The Spratly Islands: Potential for Conflict in the South China Sea? Raul Bernal Constantin Sabet d’Acre

Location

Our Journey Who wants what and why Why it’s important Strategic Interests of China and the US Potential for conflict

Territorial Claims over the South China Seas, Part I The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS) Claims based on UNCLOS –Brunei –Malaysia

Territorial Claims over the South China Seas, II Based on history –People’s Republic of China –Taiwan Based on mix of history and UNCLOS –Philippines –Vietnam Other concerned party: Indonesia

Driving Forces of Interest Strategic position in terms of security Economic importance –Shipping lanes –Oil and gas –Fishing and manure

Oil Flows and Transports

Driving Forces of Interest Strategic position in terms of security Economic importance –Shipping lanes –Oil and gas –Fishing and manure

Perceptions of China in SE Asia Historical mistrust of China Rapid change in attitudes in the past 5-10 years Reengagement with Southeast Asia Economic benefits, but many still skeptical of long- term ambitions

China’s Conduct in the SCS 1974 – Paracel Islands seized 1992 – Territorial expansion law 1995 – Seizure of Mischief Reef 2002 – Conduct of Parties in SCS 2005 – Joint seismic survey 2010 – Chinese fishing patrols Source:

China’s Strategic Interests Access to natural resources Control of sea lanes Projection of military force Extended regional influence Source: PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs

US Strategic Interests Counter Chinese influence Security of sea lanes Military access Counterterrorism efforts Source: US Defense Department

Potential for US-China Conflict US disengagement and “benign neglect” of SE Asia Oil exploration by US companies 2001 – Spy plane incident 2002 – USS Bowditch 2009 – USNS Impeccable

USNS Impeccable Incident Sonar and mapping ship operating within China’s EEZ Surrounded by several Chinese vessels Chinese submarine base at Hainan island US responds with Aegis Class Destroyer (USS Chung-Hoon) Source: Jane’s Intelligence Review

Analysis US: –not taking sides on sovereignty issues –but concerned with increasing Chinese influence and military power in the region China: –becoming more assertive in territorial claims despite increasing regional integration ASEAN: –desires closer economic ties with China –but engages the US as a hedge against Chinese influence