Daniel E. Campbell Research Ecologist IV International Workshop Advances in Energy Studies: “Ecology-Energy Issues in Latin America”. Unicamp, June 15-19, 2004 Global Transition to Sustainable Development

Brief Outline of the Talk What is Sustainable Development? Where are we now? The trade-off between the economy and the environment. Is sustainable development possible? Human well being. Environmental accounting using emergy. Comparison of emergy accounts for South America and North America countries. Conclusions and recommendations.

Sustainable Development All nations could be better places for their inhabitants to live, if well being could be measured as ideal interaction (product) of environmental, social, and economic empower per capita in a system. Is this a reasonable goal for the world today?

Understanding What is Sustainable Energy Systems Theory (Odum 1994) is used as a context for understanding sustainable development. Characterization of the properties of the global system using this approach will help answer our question. The maximum empower principle provides the criterion for identifying system designs that will succeed.

Maximum Power Design System designs that fits and maximize available empower prevail in competition. Nature’s ubiquitous patterns are the result of such designs. Pulsating systems at all scales may be one such design.

Nature’s Pulsing Paradigm The pulsing paradigm replaces the old concept of growth followed by steady state. Systems with coupled pairs of components can oscillate. Such pulsing pairs are found on all hierarchical levels of organization. Pulsing pairs contain two components: the accumulator, that slowly builds up resources and the frensor, that rapidly consumes the accumulated resources.

Energy ST = Accumulated Resource Consumption Dispersed Material Energy 1000 ST = Accumulated Resource Consumption Dispersed Material Energy ST = Accumulated Resource Consumption Dispersed Material Level 3 Level 1 Level 2 Pulsing on nested levels of hierarchical organization.

The Cycle of Change The pulsing paradigm for ecosystem development implies that a cycle of change is the fundamental characteristic of environmental systems rather than development through a series of stages to a climax condition that is sustainable.

The Repeating Cycle of Change Environmental resources by the ecosystems (today and in the past) are the accumulated products. Global economic, informational, and cultural assets are the resource consumers. The cycle of change moves through phases of (1) exploitation, (2) climax or conservation, (3) creative destruction, and (4) renewal (Holing's Figure 8).

A B C D The Cycle of Change

The Evolving Cycle of Change The shared information of humans in social systems provides a mechanism for evolution of the cycle. Hypothesis: System empower will gradually increase in each successive phase of renewal, in the limit, approaching the maximum empower possible for the resource base.

Energy E= 5 X X X X XX Material, M TM = 200 Resources R = 2 Consumers C =2 Information I = 0.2 k1k k3k k4k4 0.2 k5k k2k2 3E-4 2.5E-5 k6k6 k7k7 k8k8 k9k9 3E k 10 k k 12 Role of Information in altering the renewal phase of Pulsing Systems

Time Emergy, sej Accumulated Resource Resource Consumption A B C D2D2 D1D1 Pulsing as an evolutionary mechanism for attaining higher empower states.

Morality in Each Phase of the Cycle A) Exploitation of Resources B) Climax C) Decession D) Low Energy Steady State Our children will have more material wealth than we do. We will meet our needs without compromising the needs of our children We will do more with less, so our children will have less material wealth but life will be better We plan for the 7th generation of our children Time Emergy, sej Accumulated Resource Resource Consumption A B C D2D2 D1D1

Where are we now in the cycle of change? M. King Hubbert (1956) predicted petroleum production in the U.S. peak would occur in 1970, which history has verified. Colin Campbell predicts peak oil production for the world around If he is right, the peak occurred 9 years ago.

H.T. Odum’s model of Hubbert’s Blip.

Model of Global Society on Fossil Fuel

Production Nonrenewable Resource, P F Q P Energetic limits determine the level of development.

Campbell’s forecast Prior to its production peak, energy does not limit economic growth or production, except locally in time and space.

Environmental Systems Environmental systems are ecosystems in which humans are a dominant component. Economic production supports society and our standard of living and is not possible without the use of environmental resources. The central problem for sustainable development is how to balance the environmental costs of economic production with the benefits of that production to society.

Environmental Limits to Economic Development Environmental resources are necessary inputs for economic production, Which produces wastes and alters land use thereby decreasing available environmental resources. Declining environmental resources eventually cause a decrease in economic production.

The Environmental System of a Nation Natural resources are required for economic production, but production has negative effects on the environment. Renewable Energies Fossil fuel, Minerals Natural Ecosystems Subsidized Ecosystems Waste, Fertilizing Fossil fuel, minerals, etc. Markets Goods & Services Waste, Toxic -XX X X X X - X X X X Groundwater, soil, clean air. etc. Economy GDP Area Area X C, Land Conversion C C (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

Energy Limits Global Growth As long as the production of nonrenewable resource increases some resource can be used to mitigate the negative effects of economic production on the environment, while allowing economic growth to continue. Once production peaks, each year less resource is available and some formerly supported activities must be given-up.

Renewable Energy Natural Ecosystems Subsidized Ecosystems Waste, Fertilizing Fossil fuel, minerals, etc. Waste, Toxic -XX X X X X - X X X X Groundwater, soil, clean air. etc. Economy GWP $ Area Area X C C C Global Environmental System before Nonrenewable Resources Peak. Recycle &Waste Treatment Better Design (1) (2) (3)

Is Global Sustainable Development Possible? If it is, there must be an optimum nonrenewable emergy use for maximum human well being. At least theoretically: Underdeveloped countries would improve by using more nonrenewable emergy; and developed countries would increase well being by using less, but improving design. What happens in practice?

An optimum is not apparent looking at global economic activity as a function of energy use.

Nor does an optimum appear in the relationship between national GDP and national emergy use.

Human Well Being We hypothesize that: human well being is determined by the interaction of emergy flows of the environment, economy, and society within a system. The product of these three will have a humpbacked (optimum) relation as a function of fossil fuel use when detrimental drains are included.

Mechanism that will allow global sustainable development Hypothetical Data Underdeveloped Overdeveloped

Questions Related to Transition What is sustainable for the world as a whole? And for each country given its particular resource base and position in the cycle of change? Is it possible for all nations together to move toward higher states of human well being? Is global sustainable development a realizable system state?

Environmental Accounting The answers to these questions will depend on the development of an adequate theory of human well being and on the development of accounting methods to determine whether we are moving toward this goal. Environmental accounting using emergy (Odum 1996) provides methods and measures to help answer these questions.

Tools of Environmental Accounting The Emergy Income Statement The Emergy Balance Sheet Emergy Measures of Trade Equity Emergy Measures of Social Equity Emergy Indices, e.g., environmental loading and sustainability.

Global Transition to Sustainable Development To illustrate the application of environmental accounting methods to the problem of sustainable development, we will consider the concept of society’s debt to the environment debt and how it can be measured using emergy methods.

Environmental Debt Money is paid only to people for their work. The environment contributes work to economic production without payment. Anything taken without payment is obtained on credit and becomes a liability on the balance sheet.

Measuring the Debt Environmental debt is mostly external to the market system, thus it is not easily measured by money. Value can be measured by what was required to produce an item as well as by what someone is willing to pay for it. Environmental work can be measured by the former method.

Available energy is a common denominator All action is accompanied by the transformation of available energy or exergy. The exergy used in the past to create an item is a measure of what was required to produce it. But exergies of different kinds have different ability to do work when used in a network.

Emergy If all the different kinds of exergy previously used up, directly and indirectly, to make an item are expressed as solar joules, and then summed the resulting value is the solar emergy of the item. = + X X = Emergy of Bread Joules Bread Joules Rain Oil Solar emjoules

What is Emergy? It is the Energy Memory of everything that has been used to make a product or service. It is a scientific expression of the folk idea of energy. More energy = a barn instead of a shed and when the barn is built the energy is used up.

Emergy to money ratio Monetary and emergy accounts are reconciled on the balance sheet using a combined emergy- money measure, e.g., the emdollar. The emdollar value of an item is its emergy divided by the emergy-to-money ratio for an economy in a given year. Emergy to money ratio

Environmental Accounting Tools Emergy accounting makes it possible to keep a single set of books for the environment and the economy.

Environmental Accounting Tools Create a balance sheet that includes environmental liabilities from which the true solvency of our economic activities can be determined.

Emergy Balance Sheet The emergy balance sheet gives direct information on what is sustainable.

Emergy Balance Sheets for North and South America Emergy debt to the environment:  Forest systems (original area – present area)  Species extinctions: vascular plants Emergy assets:  Fossil fuel reserves Coal Oil Natural gas

South America: Country Data

SA Assets in Fossil Fuel Reserves

SA Fossil Fuel: Use Remaining

SA Emergy Debt to Forest Ecosystems * Brown (2003)

SA Biodiversity Debt

North America: Country Data

NA Fossil Fuel Reserves

NA Fossil Fuel: Use Remaining

NA Debt to Forest Ecosystems

NA Biodiversity Debt

Comparison NA/SA Ratio NA to SAValue Emergy in Fossil Reserves5.18 Emergy of Fossil Fuel Use4.69 Debt to Plant Biodiversity4.51 Debt to Forest Ecosystems0.47 Original Forest Area0.56

Conclusions In nature the only thing that appears to be truly sustainable is a pulsing cycle of change. Only by knowing our position in the cycle can we take appropriate steps to move toward a position of greater total empower use (according to global situation). Documenting environmental liabilities and assets using emergy accounting shows what is sustainable for each phase in the cycle of change. A transition toward global sustainable development may be possible if we apply the following rules during each phase of the cycle.

Recommendations for Global Transition Protect the larger planetary system by stabilizing environmental liabilities that affect global functions. Individual countries adopt policies to move toward a position of greater total empower use. Determine the equity of trade with emergy accounting methods. Evaluate the efficacy of the distribution of wealth among people using emergy.