California Energy Commission End-User Natural Gas Forecast for California May 21, 2015 Chris Kavalec Energy Assessments Division

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Presentation transcript:

California Energy Commission End-User Natural Gas Forecast for California May 21, 2015 Chris Kavalec Energy Assessments Division /

California Energy Commission Forecast Methods Comes from California Energy Demand Preliminary Forecast (CED 2015) Five Sectors: agricultural, commercial, industrial, residential, TCU (transportation, communication, and utilities), plus transportation Separate models for each sector; three forecast cases: high, mid, and low Models driven by economic/demographic growth, natural gas prices, weather, and efficiency improvements 2

California Energy Commission Forecast Methods Four planning areas: PG&E, SoCalGas, SDG&E, and “other” Incorporates building and appliance standards and utility incentive programs Incorporates climate change through changes in heating degree days Rainfall included as driver in agricultural sector 3

California Energy Commission Forecast Structure 4

California Energy Commission Statewide End-User Consumption Higher starting point and faster growth vs. CED

California Energy Commission Consumption from Transportation Responsible for faster growth vs. CED

California Energy Commission Average Annual Growth Mid Case,

California Energy Commission Impact of Climate Change Consumption decrease from fewer heating degree days 8

California Energy Commission Potential Impact from Drought Continued drought: average rainfall

California Energy Commission Next Steps Revised forecast in fall –Incorporate comments –Updated historical consumption –Updated econ-demo –Updated natural gas prices –Additional achievable energy efficiency from CPUC potential study Comments/questions? 10