Biotic Consequences of Climate Change Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Raquibul Amin Programme Coordinator IUCN Bangladesh Country Office

PREDICTED IMPACTS ON SPECIES Species ranges and phenologies (e.g. early flowering) will shift Biotic communities will dissociate in space and time. Those that are already critically endangered are likely to be driven to extinction Migratory species may be at particular risk since they require separate breeding, wintering and migratory habitats Frequency and intensity of pest attack will increase Productivity of ecosystem will change

SOME RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROGS The habitat of Golden Toad in Costa Rica moved to higher altitude Climate change seems to making frogs more vulnerable to fungal infection- Two third of 110 species of colorful harlequin frogs in South and Ccentral America are affected

BUTTERFLY Non-migratory butterflies in Northern Africa and Northern Europe shifted home range by 20 to 150 miles PINON MOUSE The mouse moved 1000 to 3000 ft higher elevation over past century in Southwestern US QUIVER TREE Started to die off in parts of their traditional range in Southern Africa

SOME CONSEQUENCES OF RANGE SHIFTS Species range Future reserve Former reserve Reserve Range limit Potential range limit Former range limit After Peters (1992) Current PAs will become unsuitable as reserves

SOME CONSEQUENCES OF RANGE SHIFTS Habitat fragmentation will hinder unassisted migration Species will behave individualistically, it will not be possible to maintain biotic communities in their current state Weedy species will migrate fastest and capture vacated territory Native species can become invasive

Current thinking often emphasizes gradual changes. Climate Time Ecosystem state Time After US Geological Survey (2005)

However, abrupt climatic change can lead to abrupt ecosystem change. Climate Time Ecosystem state Time After US Geological Survey (2005)

Gradual climatic change may also trigger unexpected and abrupt ecosystem change (threshold response) Climate Time Ecosystem state Time After US Geological Survey (2005)

Others drivers will compound the climate change impact: ADDITIONAL DRIVERS Others drivers will compound the climate change impact: Invasive species Land-use change Overexploitation (socio-economic driver) Pollution

What will happen in Bangladesh?

IPCC scenario for Bangladesh

Major impacts will be through Rise in temperature, Increased and untimely rainfall Sea level rise Cyclones, Storm surges Flood and Drought Water logging Salinity intrusion

Managing for the unexpected will entail, at least in part, managing for ecosystem resistance and resilience Resistance: ability to resist stresses. Resilience: ability to recover from stresses.

INTERVENTIONS Restore ecosystems and rehabilitate endangered species Develop national management plans for control and eradication of invasive alien species Moratorium on clearing forest Introduction of salt tolerant species Long term strategy and planning for water management in essential Long term monitoring and capacity building Appropriate research is needed to determine and identify an acceptable substitute of plant species

Review of Policies and program Integrate biodiversity conservation into the national development planning and processes

Promotion of synergies with other MEAs Climate change is intrinsically linked to the well – being of ecosystems, in terms of livelihood securities, biodiversity, forestry In the light of the uncertainties of climate change, it is crucial to promote synergies amongst the three Rio Conventions: UNFCCC, CBD and CCD

THANK YOU