, 2004

CO 2 emissions growth, Excludes emissions from land use change and forestry. Source: WRI-CAIT database, July 2010,

IPCC Scenario Storylines Source: derived from IPCC SRES, 2000.

Projections of CO 2 Emissions and Concentrations Source: IPCC, 2001, WGI Report, Figure 5

Projections of GHG Emissions and Changes in Global Mean Surface Temperature Source: IPCC, 2007, Synthesis Report, Figure SPM-5

Source: IPCC 2001, Synthesis Report, Figure SPM-10b

CAIT/WRI Climate Analysis Indicators Tool Login to CAIT: Explore data and tools using navigation bar on left

Download and graph data Click “Countries & Regions” Select “Countries” Highlight 10 countries Click [>>] Select “Display My Countries/Regions” Click [Save Changes]

Get data for CO 2, CO 2 w/ LUCF, All GHGs Select “GHG Emissions” Use buttons to select CO2. Sort list of countries alphabetically Select “Download” Open the downloaded spreadsheet – Look in downloads folder Repeat for CO2 w/ LUCF Repeat for All GHGs Copy emissions data into one spreadsheet

Source: chart constructed with data from WRI-CAIT database, July 2010,

Top 10 emitters: total, per capita and per $ gdp RankCO2 Total from EnergyCO2 per capitaCO2/$GDP 1USAQatarNauru 2ChinaKuwaitUzbekistan 3EU (27)UAEN Korea 4Russian FedBahrainTurkmenistan 5JapanLuxembourgSerbia & Mont 6IndiaUSAMongolia 7GermanyTrinidad & TobKazakhstan 8CanadaAustraliaUkraine 9UKCanadaChina 10S KoreaSaudi ArabiaIraq*

Essential principles of GHGs (1) (Or: what should our students learn?) CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O have natural & human sources Human sources: mostly burning fossil energy, clearing land, agriculture Emissions have grown rapidly since mid-19 th century Capacity of Earth systems to process has been exceeded; concentrations growing. – CO 2 concentration now higher than past 800k years or longer – Stabilizing emissions will not stabilize concentrations Emissions growth driven by population, per capita income, energy intensity, carbon intensity

Essential principles of GHGs (2) (Or: what should our students learn?) 25 countries responsible for 80% of emissions Developed countries account for majority of past & current emissions – Emissions growth most rapid in developing world; will exceed developed countries soon – Per capita emissions several times lower! Emission profiles differ in North and South – North: CO 2 from energy – South: significant CH 4, N 2 O from land use, agriculture If no agreement to cut global emissions, GHGs will warm planet 1-6 o C by 2100

Useful Resources WRI website: – CAIT and CAIT-US databases & tools – Baumert, Herzog, Pershing (2005) – EarthTrends database USEPA website: – Official inventories of US GHG emissions – Lots of other information about climate change

Extra Slides

Global mean radiative forcings in 2005 relative to 1750 with 90% confidence intervals (W m -2 ). Source: IPCC 2007 WG1, Figure 2.20

Source: Baumert, Herzog and Pershing, 2005.

IPCC (2007), Figure 5, WG1 SPM

IPCC (2007), chapter 10, Figure Multi-model mean annual surface warming relative to

IPCC (2007), Figure 7 SPM. Multi-model average changes in DJF and JJA precipitation for relative to

Source: IPCC 2007, WGIII Report, Figure SPM-2 Global trends in CO2 emissions, income, population, energy intensity and carbon intensity

Kaya Identity & decomposition CO2 = Pop x GDP/Pop x E/GDP x C/E Emissions = population x per capita income x energy intensity x carbon intensity For small changes: % Δ CO2 = % Δ population + % Δ per capita income + % Δ energy intensity +% Δ carbon intensity