WAGES AND SALARIES TRENDS IN ITALY September the 26th, 2013 International Trade Union House Brussels Dr. Lorenzo Birindelli 1.

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Presentation transcript:

WAGES AND SALARIES TRENDS IN ITALY September the 26th, 2013 International Trade Union House Brussels Dr. Lorenzo Birindelli 1

A MODEST REAL GROSS WAGES GROWTH, WITH SOME DOWNTURNS Key concepts: National-sectoral Collectively Agreed Wages and salaries Earnings (all wages items) Inflation (CPI, Deflator) 2

Gross earnings levels in selected EU countries at constant prices. Full-time and full-year equivalent employee average in the total economy. Private consumption expenditure deflator SOURCE: calculations on OECD data (Dataset LFS - Average annual wages). 3

Gross earnings levels in selected OECD countries at constant prices. Average compound annual growth rates (%) Full-time and full-year equivalent employee in the total economy. Private consumption expenditure deflator SOURCE: calculations on OECD data (Dataset: LFS - Average annual wages). 4

ITALY. National-sectoral Collectively Agreed Wages on Earnings Ratio (%) Gross values SOURCE: calculations on ISTAT data.

National-sectoral Collectively Agreed Wages&Salaries Index, Earnings and Consumer Prices Index (HICP) Yearly growth rates (%) Wages and Earnings are gross and at nominal values 6 SOURCE: calculations on ISTAT and OECD data.

The fiscal burden on labour (but also the financial base of the Italian welfare state) Key concepts : Tax-wedge Social contribution on employers and employees Personal income taxation 7

Selected EU countries. Average tax wedge (%) for a single person at 100% of average earnings with no child. Year 2001 and SOURCE: calculations on OECD data (Taxing Wages Enquiry).

ITALY. Comparison of standard average personal tax rates (%) for a given power purchasing parity vs SOURCE: author’s calculations.

PROGRESSING DOWNWARDS Key concepts : Individual income distribution Paid and not paid time spans Part-time 10

ITALY. Employees’ income tax returns (individuals) by taxable personal income classes at 2011 prices (%) vs (euro per year) 11 SOURCE: calculations on Dipartimento delle Finanze (MEF Finance Department) data.

THE GOOD REASONS Key concepts: Checking unemployment Tackling inflation Modest (but positive) employment quantitative trends 12

ITALY, FRANCE AND GERMANY. Unemployment rates (%) 13 SOURCE: calculations on OECD data (Dataset: Economic Outlook No 93 - June 2013 ).

ITALY, FRANCE AND GERMANY. Yearly Inflation rates (%) 14 SOURCE: calculations on OECD data (Dataset Economic Outlook No 93 - June 2013).

THE NEGATIVE SPILL-OVERS (WITH OTHERS DETERMINANTS, TOO) Key concepts: Low productivity (both factors) track Low growth 15

Selected OECD countries. GDP, Employment and Multi-factor productivity Average compound annual growth rates (%) 16 SOURCE: calculations on OECD data (Dataset Economic Outlook No 93 - June 2013; Productivity Database – update July 2013).

WHAT WE ARE FACING NOW Key concepts: Manufacturing decline Erosion of the social expenditure financial (and political) bases 17

ITALY. Actual (including estimates) and potential Gross Domestic Product at constant prices 18 SOURCE: calculations on OECD data (Dataset Economic Outlook No 93 - June 2013).