MA PREVENTION OF HARMFUL ALGAL BLOOMS VIA PREDICTIONS OF FERTILIZER RUNOFF

 Suppose there is a farm near a slow-moving body of water.  The fertilizer runoff from the farm enters the slow- moving body of water and becomes thoroughly mixed.  The concentration of fertilizer in the water influences the occurrence of harmful algal blooms.  Harmful algal blooms produce toxins which can cause death of organisms within the water in addition to death of organisms that drink from the water. ASSUMPTIONS

 Compartment Model MODEL DIAGRAM

 All water is uniformly distributed and there is thorough mixing of fertilizer runoff with the body of water.  The volume of the body of water is constant. Thus, the inflows are equal to the outflow.  The rate of fertilizer runoff is constant over time.  Sunlight and temperature will be held constant. ASSUMPTIONS

 What concentration of fertilizer will be sufficient to create harmful algal blooms?  How much fertilizer/what type of fertilizer would be safe so as to prevent the growth of harmful algal blooms?  How sensitive are the algal blooms to the nutrient levels (phosphorus, nitrogen)?  How do the rates of evaporation and precipitation affect the concentration of nutrients in the water? PROBLEM QUESTIONS

 We are concerned with the concentration of nutrients at which a harmful amount of algal growth will occur. We are not concerned with the growth rate of the algae.  In order to determine which nutrients play the largest role in harmful algal bloom growth, we will use sensitivity analysis juxtaposed with background research.  The model can be modified to describe activity in different environments by varying the rates of runoff and of water inflow/outflow. DISCUSSION OF MODEL

 Introduction to the problem  What type of equations will be used  Continuous / Discrete  If Continuous ODE’s or PDE’s or algebraic model  What model analysis do you propose to use  Will you have any data to compare your model with? MISSING