The Sustainability Research Centre: Transforming Regions Drivers and Barriers to Sustainable Development: An Historical-Futures Perspective (Case Study) Dr Marcus Bussey

 South East Queensland – fastest growing region in Australia  Institutional responses to climate impacts that lead to sustainable development  Scaffold Learning to increase options  Ground learning in the decision maker’s reality  Historical ‘scenarios’ offer concrete representation of past not intangible speculative future  Search for practical lessons 2University of the Sunshiner Coast: 2011

3

4

Focus often on: –Measuring and predicting biophyscial changes –Developing new technologies Meaningless without understanding and enhancing adaptive capacity which can be defined as: “The ability of a system to adjust to climate change … to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences” (IPCC, 2001, p. 881). 5University of the Sunshiner Coast: 2011

 Population grew significantly (19%) between 1996 and 2006 Trends set to continue  The growing population, in particular increasing densities in high risk coastal urban areas is a cause of concern for climate change adaptation  Based on the medium series 2031 projections the SEQ region is expected to be home for 4,430,900 people an increase of 56.7% on the current estimated residential population of 2,827,566.  Projections also show a doubling of lone person households and couples without children households and an increase of at least 60% for one parent family households across the region. 6University of the Sunshiner Coast: 2011

 Nine determinants frame the context for drivers and barriers ◦ complexity and leadership, ◦ institutions and values, ◦ technology and imagination, ◦ information and knowledge, and ◦ scale 7University of the Sunshiner Coast: 2011

 Navigating the socio-ecological field  Information – Historical case studies  Conceptual tools – The scaffolding of case studies  Empowerment – From case study to scenario 8University of the Sunshiner Coast: 2011

 David Gershon: ◦ “Since social change requires people to participate, each element of the change strategy needs to be designed to attract people” (2009, p. 146) University of the Sunshiner Coast: 20119

10University of the Sunshiner Coast: 2011

11University of the Sunshiner Coast: 2011

 Move from reactive to proactive  Technology and Identity are linked  Technology can foster a false sense of security  Social process can be represented across four quadrants thus ‘Practical’ is a shifting signifier  Adaptive leadership fosters adaptive institutions  Adaptive institutions emerge over time and only through collective effort 12University of the Sunshiner Coast: 2011

 Scenarios challenge our thinking about the present  We need to couple imagination with social will, institutional creativity with empowered leadership and foster the desire for alternatives  Drivers and barriers lie in how complexity, leadership, knowledge, technology, institutions are framed 13University of the Sunshiner Coast: 2011

14University of the Sunshiner Coast: 2011