Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 29 November 2010 For Real-time information:

Outline Highlights ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status Monsoons Current Status Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rainfall & Temperature Patterns NCEP/GFS Model Forecast Forecast Verification

Canada and US: A storm system brought locally heavy precipitation to parts of the Midwest and the Ohio Valley over the Thanksgiving holiday. Bitterly cold air with well below average temperatures impacted much of the northern US Plains, the interior western US and the Canadian Prairies. The GFS predicts another storm system bringing locally heavy precipitation to the Ohio Valley and southeast Canada over the next 7 days. Mexico and Central America: Most of the region observed near to below average precipitation, with the exception of Panama where enhanced rains fell. Additional heavy rains are possible across Panama during the next 7 days, with drier than average weather forecast for parts of Hispaniola. Eurasia: Heavy precipitation impacted parts of southern Europe, southern India, and Sri Lanka. Temperatures were much above normal across western Russia. Heavy rain is forecast to continue in parts of central Europe. Highlights

ENSO Current Status For more information go to: During the last 4-weeks (31 Oct – 27 Nov 2010), SSTs were at least 1.0°C below average between 165°E and the South American coast, with departures more than 2.0°C below average in some areas east of the International Date Line. General Summary: La Niña is present across the equatorial Pacific. Negative sea surface temperature anomalies persist across much of the Pacific Ocean. La Niña is expected to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011.

MJO Current Status  The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes  The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO  Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.  Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength  Line colors distinguish different months MJO Index -- Recent EvolutionEnsemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean For more information go to: The MJO signal continued to be weak. The GEFS forecasts a weak MJO emerging into the western Maritime Continent by late Week 1 or early Week 2.

Northern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status North AmericaWest AfricaEast Asia For more information go to: Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days The North American Monsoon season has ended. Precipitation during the past 90 days has been near average. During the last 90 days above average rainfall has occurred in west Africa near Senegal and Guinea. Near average rainfall has occurred in central Africa. During the last 90 days above average rainfall has occurred in Indonesia. This is consistent with La Nina conditions. Monsoon Season: JUN-SEPMonsoon Season: MAY-OCTMonsoon Season: JUN-SEP

Northern Hemisphere Circulation 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies - Recent 7 days During the 7-day period ( Nov 2010), an anomalous 200-hPa cyclonic circulation center was located over the central Atlantic, and anomalous 200-hPa anticyclonic circulation centers were located over the southeast US, the Middle East and northern India. During the 7-day period above average temperatures were observed in the eastern US, southeast Europe, and southern Russia; below-average temperatures were observed over central Canada and northern Russia. Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. A A C A

Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than- normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days During the 7-day period (21 – 27 Nov 2010), anomalous rising motion (negative omega) was observed over the east-central US, Europe, and India (top panel red ovals). During the same time period precipitation was observed over these same areas. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.

Canada and US Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 7 days, heavy precipitation fell across the Midwest and the eastern Corn Belt from a storm system over the Thanksgiving holiday. Snow accumulations continued early in the period in northern California and the Intermountain West. A significant freezing rain event affected interior Alaska. Drier than average weather was observed in western Canada, the Pacific Northwest and parts of the eastern US.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days, below-average precipitation has been observed across the east-central and southeast US and in western Canada.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum Temperatures were below average in the Canadian Prairies for a second week. Lows below -20 degrees C were common in most areas. Lows in Alberta reached below -30 degrees C. In eastern Canada temperatures were near to above average with overnight freezes. AnomalyExtreme Minimum

Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum Bitterly cold air associated with an Arctic airmass spread across the West and the northern Plains. Temperature anomalies in excess of 15 degrees below average were common in the northern Plains and the Rockies. Warmer than average temperatures affected the southeast and the southern Plains. Temperatures were below average in many western Mexico districts, but were above average in eastern Mexico. Light freezes were observed in Chihuahua and spread into northern Durango and northeast Sonora. AnomalyExtreme Minimum

TotalAnomaly NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 29 Nov 2010 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 a storm system is expected to bring enhanced precipitation to the eastern Ohio Valley, the northern and central Appalachians and eastern Canada. Near average precipitation is expected in the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, Alaska and the Canadian Prairies.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 above-average precipitation is forecast for the US West Coast with drier than average weather for the lower Mississippi Valley and western Canada. Forecasts from 29 Nov 2010 – Week 2

Forecast Verification: North America Total Anomaly Forecast from 15 Nov 2010 Valid 22 – 28 Nov 2010 Forecast from 22 Nov 2010 Valid 22 – 28 Nov 2010 Observed 22 – 28 Nov 2010 Anomaly Total

Mexico and Central America Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly For more information see: During the past 7 days, above average precipitation was observed in Panama, with near to below-average precipitation for the rest of Mexico, Central America and Hispaniola.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days, much of Mexico has observed near to drier than average precipitation, while Panama has observed above-average precipitation.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 29 Nov 2010 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 enhanced rainfall is expected to continue in Panama, with drier than average weather forecast for the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and parts of interior Central America.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 29 Nov 2010– Week 2 For Days 8-14 the forecast is similar to the Day 1-7 period, with enhanced rains for Panama and drier than average weather expected for many of the Central American countries.

Forecast Verification: Central America Total Anomaly Forecast from 15 Nov 2010 Valid 22 – 28 Nov 2010 Forecast from 22 Nov 2010 Valid 22 – 28 Nov 2010 Observed 22 – 28 Nov 2010 Anomaly Total

Eurasia Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 7 days, above average precipitation impacted parts of southern Europe and western Russia. Heavy rain also impacted Sri Lanka and southern India.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days precipitation has been above average in central Europe, southern India and Indonesia. Precipitation has been below average in eastern China, Turkey, and central Africa. During La Nina it is typical to see wetter than average conditions in Indonesia.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days After several weeks of mostly dry weather, precipitation increased this past week in eastern Ukraine.

Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum AnomalyExtreme Minimum Above-average temperatures were observed across parts of the eastern half of Europe for a third week in a row. Snow cover is present across most of northern Europe. Temperatures were near to above average in northwest Africa.

Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum Temperatures were much above average in western Russia for a third week in a row. Parts of the Southern District saw above- freezing minimum temperatures. Most of northern half of Russia and northeast Kazakhstan are under snow cover.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum Near to above average temperatures were observed across most of India. In China, freezes were observed north of the Yangtze River. Temperatures were near to above average across most of China.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 29 Nov 2010 – Days 1-7 For more information on Global Tropical Hazards see: (updated Monday at 4pm) For Days 1-7 enhanced rainfall (partially from background La Nina conditions) is expected to continue in Indonesia. Wet weather is also forecast for parts of Europe, western Russia, southern India, and parts of eastern China.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 wet conditions are expected to continue in Europe and Indonesia. Some precipitation is forecast for southern China. Forecasts from 29 Nov 2010 – Week 2

Forecast Verification: Eurasia Total Anomaly Forecast from 15 Nov 2010 Valid 22 – 28 Nov 2010 Forecast from 22 Nov 2010 Valid 22 – 28 Nov 2010 Observed 22 – 28 Nov 2010 Anomaly Total

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