Tyler C. Folsom, PhD, PE Project Manager, Qi2, Kent, WA Professor, University of Washington, Bothell, WA

Safer roads Self-driving taxis blur the distinction between public and private transportation Less need for parking

1. Cars with improved Driver Assistance Systems (DAS) but still requiring a driver. 2. Cars that typically drive themselves; no license required. 3. Transit based vehicle automation. 4. People moving from fixed homes to automated Recreational Vehicles. (requires #2)

Be able to haul peak load and passengers Safety Comfort Status

Base two-person pods can connect to form larger vehicles. The vehicle can be right-sized for the task at hand. If traffic accidents are rare, a motorcycle is almost as safe as an SUV. Small vehicles need not be cramped or Spartan.

Self-drive can produce 100% compliance with regulations; no need for traffic police. Will driver take over if regulations are unrealistic? Cars must be choreographed for optimum traffic flow: automated Road Traffic Control Automated operation might only be permitted on approved lanes. Traffic Control could limit the distance of automated travel per day, preventing the urge to sprawl.

 Reduced car ownership  Motorcycles that are almost as safe as an SUV  Post-automotive cities  Energy efficiency of 1000 (one thousand) mpg equivalent [1]  Urban transportation based on renewable electricity  Increased highway capacity with no new construction [2]  Public transportation more convenient, faster, safer and cheaper than private transportation

LocationMi/hkm/hNotes U.S. average commute 2845Average trip length is 12 mi. [3] U.S. EPA city fuel rating 1931City driving cycle assumes 43% stopped or decelerating [4] Japan city fuel rating152452% stopped or decelerating [4] Mumbai, India Minimum and maximum average speed [5]. Yakima, WA, USA Average of 44 segments posted for 35 mph during PM peak. [6]

Typical light rail average speeds LocationMi/hkm/hNotes Tokyo, Japan1626Marunouchi line from Kasumigaseki to Ikebukuro travels 10.8 km in 25 minutes New York City, USA Average subway scheduled speed [7] Seattle, USA2235Downtown to airport is 15.5 mi, scheduled in 38 minutes plus 5 minute average wait time [8]. Vancouver, Canada2845Does not include wait times MARTA, Atlanta, USA Average scheduled speed [7] Washington, DC, USA Average scheduled speed [7]

Power = K 1 * m * v + K 2 * v 3 Rolling + Aerodynamic m: mass; v: velocity The less-simplified version needs additional rolling power to overcome slopes or stop-and- go [9].

Once there is a large pool of depleted batteries, energy can be harvested any time the sun shines or the wind blows. Major reduction in fossil fuel consumption. Less air and water pollution; improved public health. Fewer green-house gasses. Oil is no longer a strategic commodity, and military spending can decrease.

 Less required parking. A few remote lots, rather than at each building.  Human-scaled communities?  Increased / decreased sprawl?  Parking for vehicular homeless?  Distributed solar & wind power generation?  Reduced need for heavy buses / trucks → lighter roads?

[1] Tyler C. Folsom, Energy and Autonomous Vehicles, IEEE Technology and Society Magazine, Summer 2012, draft on [2] S. E. Shladover, “Reasons for operating AHS vehicles in platoons”, in Automated Highway Systems, P.A. Ioannou, Ed, New York, NY, Springer, [3] Federal Highway Administration (2009) Summary of Travel Trends – 2009 National Household Travel Survey. [4] S. C. Davis, S. W. Diegel and R. G. Boundy, Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 29. July 2010 table online cta.ornl.gov/data [5] coastal-road-travel-speed [6] City of Yakima, Travel Speed Study of Urban Streets Using GPS and GIS, [7] Matt Johnson, Average scheduled speed: How does Metro compare? metro-compare/ [8] [9] F.R. Whitt and D.G. Wilson, Bicycling Science, 2 nd ed, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press 1982.