Climate Change and Disaster Risk1 Implications for policy and practice Session 2 World Bank Institute Maarten van Aalst

Climate Change and Disaster Risk2 Global warming and global disaster impacts What will global warming mean for disaster impacts?

Climate Change and Disaster Risk3 The poorest people and poorest countries are most vulnerable Source: ISDR/CRED

Climate Change and Disaster Risk4 Developing countries most vulnerable (1) Susceptibility to impacts  Closer to margin of tolerance for temperature and precipitation changes (more drought- and flood- prone areas)  Poorer nutrition and health infrastructure and therefore higher losses of human life  Coastal vulnerability 49 out of 50 countries with shore protection costs due to climate change above 0.5% of GDP are less developed countries  Economic structure Larger share of the economy in climate sensitive sectors, such as agriculture

Climate Change and Disaster Risk5 Developing countries most vulnerable (2) Lower capacity to adapt Know-how and Education Institutional Capacity Availability of Technology Wealth

Climate Change and Disaster Risk6 Climate change is a socio-economic concern  Climate change is not just an environmental issue  Economic development and poverty alleviation are at risk

Climate Change and Disaster Risk7 OECD: Exposure of donor-funded development activities

Climate Change and Disaster Risk8 Risks to development  Direct physical threats  Risk of underperformance  Risk of maladaptation (development that creates or exacerbates vulnerabilities) In addition, projects may fail to take advantage of opportunities related to climate change

Climate Change and Disaster Risk9 From macro to micro Kiribati: 33 atolls, rarely more than 3 meters above sea level 2100 Worst Case Scenario with Storm Surge 2100 Worst Case Scenario Present Times Economic damages in the absence of adaptation: % of GDP by 2050

Climate Change and Disaster Risk10 Impacts on livelihoods right now A dying pandanus forest due to saltwater intrusion after a storm surge

Climate Change and Disaster Risk11 Integrated climate risk management The way to address these concerns is not to separate management of risks related climate change from other issues (for instance through stand-alone projects) but to integrate comprehensive climate risk management into development planning, sector programs, projects and other activities.

Climate Change and Disaster Risk12 Climate risk management as an opportunity Enhanced climate risk management  Guards investments and livelihoods in a changing climate,  but also enhances resilience to current climate variability and extreme weather events,  and improves the impact of development efforts and sustainability of local livelihoods right now.

Climate Change and Disaster Risk13 Climate risk management at the national level  Climate risk management should be integrated in regular plans, programs and policies (including budgetary processes)  Attention is needed for measures as well as policies and regulations (including enforcement)

Climate Change and Disaster Risk14 Climate risk management: reaching out  Climate risk management requires a long-term process linking bottom-up consultation with top-down planning  Involvement of private sector, communities and NGO’s is vital