Housing in Fingal A MARKET PERSPECTIVE

Housing in Fingal A Market Perspective  Housing Supply Capacity Survey recently undertaken by Society of Chartered Surveyors with FutureAnalytics  Identified 2,233 hectares of land zoned and potentially available for residential development, 2.4% of the total land area in the Dublin Region  This zoned land can deliver approximately 102,500 additional housing units under the minimum recommended density  This would potentially house 269,000 additional persons  There is a minimum requirement for 35,433 units between 2014 – 2018  Planning permission granted for 26,580 units

Housing in Fingal A Market Perspective

 Existing Fingal stock of 103,295 housing units – 20% of current total Dublin stock – and a population of 273,991 (Census 2011)  Almost 48% of total Dublin land area  Strong population growth of 13.8% 2006 – 2011 (Census 2011)  Average Household Size 2.67 persons (Census 2011)  1,065 hectares of zoned and potentially available land – almost 50% of all Dublin area zoned lands  Positive future development proposition

Housing in Fingal A Market Perspective Source: CSO Quarterly National Household Survey Q4 2013

Housing in Fingal A Market Perspective

 Planning Permissions already granted  Land Area – 231 Hectares  No. of Units – 15,583 Units  Breakdown – - 1,005 One Bed Units - 6,502 Two Bed Units - 4,765 Three Bed Units - 2,365 Four Bed Units Five Bed Units

Housing in Fingal A Market Perspective

 Quarterly House Completions in Fingal ( Source - Dept. of Environment, Community & Local Government)  Q – Total 99 (private)  Q – Total 130 (private)  Q – Total 126 (private)

Housing in Fingal A Market Perspective  Fingal Urban Settlements over 1,000 persons (CSO, 2011)  Balbriggan 19,960 persons;  Donabate 1,866 persons;  Kinsealy-Drinan 5,814 persons – also recorded highest density  Lusk 7,022 persons  Malahide 15,846 persons  Portmarnock 9,285 persons  Portrane 1,372 persons  Rush 9,321 persons  Skerries 9,671 persons  Swords 36,924

Housing in Fingal A Market Perspective  What attracts occupiers to Fingal – Fluirse Talaimh is Mara (Abundance of Land & Sea)  Infrastructure leads development  Dublin Airport, M1, M2, M3, M50, direct Link to Port Tunnel, Dart, mainline train links, QBCs  Metro North Project?  Broad spectrum of housing type from heavily populated areas to network of small villages to individual rural houses  Good local road network to support car-commuting population  Pressure on agricultural hinterland for development in future

Housing in Fingal A Market Perspective

 Supply of new housing is affected by the availability and cost of Land Credit (both Acquisition & Development Finance) Skilled labour and cost of materials Infrastructure provision  Planning Constraints and Building Regulations  Council’s ability to influence some of these factors in order to encourage efficient and timely delivery of new housing units

Housing in Fingal A Market Perspective  EXAMPLE  Build Cost for 3 Bed Semi-Detached House – €145,000 total  Local Authority Levies – c. €21,000* - 15% of build cost  Average Price - €189,000  Developer’s 15% - €22,000  13.5% of sale price - €23,000  €43,000 / 23% of House Price in Tax/Levies  *Varies depending on Local Authority levy rates & Part V contribution

Housing in Fingal A Market Perspective  EXAMPLE  Apartment Development not viable based on current prices  NAMA’s Impact on Housing Costs – January 2014  Per Unit Development Cost - €216,302 (Block of 30) - €241,659 (Block of 90) - Sales Prices in Dublin (MyHome.ie Q2 2014) - 1 Bed Apartment - €139, Bed Apartment - €200,000

Housing in Fingal A Market Perspective  Who will build the new housing stock?  Are there any roadblocks to development?  Influence of other stakeholders in the market – NAMA, non-NAMA Banks, Receivers  Vacant site levy to discourage land-banking/hoarding?  New approaches to ensure completion of schemes?  New Part V arrangements

Housing in Fingal A Market Perspective  New players in the markets – Property Funds and REITS  Medium to long term Build to Rent investment strategy with professional management  Different design requirements to standard apartment development  Dual orientation, size, central cores, utility and storage areas, retail use at ground floor level, parking – Build to Rent represents new unit type to market  Strong emphasis on finish for durability and quality offering to end user  Revised Tenure – Long Term Rental Agreements with focus on rights and responsibilities of both parties

Housing in Fingal A Market Perspective  Post Priory Hall – Buyers need confidence in Regulatory system  Unfinished Estates/Pyrite/Flood Risk  Recent legislation (Multi-Unit Dwellings act) has provided more control to owners of the management of scheme  Work still needs to be done to convince people to live in high density schemes  Role for Local Authority in developing communities once construction completed?  Engage with industry for opinion and feedback?

Housing in Fingal A Market Perspective  SUMMARY  Fingal has land available to sustain development for several years  Market needs quick supply to meet strong demand  Infrastructure in place to support development now  Financing challenges remain – new credit models and new players in market  New Build to Rent development type - great opportunity for sustainable high density  Car commuting is a major factor in Fingal – build the roads and they will come! Scheme designs need to accommodate this factor  Regulatory system needs to operate effectively to inspire trust in property owners and occupiers

Housing in Fingal A Market Perspective  THANK YOU  ANY QUESTIONS?