Paris Export performance indicators and the international growth of re-exports Martin Mellens OECD International Trade Statistics experts meeting September 17

Paris Outline What is the international trend in re-exports? What is the impact on market performance? What are the consequences?

Paris International trend: method Is soaring re-export growth a Dutch phenomenon? Method ► Input-output tables of Eurostat ► Literature search ► Internetsites statistical agencies (e.g. Hong Kong) More data on re-exports than expected, but... ► What are the price movements? ► Are these data really measure the same thing?

Paris International trend: results Domestically produced exports in 2000 Re-exports in 2000 Re-export growth bln euro/dollar % Belgium Denmark36912 Germany Finland47239 France Sweden8529 Hong Kong Singapore

Paris Re-exports and world trade: problem setting International growth re-exports World trade based on import statistics Re-exported goods registered as imports in (at least) two countries  World trade growth is ‘inflated' compared to the production of exported goods  World trade growth a biased indicator of market growth for domestic exports

Exports performance Market performance Total exports Re-exports Domestically produced exports Relevant world trade Relevant world trade corrected for re-exports ‘Inflation'- effect Mix- effect

Paris Quantifying inflation effect Import growth excluding increase re-exports Assumptions needed ► Share re-exports in imports ► Re-export growth (relative to import growth) ► Price movements re-exports (relative to imports) Low estimate  No re-exports unobserved countries High estimate  Re-exports unobserved countries share 15%, growth 5%, price -1%

Paris Dutch relevant world trade excluding package and inflation effect

Paris What are the consequences? (1) Re-export growth is an international trend With impact on world trade Inhibiting interpretation traditional performance indicators of exports Dutch market performance underestimated Size of effects significant ► : mix effect 0,8%-point, inflation effect 0,6%-point to 1,4%-point

Paris What are the consequences? (2) Effect on market performance other countries unknown ► probably smaller than in the Netherlands As traditional performance indicators become more and more obsolete... Comparison market performance across countries is more difficult  Vast data collection effort is needed