1 Microsimulation of Businesses in ILUMASS Part 1: Introduction and Generating Synthetic Businesses Rolf Moeckel and Michael Wegener Workshop of the Land Use Transportation Modelling Group University College London, 2 July 2005

2 Microsimulation of Businesses in ILUMASS Introduction

3 ILUMASS Project ILUMASS is an integrated urban model simulating (a)changes in land use (b)the changes in transport demand (c)the resulting environmental impacts (d)the feedback from changes of accessi- bility and environment on land use The aim of ILUMASS is to establish a fully disaggregate urban simulation model. Introduction

4 Acknowledgement The partners are German Aerospace Centre, Berlin (DLR) Technical University of Aachen (ISB) University of Bamberg (IfTP) University of Cologne (ZAIK) University of Wuppertal (LUIS) University of Dortmund (IRPUD) ILUMASS is funded by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research. Introduction

5 ILUMASSModelOverview Synthetic population - housing - persons - cars Synthetic firms - floorspace - firms - jobs - vehicles Transport networks - roads - public transport Firms - floorspace - firms - jobs Land use Person travel demand - activity programs - week plans Goods trans- port demand - activities - trips Transport Environmental impacts Emissions - air pollution, - traffic noise at sources Population - housing - households - persons - cars Dynamic traffic assignment - network flows Impacts - air quality, - traffic noise at work Impacts - air quality - traffic noise at housing Accessibility - of jobs - of shops - of population - of facilities Introduction

6 Interaction of Land-Use/Transport and Business Model Simulation of Businesses Land Use Transport Environmental Impacts Accessibility Environm. quality Floorspace/workforce Work locations Transport demand Emissions Establishments Moves Growths Shrinkings Declines Land Use/ Transport Model Introduction

7 Dortmund 010 km Introduction Study Area

8 Residential Mixed Use Industry Agriculture Forest Land Use km Introduction

9 Street Network 2000 Highway Main Road Side Road 010 km Introduction

10 Public Transport 2000 Train Subway/Tram Bus 010 km Introduction

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12 Microsimulation of Businesses in ILUMASS Generating Synthetic Businesses

13 Micro Data Data availability on businesses is extremely poor in Germany! Business census data exists for the years 1950, 1961, 1970, and Monte Carlo Sampling and Iterative Propor- tional Fitting are used to generate micro data. Spatial disaggregation is performed by Interpolation or Monte Carlo Sampling using ancillary land-use data. Micro data

14 Iterative Proportional Fitting Businesses by type and size Businesses by size Businesses by type Micro data

15 Monte Carlo Sampling Select a business type Select number of employees Select qualification of employed person Select micro location More employees in business? No Yes … Micro data

16 Types of Businesses Micro data Agriculture Mining and quarryingManufacture of wood, paper and printing Manufacture of food products, tobacco and textile Manufacture of machinery and equipment Manufacture of basic metals and fabricated metal products Manufacture of furniture, jewellery, musical instruments, games and toys Manufacture of chemicals, coke and plastic products Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products Construction Wholesale and retail tradeHotels and restaurants Transport and communicationHealth and social work Financial intermediationOther business activities EducationSewage and refuse disposal, sanitation Recreational, cultural and sporting activities Public administration, public security and fire service

17 Micro Data Multi-establishment firms are treated as several individual businesses. Features for each synthetic business in- clude: - location (x/y-coordinates), - employees per education level, - job vacancies per education level, - customer capacity, - parking, and - floorspace. Micro data

x 100 m Raster Cells 1 km 2 Micro data

19 Land Price - Industrial Micro data

20 Land Price - Mixed Use Micro data

21 Land Use Micro data Residential Area Mixed Use Light Industry Heavy Industry

22 Concen- trations Micro data Retail Office Airport Public institution

23 Agricultural Land Micro data

24 Industrial Floorspace Micro data

25 Retail Floorspace Micro data

26 Office Floorspace Micro data

27 Micro Data Features for non-residential floorspace in- clude: - location (x/y-coordinates), - floorspace in m², - quality, and - price. Micro data

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