LIVING ON THE SLOPE 1

HIS STORY (History) 140 million years ago the Indian Plate formed part of the supercontinent Gondwanaland together with modern Africa, Australia, Antarctica, and South America. 140supercontinentGondwanaland About 90 million years ago, subsequent to the splitting off from Gondwanaland of conjoined Madagascar and India, the Indian Plate split from Madagascar.90 Madagascar Begun colliding with Asia between 55 and 50 million years ago The collision with the Eurasian Plate along the boundary between India and Nepal formed the orogenic belt that created the Tibetan Plateau and the Himalaya MountainsEurasian PlateNepal orogenic beltTibetan PlateauHimalaya (Source: wikipedia)

Westerly Wave (Mid Latitude Weather Systems) Tracks of Monsoon & Winter Weather Systems (Courtesy PMD) Monsoon Monsoonal Zone SUPER FLOOD (2010) in Pakistan: Very Heavy Rainfall Over NW Pakistan

People Centerd Early Warning System-Key Elements Dissemination and Communication Communicate risk information and early warnings Risk Knowledge Systematically collect data and undertake risk assessments Monitoring and Warning Service Develop hazard monitoring and early warning Response Capability Build national and community response capability

Project Outline Strategic Strengthening of Flood Warning and Management Capacity of Pakistan

Problem revealed by the flood 2010 and counter measures taken in this project There was limited or no flood forecasting ability for the areas severely damaged by the floods The flood devastated the areas where had no inundation experience in the past Flood forecasting including upper-Indus will be introduced by a new system utilizing satellite data （ A1) Updating flood hazard maps in lower Indus to cover the new inundated areas （ A2) Upper Indus Lower Indus

Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) Satellite information of basin features (Elevation, Land use, Geology) Input satellite rainfall *Empirical self-correction method is also applicable. Create runoff analysis model with GIS Conduct runoff analysis/forecast calculation Reduce/Prevent flood damage Satellite-based rainfall data (Quasi-real-time) User friendly display Rainfall observation by satellite by satellite Available on internet Promoting safe evacuation Flow/water level calculation Rainfall observation by rain gauge Integrated Flood Analysis System （ JAXA-GSMaP ） Courtesy of JAXA Flood forecasting/warning

Tarbella Dam Realtime flow hydrograph from Existing FEWS Project Component （ 1/3 ） Geographic area to be covered by Indus-IFAS (enclosed by dotted lines)  Indus-IFAS will be developed in collaboration with the government of Pakistan  Test operation in 2011  Validation and update in 2012 A1 Integrated Flood Analysis System 4 IFAS Introduction

Project Component （ 2/3 ） Proposed Flood Hazard Mapping Area (enclosed by dotted lines)  Update flood hazard maps by using satellite data  Cover lower Indus including newly affected areas by the flood 2010 A2 Punjna d Flood Hazard Mapping 5

Project Component （ 3/3 ）  Parameter improvement and enhanced utilization of IFAS  Capacity development for IFAS introduction and flood hazard mapping, as well as for their sustainable use B C 6 Software Platform for Transboundary and domestic data sharing Human Capacity Development Supplementation A1 A2

Implementation Framework 7