Population censuses and surveys as complementary sources of a vital statistical system László Kajdi Hungarian Central Statistical Office Expert Group Meeting on International Standards for Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Systems, June 2011

2 Reasons for the development of the vital statistics system Change in legal regulations Change in technical, IT circumstances New reuirements of political, social decision makers Change of international data production demands Needs of users, professional stakeholders Changes in social-demographic processes

3 Hungarian vital statistics system Civil registration system: Livebirths, deaths, including foetal and infant deaths Marriages, registered partnerships, divorces Internal and international migration Legal background: Act on Statistics, decree on the implementation Comprehensive data collection, processing, dissemination Next census in October 2011

4 I. Vital statistics data and indicators based on census data 1. Vital statistics by socio-economic status (SES) 2. Fertility analyses 3. Projection of the female population by the number of children 4. Census data on migration 5. Differences between census and projected population

5 I.1 Vital statistics by SES If census and vital statistics data linked by an identification number: directly If there is no ID number: census population = denominator 3 main indicators: education, occupation, economic status Numerator-denominator bias; standards LFS, HALE

6 I.2 Fertility analyses Number of children by cohorts, analyses by SES Sex preferences – level of fertility Differences by legal and actual marital status Information on ethnicity Male fertility

7 I.3 Projection of the female population by the number of children Female census population by date of birth, age, number of children as initial data Tables from the data of annual livebirth and death statistics with the same disaggregation The projection is based on the biological live birth order Main purpose: analysis of fertility and childbearing behaviour by cohorts in intercensus years

8 I.4 Census data on migration Fertility and mortality differences between the immigrating and native population Census: improve the accuracy of migration data Mirror statistics: use at other fields too, e.g. births and deaths in foreign countries

9 I.5 Differences between census and projected population Is it worth to revise population data and indicators, in what disaggregation No international standards for the acceptable deviation No break in time series vs. two data for the same time period, resource need

10 II. Sample surveys as complementary information 1. Healthy life expectancy (HLE) 2. Unmet need for contraception 3. Voluntary and involuntary childlessness 4. Realizing childbearing intentions

11 II.1 Healthy life expectancy Extended life expectancy vs. life quality Measuring mortality conditions and health status paralell with time spent in good health conditions Information on health status from repr. surveys, EU-SILC e.g. Soft indicator: answers by self-assessment

12 II.2 Unmet need for contraception Differences between developing and developed countries Problems: sensitivity, resources Hungarian experiences Complementary indicator: induced abortions per hundred live births

13 II.3 Voluntary and involuntary childlessness Countries with low fertility, trends of the age of childbearing and marriage Reasons for childlessness: voluntary, involuntary Social effects: Low fertility trap, health risk factors, social policy

14 II.4 Realizing childbearing intentions Family planning – the use of modern contraceptive methods Childbearing intentions vs. Actual fertility Role of sample surveys, social policy REPRO: 4 countries: Bulgaria, Hungary, Netherlands, Switzerland; 3 categories: intentional parents, postponers, abandoners

15 Thank you for your attention!