Understanding Iraqi opinion today A special attention to Sunni’s and their relation with ISIL Munqith M. Dagher Ph. D IIACSS founder and CEO

Methodology Three tracking polls in Sunni’s areas: a. June 2014 n= 700. CATI. b. Feb.2015 n= 800. PAPI. c. April 2015 n= 800. PAPI. Selected F2F nation wide polls between In depth interviews with Sunni’s POL. Different waves of FG’s with Sunni’s.

Generally speaking, do you think that each one of these bodies has negative influence or positive influence upon the internal situation in Iraq? ( Anbar and Ninawa has more negative attitudes toward national institutions. The worse is toward the parliament )

Generally speaking, do you think that each one of these bodies has negative influence or positive influence upon the internal situation in Iraq? Flash poll survey 2015 (Anbar and Ninawa have the same negative attitudes toward ISIL and Shias militias. Sadrist got the less negative evaluation among Shia’s militias.)

Generally speaking, do you think that each one of these bodies has negative influence or positive influence upon the internal situation in Iraq? Negative attitudes toward Iran are as worse as it is toward militias and ISIL. Sunni’s have not clear idea twoard International coalition

Flash poll survey 2015 The media broadcasted recently news about the marching of the People Moblized Forces in Saladin areas. How far you feel good toward this news? Sunni’s,specially in Nainawa and Anbar have serious concerns about People Mobilized forces

Revenge and Iranian influence behind these concerns (ISIL propaganda is using this widely in their communication strategy) what is the reason behind concern marching of the People Mobilized Forces in Saladin areas ?

In comparison with legal institutions(though they don’t trust it) Sunni’s clearly against ISIL Some of the Sunni representatives have stated recently that living under ISIL control is better than living under the Iraqi government control, do you agree with this?

How much confidence do you have in the following to improve the situation in Iraq? (Iraqi Government) C. Lack of trust (1)

But its different picture when comparing ISIL with Shia’s militias specially in Ninawa Some of the Sunni representatives have stated recently via media that living under ISIL control is better than allowing the Shia militias to enter Saladin and Mosul, do you agree with this?

The age,the gender, of those who prefer living under ISILcontrol rather than control of shia militia Who are those who preferred ISIL over Shia’s militia’s ? Mainly Young Sunni’s

If I want to form a force to fight ISIL and eliminating it from AL Mosul, so which of the following bodies you agree to participate with this force? Iraqi army, Police and Tribe are the preferred forces to fight ISIL

A Reportage has been posted recently about what did ISIL achieve in the areas which it controlled, according to what you think, are there some positives which ISIL achieved in the areas that it controlled? Security and fighting corruption are the main achievements of ISIL

How safe/unsafe do you feel in your neighborhood? Mosul and Salahdin Nation wide survey June 2014 Sunni vs. Shia Perceived Insecurity – Mosul and Salahdin

According to what you think, what are the most prominent negatives which ISIL brought in down the areas which it controlled ? Lack of Public services and deterioration of economic situation are the main negatives of ISIL

Why then did Dai’sh take over Sunni’s areas? Political and social factors What then explains Dai’sh takeover of Sunni areas? Based on series of polls and in-depth interviews which I made during the last year,I have reached a solid conclusion. In the areas where Da'ish/ISIL have surged, there exist wide feelings of injustice, deep resentments about basic inequality and a growing gap of trust between the governors and the governed. What this has led to in the areas where Da'ish/ISIL has strengthened its grip is a radicalism that is filling the gap left absence of national identity.

Sunnis’ association with Iraq as the basis for their identity decreased sharply from 80% in 2008 to 60% in 2010 and it is now only 40% Iraqi Sunni National Identification

Niche of Hope. Its not difficult to gain back Sunni’s trust

We only need to identify the right approach (1) Though Da'ish/ISIL alternative cannot logically hold, what we need to direct our attention towards today is a way to address the real social and political needs of people in these areas that will further de-legitimize Da'ish/ISIL. Dai’sh raised up in Sunni’s areas in Iraq and Syria as a result of deep and wide feelings of injustice, unfairness and lack of trust in governments. Without addressing and healing these feelings in the region, any military action will have a very limited results and may make things even worse.

We only need to identify the right approach(2) There are several rationales that ISIL is using to drive this recruitment: o First, there is the external threat of the Iraqi military and police forces of the Maliki government that were largely composed of Shi'a militias who broadly abused local populations over the last several years. o Second, there is a strong and growing hatred of Iran and its involvement in these areas (Click Video)(Click Video) o Third, there is a new, combined threat posed by the United States acting in concert with Iran. This is being communicated as a "new crusade" of Christians against Muslims.

We only need to identify the right approach (3) Another basis of recruitment is theological, defense of Sunni values. Yet this is flawed on many levels. As indicated previously, Sunnis are, on the whole, significantly more secular than Shi'a. The destruction of mosques is one example of how ISIL are imposing their own version of religion that is not consistent with the practices and traditions of the region. More information about this needs to be disseminated.

ISIL is anticipating airstrikes and aims to gain maximum advantage from these. Currently, ISIL is placing its flag on civilian centers to ensure maximum collateral damage from strikes, that will push public sentiment further to its side and generate even greater hatred of those behind the strikes. Airstrikes alone will be disastrous. A carefully-calibrated effort to win the hearts and mind of the people in this areas is critically important, yet there has been too little discussion of what this will involve. The fears of the people in these areas must be addressed and a better alternative to ISIL must be presented. There are a number of ways to communicate with people in these areas We only need to identify the right approach (4)

Thank you