CLIMATE Concepts, Climate of the Philippines and ENSO (EL Niño-Southern Oscillation) Ernesto R. Verceles PAGASA 01 December 2005

WHY DO WE STUDY CLIMATE?  Determines the availability of water or soil moisture.  Serves as a major factor in the development of human settlements.  Identify incidences of unfavorable events such as; existence of drought or floods existence of drought or floods occurrence of destructive typhoons occurrence of destructive typhoons plant pest and diseases plant pest and diseases  Influences the timing of many economic activities Beginning of plowing, planting Beginning of plowing, planting postponement of fishing activities postponement of fishing activities Conduct of field operations and others Conduct of field operations and others

Definition of Terms CLIMATE is the long-term average of weather. CLIMATE - is the long-term average of weather. NORMAL (Climatological Normal) – the average value of a meteorological element over any fixed period. Thirty (30) year period was mandated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). WEATHER - is the state of the atmosphere at a particular place and time. It is measured in terms of such parameters as winds, temperatures, humidity, atmospheric pressure, cloudiness and precipitation. In most places, weather can change from hour-to-hour or day-to-day.

Definition of Terms ANOMALY (Departure from Normal) – the deviation of rainfall or temperature from climatological normal. SEASON a division of the year according to some regularly recurrent phenomena, usually astronomical or climatic. In the Philippines, winds and rainfall are the determining factors (southwest monsoon associated with wet season and northeast monsoon associated with dry season). SEASON - a division of the year according to some regularly recurrent phenomena, usually astronomical or climatic. In the Philippines, winds and rainfall are the determining factors (southwest monsoon associated with wet season and northeast monsoon associated with dry season). EXTREMES OF CLIMATE The highest and lowest value of a climatic element, such as warm/cold or floods/droughts, as observed in a given period (month or season). EXTREMES OF CLIMATE – The highest and lowest value of a climatic element, such as warm/cold or floods/droughts, as observed in a given period (month or season).

Strong winds Passage of tropical cyclonesPassage of tropical cyclones TornadoesTornadoes Local thunderstorm activityLocal thunderstorm activity Natural Hazards Associated with Extreme Climate Hazards Causes Drought Extended dry periodsExtended dry periods Early end of rainy seasonEarly end of rainy season Weak monsoon activityWeak monsoon activity Less number of tropical cyclonesLess number of tropical cyclones Floods Passage of tropical cyclonesPassage of tropical cyclones Intense monsoon rainsIntense monsoon rains Local thunderstorm activityLocal thunderstorm activity Storm surges Passage of intense tropical cyclones over strategic / prone areasPassage of intense tropical cyclones over strategic / prone areas Heat / cold waves Monsoon surges and other seasonal abnormalitiesMonsoon surges and other seasonal abnormalities SunSun Influencing factors (Climate Controls) Latitude (North/South) Latitude (North/South) Land and Water Land and Water Altitude/Mountain barriers Altitude/Mountain barriers Semi-permanent High/Low Pressure SystemsSemi-permanent High/Low Pressure Systems Winds, Air MassesWinds, Air Masses Ocean Currents/ TemperaturesOcean Currents/ Temperatures Geography/TopographyGeography/Topography Tropical CyclonesTropical Cyclones Linear SystemsLinear Systems ITCZ ITCZ Frontal System Frontal System ENSOENSO

Geography and topography Pacific ocean China Sea China Indonesia Malaysia Japan

L L HJANUARY FEBRUARY H L L MARCH L H H H APRIL L L H H H MAY L L H HH JUNE L H H H L JULY L H H L L AUGUST L H H L L SEPTEMBER L H H L L OCTOBER H L H L H NOVEMBER H L L H H DECEMBER L L H SEMI-PERMANENT HIGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS

Southwest windflow Northeast windflow Easterlies (trade winds)

JANUARYFEBRUARYMARCHAPRILMAYJUNEJULYAUGUSTSEPTEMBEROCTOBERNOVEMBERDECEMBER OCEAN TEMPERATURES

ANIMATED SATELLITE PICTURES OF A COLD FRONT (TAIL- END AFFECTING EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON) AND ITCZ AFFECTING SOUTHERN LUZON, VISAYAS AND MINDANAO L L L L ITCZ COLD FRONT ITCZ Linear Systems

Areas of Formation of Tropical Cyclones and Annual Average Number Worldwide An average of 100 tropical cyclones occur worldwide; 30 of which form in the western north pacific area

Weather JFMAMJJASOND Climate

THE PROVINCE OF BUKIDNON Rainfall and Temperature Malaybalay

THE PROVINCE OF BUKIDNON Rainfall and Temperatures Musuan

Southwest Monsoon Season (Habagat) associated with wet season in the country Northeast Monsoon Season (Amihan) associated with relatively dry season in the country

flood drought

El Niño (La Niña) is a condition in the Pacific ocean and characterized by the cyclic warming (cooling) of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP). Observed Sea Surface Temperature Analyzed Sea Surface Temperature EL NIÑO LA NIÑA Lower temp Higher temp Cooler temp Warmer temp PhilippinesPhilippines PhilippinesPhilippines CEEP warming CEEP cooling

COMBINED EFFECT OF EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC GLOBAL IMPACTS OF ENSO EL NIÑO LA NIÑA EL NIÑO LA NIÑA RainmanRainman

Rainfall Conditions in Malaybalay during ENSO and non-ENSO Events

During El Niño EpisodeDuring La Niña Episode  Drier weather conditions Drier weather conditions Wetter weather conditions Initial results of diagnostic and statistical studies on general influences of ENSO on Philippine climate Below normal rainfall Above normal air temperatures Weak monsoon activity - but, occurrence of isolated heavy rainfall in short duration is also possible - delayed onset of the rainy season - early termination of the rainy season Weak tropical cyclones activity - tropical cyclones follow tracks further off the Philippines - less number of tropical cyclones entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Above normal rainfall Near-to-below normal air temperatures Moderate to strong monsoon activity - increased cloudiness and widespread rains - near normal to early onset of the rainy season Moderate to Strong tropical cyclones activity - near normal cyclone tracks (near and/or crossing the country) - near-to-above normal cyclone occurrences in the PAR - rain-effective cyclones

CLIMATE MAP OF THE PHILIPPINES

THE PROVINCE OF BUKIDNON Rainfall and Temperature Malaybalay

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