Public perceptions of extreme weather events and climate change Professor Wändi Bruine de Bruin Centre for Decision Research, University of Leeds (UK) Engineering & Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon(US) 1 Funded by NSF/CMU Center for Climate & Energy Decision Making UK Economic & Social Research Council (ESRC L00805X/1) UK Dept. of Environment Food and Rural Affairs/Ricardo AEA

Climate change and weather 2 Climate change is an abstract construct that is difficult to understand Linking climate change to specific weather events makes it concrete and personally relevant (e.g., Weber & Stern, 2011)

Public perceptions of hot weather 3 Hot weather is one of the most commonly expected outcomes of climate change Climate change concerns vary with recent local temperatures Most of these studies focused on the US (e.g., Deryugina, 2013; Egan & Mullin, 2012; Hamilton & Stampone, 2013; Risen et al., 2011)

Public scepticism in cold weather 4 When the weather is cold, beliefs in climate change may be less strong (Weber & Stern, 2011) People who live in areas without hot summers may look forward to ‘global warming’ (Palutikof et al., 2004) Even if it is cold, might other local weather inform beliefs about climate change?

Study 1 5 Public perceptions of climate change and extreme weather in the United Kingdom Paper in press at Risk Analysis Collaborators: Suraje Dessai and Andrea Taylor (University of Leeds, UK) Funding:

Method (Study 1) 6 2,007 UK residents completed our survey in January of 2013 (after a very wet year) They noted perceived changes in frequency of different weather types in their lifetime (1=“a lot less frequent” 5=“a lot more frequent”) They rated climate change beliefs (1=“not at all concerned” 4=“very concerned”)

Research questions (Study 1) 7 1.Do UK residents perceive the frequency of different extreme weather events to have changed over their lifetime? 2.Are climate change beliefs associated with perceptions of changes in different extreme weather events? wet coldhot

Research questions (Study 1) 8 1.Do UK residents perceive the frequency of different extreme weather events to have changed over their lifetime? 2.Are climate change beliefs associated with perceptions of changes in different extreme weather events? wet coldhot

Perceived change in frequency of extreme weather over lifetime 9 Wet ColdHot

Research questions (Study 1) 10 1.Do UK residents perceive the frequency of different extreme weather events to have changed over their lifetime? 2.Are climate change beliefs associated with perceptions of changes in different extreme weather events? wet coldhot

Relationships between weather and climate change beliefs 11 Perceived change Correlation (r) Regression (β) Wet weather.35***.28*** Cold weather.06*.02 Hot weather.11**.15*** Note: Regression model (β) controlled for demographic variables

Discussion 12 Even in areas without hot summers, people may perceive local weather changes -- and potential links with climate change −Climate change beliefs in the UK seem to be driven by perceptions of wet weather events −Our study was conducted after a wet period but we replicated our findings after the 2013 UK heat wave (not shown) Limitations −No direct comparison with the US −No inclusion of windy weather

Study 2 13 A US-UK comparison of public perceptions of climate change and extreme weather Manuscript in preparation Collaborators: Suraje Dessai and Carmen Lefevre (Univ of Leeds, UK); Kelly Klima and Gabrielle Wong-Parodi (CMU, US) Funding:

Method (Study 2) 14 In March 2014, our survey was completed by −447 US participants through Mturk; −575 UK participants through ResearchNow They noted perceived changes in frequency of different weather events in their lifetime (on 1-5 scales) −Wet (such as heavy rainfall and flooding) −Hot (such as heat waves) −Cold (such as snow) −Windy (such as hurricane-strength winds) They rated climate change beliefs (on 1-5 scales)

Research questions (Study 2) 15 1.Do UK and US participants differ in their perceptions of how much different types of weather have changed over their lifetime? 2.Are climate change beliefs in the UK and the US differentially associated with weather perceptions? wet hotcold windy

Research questions (Study 2) 16 1.Do UK and US participants differ in their perceptions of how much different types of weather have changed over their lifetime? 2.Are climate change beliefs in the UK and the US differentially associated with weather perceptions? wet hotcold windy

Perceived change in frequency of extreme weather over lifetime 17 Perceived change in frequency p<.001

Research questions (Study 2) 18 1.Do UK and US participants differ in their perceptions of how much different types of weather have changed over their lifetime? 2.Are climate change beliefs in the UK and the US differentially associated with weather perceptions? wet hotcold windy

Research questions (Study 2) 19 1.Do UK and US participants differ in their perceptions of how much different types of weather have changed over their lifetime? 2.Are climate change beliefs in the UK and the US differentially associated with weather perceptions? wet hotcold windy

Relationship (β) with climate change beliefs 20 Perceived change USUK Wet a.03.57*** Hot a.79***.11* Cold.16***.09 Windy.17*.36** a Significant US-UK difference Note: Regression model (β) controlled for demographic variables

Discussion Previous studies examined links between climate change beliefs and perceptions of changes in hot weather We find that people may also draw links between climate change and changes in other types of weather Communications about climate change should take into account local weather –Especially because people differing in political affiliation disagree more about climate change than about changes in weather (not shown) 21

Related work Longitudinal study of climate and weather beliefs UK preparedness for heat waves UK-US comparison of climate change adaptation Communicating uncertainty about seasonal and decadal weather/climate forecasts 22