UNDERSTANDING DISASTER- RISK REDUCTION FOR SEVERE WINDSTORMS A PRIMER OF KNOWLEDGE THAT CAN MULTIPLY AND SPILL OVER FOR THE BENEFIT OF MILLIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

SEVERE WINDSTORMS TROPICAL STORMS, HURRICANES, TYPHOONS, AND CYCLONES

SEVERE WINDSTORMS: HURRICANES In the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Eastern Pacific areas cyclonic tropical storms with well-formed central “eyes” and with wind speeds above 74 mph are referred to as HURRICANES.

SEVERE WINDSTORMS: TYPHOONS The exact same phenomenon in the Western Pacific Ocean region is called a TYPHOON.

Physics Of A Typhoon

SEVERE WINDSTORMS: CYCLONES The exact same phenomenon in the Indian Ocean region is called a CYCLONE.

SEVERE WINDSTORM PUBLIC POLICY IS A LEGAL MANDATE, A PLAN, OR A WAY OF WORKING TOGETHER TO REDUCE RISK WITHIN THE LIMITS OF THE COMMUNITY’S PUBLIC & PRIVATE ASSETS.

PUBLIC POLICIES INTEGRATE TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE LONG-TERM BENEFIT OF PEOPLE, PROPERTY, INFRASTRUCTURE, GOVERNMENT, AND ENTERPRISE IN THE COMMUNITY

EACH POLICY OPTION SHOULD BEGIN WITH A VISION OF THE GOAL AND REALISTIC STRATEGIES FOR REACHING IT.

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS HAZARD MAPS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK SEVERE WINDSTORM RISK REDUCTION PREVENTION/MITIGATION PREPAREDNESS EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS

RISK ASSESSMENT INTEGRATES RESEARCH AND SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE GAINED FROM “DISASTER LABORATORIES,” WITH EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES WITHIN THE COMMUNITY’S POLITICAL PROCESS.

HAZARDS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM

HAZARDS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) WIND FIELD (COUNTER CLOCKWISE OR CLOCKWISE DIRECTION; CAT 1 (55 mph) TO CAT 5 (155 mph or greater) STORM SURGE HEAVY PRECIPITATION LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS) COSTAL EROSION TORNADOES (SOMETIMES)

“SEVERE WINDSTORM LABORATORIES” EXAMPLES EACH PAST EVENT PROVIDES VALUABLE LESSONS ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION

WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE SEVERE WINDSTORMS UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS STORM SURGE IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN SITING PROBLEMS FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

TEN WORST NATURAL DISASTERS DURING TROPICAL STORM ALLISON (HOUSTON, USA ) $6,000 MILLION ECONOMIC LOSS WITH $3,500 MILLION INDEMNIFIED BY INSURANCE 25 DEATHS $6,000 MILLION ECONOMIC LOSS WITH $3,500 MILLION INDEMNIFIED BY INSURANCE 25 DEATHS

TEN WORST NATURAL DISASTERS DURING HURRICANE MICHELE (CARIBBEAN ) $1,000 MILLION ECONOMIC LOSS WITH $200 MILLION INDEMNIFIED BY INSURANCE 16 DEATHS $1,000 MILLION ECONOMIC LOSS WITH $200 MILLION INDEMNIFIED BY INSURANCE 16 DEATHS

TEN WORST NATURAL DISASTERS DURING TYPHOON PABUK (JAPAN ) $800 MILLION ECONOMIC LOSS WITH $500 MILLION INDEMNIFIED BY INSURANCE 8 DEATHS $800 MILLION ECONOMIC LOSS WITH $500 MILLION INDEMNIFIED BY INSURANCE 8 DEATHS

TEN WORST NATURAL DISASTERS DURING TYPHOON NARI (TAIWAN ) $800 MILLION ECONOMIC LOSS WITH $600 MILLION BEING INDEMNIFIED BY INSURANCE 93 DEATHS $800 MILLION ECONOMIC LOSS WITH $600 MILLION BEING INDEMNIFIED BY INSURANCE 93 DEATHS

NATURAL DISASTERS: 2003 HURRICANE ISABEL: EASTERN USA CATEGORY KPH (100 MPH) WINDS 18 SEPTEMBER STORM SURGE FLOODING IN 8 STATES BUILDINGS AND HOMES DAMAGED TREE DAMAGE $5,000 M LOSS $1,800 M INSURED LOSS 40 DEATHS STORM SURGE FLOODING IN 8 STATES BUILDINGS AND HOMES DAMAGED TREE DAMAGE $5,000 M LOSS $1,800 M INSURED LOSS 40 DEATHS

NATURAL DISASTERS: 2003 TYPHOON MAEMI SOUTH KOREA, PUSAN, JAPAN SEPTEMBER THOUSANDS OF SHIPS, BUILDINGS AND INDUSTRIAL SITES DAMAGED OR DESTROYED INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGED $4,150 M LOSS $500 M INSURED LOSS 118 DEATHS THOUSANDS OF SHIPS, BUILDINGS AND INDUSTRIAL SITES DAMAGED OR DESTROYED INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGED $4,150 M LOSS $500 M INSURED LOSS 118 DEATHS

NATURAL DISASTERS: 2003 TYPHOON DUJUAN TAIWAN 1-3 SEPTEMBER THOUSANDS OF BUILDINGS AND HOMES INUNDATED AGRICULTURAL CROPS LOST $320 M LOSS $-- 0 INSURED LOSS 42 DEATHS THOUSANDS OF BUILDINGS AND HOMES INUNDATED AGRICULTURAL CROPS LOST $320 M LOSS $-- 0 INSURED LOSS 42 DEATHS

NATURAL DISASTERS: 2003 SEVERE STORMS AUSTRALIA (SE) AUGUST VEHICLES, BUILDINGS, AND BRIDGES DAMAGED OR DESTROYED POWER OUTAGES $20 M LOSS $16 M INSURED LOSS 1 DEATH VEHICLES, BUILDINGS, AND BRIDGES DAMAGED OR DESTROYED POWER OUTAGES $20 M LOSS $16 M INSURED LOSS 1 DEATH

NATURAL DISASTERS: 2003 TYPHOON KROVANH CHINA, VIETNAM, PHILIPPINES AUGUST HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF BUILDINGS AND HOMES FLOODED/ DAMAGED DIKES BREACHED $145 M LOSS $--- 0 M INSURED LOSS 7 DEATHS HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF BUILDINGS AND HOMES FLOODED/ DAMAGED DIKES BREACHED $145 M LOSS $--- 0 M INSURED LOSS 7 DEATHS

NATURAL DISASTERS: 2003 TYPHOON ETAH JAPAN (N, NE) 8-10 AUGUST THOUSANDS OF BUILDINGS AND HOMES DAMAGED OR DESTROYED INDUSTRIAL SITES & INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGED $55 M LOSS $42 M INSURED LOSS 13 DEATHS THOUSANDS OF BUILDINGS AND HOMES DAMAGED OR DESTROYED INDUSTRIAL SITES & INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGED $55 M LOSS $42 M INSURED LOSS 13 DEATHS

NATURAL DISASTERS: 2003 TYPHOON IMBUDO CHINA, PHILIPPINES JULY 230 KPH WIND SPEEDS THOUSANDS OF BUILDINGS AND HOMES DAMAGED OR DESTROYED WATER SUPPLY AND POWER DISRUPTED AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK LOSSES $125 M LOSS $-- 0 INSURED LOSS 41 DEATHS 230 KPH WIND SPEEDS THOUSANDS OF BUILDINGS AND HOMES DAMAGED OR DESTROYED WATER SUPPLY AND POWER DISRUPTED AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK LOSSES $125 M LOSS $-- 0 INSURED LOSS 41 DEATHS

TEN WORST NATURAL DISASTERS DURING HURRICANE CHARLEY (CARIBBEAN ISLANDS, AND FLORIDA, USA) AUGUST, 2004 $21 BILLION ECONOMIC LOSS WITH ABOUT $8 BILLION INDEMNIFIED BY INSURANCE 2.3 MILLION EVACUATED 36 DEATHS $21 BILLION ECONOMIC LOSS WITH ABOUT $8 BILLION INDEMNIFIED BY INSURANCE 2.3 MILLION EVACUATED 36 DEATHS

TEN WORST NATURAL DISASTERS DURING TROPICAL CYCLONE CATERINA BRAZIL MARCH, 2004 UNEXPECTED $350 MILLION ECONOMIC LOSS WITH 3 MILLION INSURED 40,000 DAMAGED BUILDINGS 4 DEATHS UNEXPECTED $350 MILLION ECONOMIC LOSS WITH 3 MILLION INSURED 40,000 DAMAGED BUILDINGS 4 DEATHS

“CYCLONE NARGISH LABORATORY”: MARCH 12, 2009 ONE OF THE WORST CYCLONE DISASTERS IN ASIA DURING PAST 15 YEARS 2.4 MILLION PEOPLE SERIOUSLY AFFECTED ONE OF THE WORST CYCLONE DISASTERS IN ASIA DURING PAST 15 YEARS 2.4 MILLION PEOPLE SERIOUSLY AFFECTED

FIVE LESSONS FROM CYCLONE NARGIS FIRST: no nation, rich or poor, can go it alone when confronted by a natural disaster of the magnitude of a Cyclone Nargis.

FIVE LESSONS FROM CYCLONE NARGIS SECOND: The stricken nation must stay focused on the goal: assisting people in crisis;.. helping vulnerable people in need, not on politics.

FIVE LESSONS FROM CYCLONE NARGIS THIRD: Nargis provided a new model of humanitarian partnership; adding the special position and capabilities of Asian countries to those of the United Nations in order to build TRUST with the government.

FIVE LESSONS FROM CYCLONE NARGIS FOURTH: Nargis demonstrated once again the importance of disaster risk reduction and preparedness actions--- simple in concept and easy to implement at the community level---such as local evacuation plans, shelters for evacuees, and early-warning systems.

FIVE LESSONS FROM CYCLONE NARGIS FIFTH: Nargis demonstrated the extraordinary resilience of people, in this case the Myanmar people who faced huge odds against survival.

1325 HURRICANES: DYNAMIC LABORATORIES FOR LEARNING EACH HURRICANE TEACHES IMPORTANT TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL LESSONS ABOUT DISASTER RISK REDUCTION.

2005: A RECORD HURRICANE SEASON Twenty-seven named storms occurred during the 2005 season. Over $100 billion in losses.

TROPICAL STORMS- HURRICANES IN 2005 ARLENE BRET CINDY DENNIS EMILY FRANKLIN GERT HARVEY IRENE JOSE KATRINA LEE

TROPICAL STORMS- HURRICANES IN 2005 MARIA NATE OPHELIA PHILIPPE RITA STAN TAMMY VINCE WILMA ALPHA BETA GAMMA DELTA EPSILON ZETA

LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL SEVERE WINDSTORMS RECOVERY TAKES LONGER AND COSTS MORE THAN EXPECTED.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL SEVERE WINDSTORMS MONITORING WITH DOPPLER RADAR SYSTEMS LEADS TO RELIABLE WARNINGS THAT FACILITATE EVACUATION AND EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL SEVERE WINDSTORMS EVACUATION IS A COMPLEX ENDEAVOR THAT IS NOT ONLY COSTLY, BUT REQUIRES PRIOR PLANNING.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL SEERE WINDSTORMS TIMELY COMMUNICATION OF CRITICAL INFORMATION IMPROVES: MASS EVACUATIONS AND COMMUNITY PREPAREDNESS.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL SEVERE WINDSTORMS STORM SURGE IS THE PRIMARY “KILLER. “

LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL SEVERE WINDSTORMS HIGH VELOCITY WINDS LIFT THE ROOFS OFF OF BUILDINGS.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL SEVERE WINDSTORMS HIGH VELOCITY WINDS CAUSE BUILDINGS WITH INADEQUATE ENGINEERING DESIGN TO COLLAPSE.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL SEVERE WINDSTORMS HEAVY PRECIPITATION, WHICH IS TYPICAL, WILL FLOOD LOW- LYING AREAS ALONG THE ENTIRE PATH OF THE STORM.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL SEVERE WINDSTORMS FLOODING OVER A WIDE AREA WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOSS OF FUNCTION OF HIGHWAY STRUCTURES AND ALL UTILITIES.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL SEVERE WINDSTORMS INCREDIBLE QUANTITES OF DEBRIS WILL BE CREATED BY THE WIND FIELD, STORM SURGE, AND FLOODING.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL SEVERE WINDSTORMS THE UNTHINK- ABLE CAN (AND SOMETIMES WILL) HAPPEN IN ANY COASTAL COMMUNITY THAT IS PRONE TO SEVERE WINDSTORMS.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL HURRICANES POWER OUTAGES ARE INEVITABLE AND WILL PARALYZE COMMUNITIES OVER A WIDE AREA.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL SEVERE WINDSTORMS SAFE HAVENS (E.G., SCHOOLS, SUPER DOMES, CHURCHES, COMMUNITY CENTERS, ETC) FOR EVACUEES ARE NOT ALWAYS SAFE.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL SEVERE WINDSTORMS HOUSEHOLD PETS ARE USUALLY LEFT OUT OF A COMMUNITY’S EVACUATION PLAN.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL SEVERE WINDSTORMS LAPSES IN LAW AND ORDER WILL OFTEN OCCUR DURING CHAOTIC MOMENTS OF THE DISASTER.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL SEVERE WINDSTORMS ALL HURRICANES IT ONLY TAKES A FEW HOURS OF WIND AND STORM SURGE AND A MONTH OF FLOODING FOR COMMUNITY BUSINESSES AND JOBS TO DISAPPEAR FOREVER.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL SEVERE WINDSTORMS ADVERSE ENVIRON- MENTAL IMPACTS WILL HAPPEN WHEN HAZARDOUS MATERIAL FACILITIES ARE SUBJECTED TO WIND, STORM SURGE, AND FLOODING.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL SEVERE WINDSTORMS BARRIER ISLANDS, TREES, REEFS, ETC REDUCE DAMAGE FROM STORM SURGE AND WIND IN THE LANDFALL ZONE.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM HURRICANE KATRINA WHEN THE LEVEES FAILED, NEW ORLEANS FOUND THAT IT WAS NEITHER DISASTER INTELLIGENT NOR RESILIENT.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM HURRICANE KATRINA A FEW HOURS OF WIND FOLLOWED BY A MONTH OF FLOODING PARALYZED TULANE UNIVERSITY.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM HURRICANE KATRINA Removal of 350,000 water-damaged cars (and refriger- ators) was not part of New Orleans’ response plan.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM HURRICANE STAN STAN: OCTOBER 2005 DEVASTATING MUDSLIDES ARE TRIGGERED BY PROLONGED, HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

LESSONS LEARNED FROM HURRICANE STAN WHEN A MUDSLIDE BURIES A TOWN, SEARCH AND RESCUE BECOMES VERY URGENT AND VERY COMPLICATED.

SEVERE WINDSTORM RISK ASSESSMENT

HAZARDSHAZARDS ELEMENTS OF RISK EXPOSUREEXPOSURE VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION RISKRISK

RISK ASSESSMENT: SEVERE WINDSTORMS WHERE, WHEN, AND WHY DID STORM FORM? CATEGORY? PATH? LANDFALL? STORM SURGE SOCIETAL IMPACTS? EXPECTED LOSSES? WHERE, WHEN, AND WHY DID STORM FORM? CATEGORY? PATH? LANDFALL? STORM SURGE SOCIETAL IMPACTS? EXPECTED LOSSES?

E WIND DAMAGE UNACCEPTABLE RISK WATER DAMAGE LOSS OF FUNCTION ECONOMIC LOSS DEATHS RISKRISK

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR SEVERE WINDSTORMS REAL TIME FORECASTS OF PATH AND PHYSICAL EFFECTS MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DOPPLER RADAR, WIND SPEEDS; PRESSURE, INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION) REAL TIME FORECASTS OF PATH AND PHYSICAL EFFECTS MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DOPPLER RADAR, WIND SPEEDS; PRESSURE, INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION) DATABASES WIND ENGINEERING MAPS: STORM SURGE DISASTER SCENARIOS STORM CHASER PLANES/DRONES WARNING SYSTEMS RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING) DATABASES WIND ENGINEERING MAPS: STORM SURGE DISASTER SCENARIOS STORM CHASER PLANES/DRONES WARNING SYSTEMS RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)

SEVERE WINDSTORM RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES

RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES FOR SEVERE WINDSTORMS PURPOSE MONITORING FOR COMPUTER MODELING PROTECTION PURPOSE MONITORING FOR COMPUTER MODELING PROTECTION TECHNIQIE DOPPLER RADAR; PLANES; DRONES; SATTELITES; INTL SPACE STATION WIND-RESILIENT CONSTRUCTION; PLYWOOD; STORM SHUTTERS TECHNIQIE DOPPLER RADAR; PLANES; DRONES; SATTELITES; INTL SPACE STATION WIND-RESILIENT CONSTRUCTION; PLYWOOD; STORM SHUTTERS

WIND ENGINEERING: PROTECTION SEVERE WINDSTORMS CAN NOT BE PREVENTED, BUT BUILDING CODES PREVENT LOSS OF ROOF SYSTEMS SEVERE WINDSTORMS CAN NOT BE PREVENTED, BUT BUILDING CODES PREVENT LOSS OF ROOF SYSTEMS

WIND ENGINEERING: PROTECTION ACTIONS TO KEEP THE WIND AND RAIN OUT OF THE HOUSE CAN BE TAKEN IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM TO PREVENT LOSS.

COMMUNITY PREPAREDNESS: PROTECTION IKE, September 1, 2008: Keeping the wind and water out side the building envelope.

DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITES: MONITORING AND COMPUTER MODEL LOCATION AND PRESSURE OF EYE WIND FIELD AND RAIN BANDS LIKELY PATH LAND FALL STORM SURGE LOCATION AND PRESSURE OF EYE WIND FIELD AND RAIN BANDS LIKELY PATH LAND FALL STORM SURGE

RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES FOR SEVERE WINDSTORMS PURPOSE LAND USE CONTROL COMMUNITY FLOOD PRE- VENTION ALERT, ADVISORY, WARNING PURPOSE LAND USE CONTROL COMMUNITY FLOOD PRE- VENTION ALERT, ADVISORY, WARNING TECHNIQIE COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT LEVEE SYSTEMS COMMUNITY EVACUATION PLANS TECHNIQIE COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT LEVEE SYSTEMS COMMUNITY EVACUATION PLANS

COMMUNITY EVACUATION: TO GET OUT OF HARM’S WAY IKE, September 1, 2008: Memories of what happened in the recent and distant past were an incentive to evacuate from Galveston and Houston

COMMUNITY EVACUATION PLAN: WARNING Katrina, August , 2005: Instead of being a safe haven, as envisioned, New Orleans’ Super Dome became a setting for disaster.

LEVEE SYSTEMS: FLOOD PREVENTION BUILDING AND MAINTAINING A LEVEE SYSTEM IN CONCERT WITH WETLANDS CAN PREVENT FLOODING.

RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES FOR SEVERE WINDSTORMS PURPOSE TEMPORARY SHELTER INSURANCE PURPOSE TEMPORARY SHELTER INSURANCE TECHNIQIE SAFE HAVENS FACILITATE RECOVERY TECHNIQIE SAFE HAVENS FACILITATE RECOVERY

PROPERTY AND CASUALTY INSURANCE: SPEEDS RECOVERY HURRICANE AND FLOOD INSURANCE SPREAD THE RISK. INSURANCE PAYOUTS ACCELERATE “RESTORATION TO NORMAL” HURRICANE AND FLOOD INSURANCE SPREAD THE RISK. INSURANCE PAYOUTS ACCELERATE “RESTORATION TO NORMAL”

THE VISION OF THE END IS DISASTER-RESILIENT URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN EVERY COMMUNITY.