Dr Peter Johnston  Director Research and Analysis  Department of Corrections

Who?What?In what form?How to measure?Value? Corrections’ target: Between 2011 and June 2017, reducing re-offending by 25% THE OUTCOME: REDUCING RE-OFFENDING Reconvicted offenders (over 12 months to March 31)

Who?What?In what form?How to measure?Value? Who are the right “targets” for rehabilitation? What should rehabilitation focus on? How best to deliver services? Are services producing positive impacts? Is the result “value for money”? CORE QUESTIONS IN THE REHAB “INVESTMENT EQUATION”

Who?What?In what form?How to measure?Value?Who? 8,700 Prisoners 35,000 Community-sentenced WHO TO TARGET? More than 450,000 person records

Who?What?In what form?How to measure?Value?Who? 8,700 Prisoners 35,000 Community-sentenced THE CENTRALITY OF RISK

Who?What?In what form?How to measure?Value?Who? VARIABILITY IN RISK BirthAge 26

Who?What?In what form?How to measure?Value?Who? VARIABILITY IN RISK Assault (first offence) Custody remand Sentenced to imprisonment Released onto Parole Community sentence Robbery offence Parole period ends

Who?What?In what form?How to measure?Value?Who? TYPICAL OFFENDER TIMELINES Recidivist burglars Lower risk offenders

Who?What?In what form?How to measure?Value?What? OFFENDING-RELATED NEEDS

Who?What?In what form?How to measure?Value?In what form? PROGRAMMES AND SERVICES AVAILABLE TO OFFENDERS Alcohol & Drug Brief & intermediate interventions Drug treatment units (DTUs - 3m & 6m formats) High Risk/High Intensity Special treatment unit rehabilitative programmes (STURP) violent offenders personality-disordered offenders child sex offenders adult sex offenders Young offenders programme Saili Matagi (for violent Pacific offenders) Medium Risk/Medium Intensity Medium-intensity rehabilitative programme (MIRP) Kowhiritanga (MIRP for women) Mauri Tu Pae (Maori Therapeutic Prog) Family violence programmes Short motivational programme Short rehabilitative programme Te Tirohanga (Maori focus units) Pacific focus unit

Who?What?In what form?How to measure?Value?In what form? PROGRAMMES AND SERVICES AVAILABLE TO OFFENDERS Reintegration support services (mainly for prisoners at time of release) “Self-care” pre-release unit placement Release-to-work “Out of gate” prisoner navigation/support service Supported accommodation (short-term) “Work and living skills” courses Drivers’ license Education Literacy/numeracy ed. School qualifications Trade training qualifications Tertiary-level study In-prison industry placements Farming / forestry Joinery / timber Manufacturing Engineering Catering / kitchen

Who?What?In what form?How to measure?Value?How to measure? REHABILITATION QUOTIENT (RQ) METHOD  statistical measure of programme effects (reduced reoffending)  conducted separately on specific rehab programmes and services  based on rates of reconviction and re-imprisonment for new offences within 12 months of release or programme end  compares reconviction and re-imprisonment rates (RI) of a comparable group of offenders who did/did not not receive that rehabilitative programme or intervention  percentage-point differences in rates between treatment and comparison group = programme “effect size”  can also be calculated based on re-offending seriousness

Who?What?In what form?How to measure?Value?How to measure? CALCULATING REOFFENDING RATES

Who?What?In what form?How to measure?Value?How to measure? Did not complete programme RQ PROPENSITY SCORE MATCHING Completed programme Offenders are matched on risk: age, sex, ethnicity age at first conviction number of previous convictions total number of sentences total time in prison to date summed seriousness of all offences (for sex offender programmes) type of offending actuarial risk score (“RoC*RoI”) Offenders released in a year

Who?What?In what form?How to measure?Value?How to measure? PRISONS RQ RESULTS (2014)

Who?What?In what form?How to measure?Value?How to measure? COMMUNITY RQ RESULTS

Who?What?In what form?How to measure?Value? ARE THE BENEFITS WORTH THE COST? COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS Sample programme: annual cost of delivery$4,024,000 number of participants600 number of completers431 RQ effect size-6.8 fewer offenders re-imprisoned30 future Corrections costs avoided (5y) $7,441,869 total future costs avoided (5y) $12,359,330 (total = Police+Justice+Corrections+Health+victim-related) Benefit/cost ratio (total costs avoided/costs of delivery) 3.2

Who?What?In what form?How to measure?Value? COST/BENEFIT RATIOS Prisons Community

Who?What?In what form?How to measure?Value? MAKING BEST USE OF RESULTS - Maintain/expand rehabilitation services that are effective - Strengthen programmes where outcomes are variable - Improve matching of offenders to programme type - Discontinue ineffective services - Pilot new services to plug gaps …

 Questions?