MED-CSP Concentrating Solar Power for the Mediterranean Region WP1: Sustainability Goals WP2: Renewable Energy Technologies WP3: Renewable Energy Resources WP4: Demand Side Analysis WP5: Scenario & Market Strategies (Water) WP6: Socio-Economical Impacts WP7: Environmental Impacts

Water demand is calculated as a function of population and economic growth. Starting data from the year 2000 was obtained from FAO Aquastat. The future water demand of the agricultural sector was calculated as function of population. The idea behind the model is that the per capita water supply for food production purposes is maintained at least constant in every country to avoid an increasing dependency on food imports. Although renewable water resources are scarce in many MENA countries, salt water, energy for desalination and land are plenty. This is a different approach than that reflected by a FAO study given in the following figure, where the total water withdrawal in most MENA countries is stagnating in spite of the growing population. This would lead to strong reduction of agricultural activities, as the urban water demand will grow steadily in MENA. In our scenario, the efficiency of irrigation technologies is enhanced with time, through change of irrigation systems and technical advance. Irrigation efficiency values start with actual levels in each country and achieve best practice (60 – 70 %) by The water demand of the industrial and domestic sector growths in proportion to the national economy represented by the GDP according to the scenario CG/HE. Efficiency enhancements of the municipal water supply system are considered. Efficiency starts with actual values in each country and reaches best practice values (> 80 %) by Calculation of Water Demand grows with GDP grows with total population

Urban Centres in the EU-MENA Region

Percentage of Irrigated Area per 100 km² in Southern Europe and Maghreb Countries Source:

Percentage of Irrigated Area per 100 km² in Western Asia and Arabian Peninsula Source:

Water Demand Structure in MENA (Scenario CG/HE)

Sustainable water resources in 2000 are taken from the FAO Aquastat database, taking into consideration exploitable renewable surface and groundwater resources. A possible future depletion of this resources due to climate change is not considered. Increased re-use of wastewater is taken into consideration, subsequently increasing the renewable water resources according to the wastewater potentials. The following figure shows the renewable water resources per capita of the analyzed region. The CSP- desalination potentials of all MENA countries with a per capita renewable water resource of less than 2000 m³/cap/y were investigated within the MED-CSP study. Non-sustainable use of water resources includes overexploitation of groundwater resources and desalination with fossil fuels. Desalination capacities are taken from the World Desalting Plants Inventory /Wangnick 2004/. Overuse of groundwater resources is estimated from World Bank Data /Saghiri 2000/ and from the FAO Aquastat Database In most countries with unsustainable use of water, the amount of unsustainable water will grow until 2025 due to the fact the CSP industrial production capacities cannot cope with the large demand before Part of this unsustainable water could be desalted with other renewable energies. However, this amount is neglected. It is assumed that the non-sustainable use of water is gradually replaced by seawater desalination with renewable energies, mainly CSP, as soon as the industrial production capacities become large enough. In the scenario, the replacement of unsustainable water use takes place as soon as possible. In the real world, this change will probably be slower, if the yield and cost of the non-renewable water withdrawals allow for this. Additionally growing water demand is provided by unexploited renewable water sources in a first place or – after making use of the total renewable water potential – also by seawater desalted with renewable energies. Energy used for seawater desalination is additional to the electricity demand calculated in the MED-CSP scenario CG/HE, which only considers conventional uses of electricity. The biggest potential CSP desalination markets until 2050 are visible in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Libya and the United Arab Emirates. Syria has also a large demand for seawater desalination, but CSP potentials were eliminated through site exclusion by priority agricultural use and forests at the seashore. However, multipurpose CSP plants could become compatible with agricultural activities in such cases, as they can be combined with agricultural activities (ref. WP 2 and WP 6). Calculation of Water Supply

Total Renewable Water Resources (TRWR) and Dependency Ratio (DR)* Source: Review of World Water Resources by Country, Water Report 23, FAO 2003 * Dependency Ratio: Water dependency on rivers flowing into a country from outside

Seawater Desalination Capacities in 2004 Source: Wangnick Consulting 2004

Source: Saghiri 2000

Seawater Desalination Capacities in 2004 and in 2050

Seawater desalination capacities and non-sustainable water withdrawal in 2004, and expected desalination capacity in

Non-sustainable water includes overexploitation of groundwater resources and desalination with fossil fuels. Sustainable water includes all natural surface and groundwater resources that are renewable and exploitable, plus increasingly re-used wastewater. A possible reduction of renewable water due to climate change is not considered. CSP-Desalination includes seawater desalination on the basis of renewable energy, mainly CSP, in each country within the scenario CG/HE.

Non-sustainable water includes overexploitation of groundwater resources and desalination with fossil fuels. Sustainable water includes all natural surface and groundwater resources that are renewable and exploitable, plus increasingly re-used wastewater. A possible reduction of renewable water due to climate change is not considered. CSP-Desalination includes seawater desalination on the basis of renewable energy, mainly CSP, in each country within the scenario CG/HE.

Non-sustainable water includes overexploitation of groundwater resources and desalination with fossil fuels. Sustainable water includes all natural surface and groundwater resources that are renewable and exploitable, plus increasingly re-used wastewater. A possible reduction of renewable water due to climate change is not considered. CSP-Desalination includes seawater desalination on the basis of renewable energy, mainly CSP, in each country within the scenario CG/HE.

Non-sustainable water includes overexploitation of groundwater resources and desalination with fossil fuels. Sustainable water includes all natural surface and groundwater resources that are renewable and exploitable, plus increasingly re-used wastewater. A possible reduction of renewable water due to climate change is not considered. CSP-Desalination includes seawater desalination on the basis of renewable energy, mainly CSP, in each country within the scenario CG/HE.

Non-sustainable water includes overexploitation of groundwater resources and desalination with fossil fuels. Sustainable water includes all natural surface and groundwater resources that are renewable and exploitable, plus increasingly re-used wastewater. A possible reduction of renewable water due to climate change is not considered. CSP-Desalination includes seawater desalination on the basis of renewable energy, mainly CSP, in each country within the scenario CG/HE.

Non-sustainable water includes overexploitation of groundwater resources and desalination with fossil fuels. Sustainable water includes all natural surface and groundwater resources that are renewable and exploitable, plus increasingly re-used wastewater. A possible reduction of renewable water due to climate change is not considered. CSP-Desalination includes seawater desalination on the basis of renewable energy, mainly CSP, in each country within the scenario CG/HE.

Non-sustainable water includes overexploitation of groundwater resources and desalination with fossil fuels. Sustainable water includes all natural surface and groundwater resources that are renewable and exploitable, plus increasingly re-used wastewater. A possible reduction of renewable water due to climate change is not considered. CSP-Desalination includes seawater desalination on the basis of renewable energy, mainly CSP, in each country within the scenario CG/HE.

Non-sustainable water includes overexploitation of groundwater resources and desalination with fossil fuels. Sustainable water includes all natural surface and groundwater resources that are renewable and exploitable, plus increasingly re-used wastewater. A possible reduction of renewable water due to climate change is not considered. CSP-Desalination includes seawater desalination on the basis of renewable energy, mainly CSP, in each country within the scenario CG/HE.

Non-sustainable water includes overexploitation of groundwater resources and desalination with fossil fuels. Sustainable water includes all natural surface and groundwater resources that are renewable and exploitable, plus increasingly re-used wastewater. A possible reduction of renewable water due to climate change is not considered. CSP-Desalination includes seawater desalination on the basis of renewable energy, mainly CSP, in each country within the scenario CG/HE.

Non-sustainable water includes overexploitation of groundwater resources and desalination with fossil fuels. Sustainable water includes all natural surface and groundwater resources that are renewable and exploitable, plus increasingly re-used wastewater. A possible reduction of renewable water due to climate change is not considered. CSP-Desalination includes seawater desalination on the basis of renewable energy, mainly CSP, in each country within the scenario CG/HE.

Non-sustainable water includes overexploitation of groundwater resources and desalination with fossil fuels. Sustainable water includes all natural surface and groundwater resources that are renewable and exploitable, plus increasingly re-used wastewater. A possible reduction of renewable water due to climate change is not considered. CSP-Desalination includes seawater desalination on the basis of renewable energy, mainly CSP, in each country within the scenario CG/HE.

Non-sustainable water includes overexploitation of groundwater resources and desalination with fossil fuels. Sustainable water includes all natural surface and groundwater resources that are renewable and exploitable, plus increasingly re-used wastewater. A possible reduction of renewable water due to climate change is not considered. CSP-Desalination includes seawater desalination on the basis of renewable energy, mainly CSP, in each country within the scenario CG/HE.

Non-sustainable water includes overexploitation of groundwater resources and desalination with fossil fuels. Sustainable water includes all natural surface and groundwater resources that are renewable and exploitable, plus increasingly re-used wastewater. A possible reduction of renewable water due to climate change is not considered. CSP-Desalination includes seawater desalination on the basis of renewable energy, mainly CSP, in each country within the scenario CG/HE.

Non-sustainable water includes overexploitation of groundwater resources and desalination with fossil fuels. Sustainable water includes all natural surface and groundwater resources that are renewable and exploitable, plus increasingly re-used wastewater. A possible reduction of renewable water due to climate change is not considered. CSP-Desalination includes seawater desalination on the basis of renewable energy, mainly CSP, in each country within the scenario CG/HE.

Non-sustainable water includes overexploitation of groundwater resources and desalination with fossil fuels. Sustainable water includes all natural surface and groundwater resources that are renewable and exploitable, plus increasingly re-used wastewater. A possible reduction of renewable water due to climate change is not considered. CSP-Desalination includes seawater desalination on the basis of renewable energy, mainly CSP, in each country within the scenario CG/HE.

Non-sustainable water includes overexploitation of groundwater resources and desalination with fossil fuels. Sustainable water includes all natural surface and groundwater resources that are renewable and exploitable, plus increasingly re-used wastewater. A possible reduction of renewable water due to climate change is not considered. CSP-Desalination includes seawater desalination on the basis of renewable energy, mainly CSP, in each country within the scenario CG/HE.

Non-sustainable water includes overexploitation of groundwater resources and desalination with fossil fuels. Sustainable water includes all natural surface and groundwater resources that are renewable and exploitable, plus increasingly re-used wastewater. A possible reduction of renewable water due to climate change is not considered. CSP-Desalination includes seawater desalination on the basis of renewable energy, mainly CSP, in each country within the scenario CG/HE.

Non-sustainable water includes overexploitation of groundwater resources and desalination with fossil fuels. Sustainable water includes all natural surface and groundwater resources that are renewable and exploitable, plus increasingly re-used wastewater. A possible reduction of renewable water due to climate change is not considered. CSP-Desalination includes seawater desalination on the basis of renewable energy, mainly CSP, in each country within the scenario CG/HE.

Non-sustainable water includes overexploitation of groundwater resources and desalination with fossil fuels. Sustainable water includes all natural surface and groundwater resources that are renewable and exploitable, plus increasingly re-used wastewater. A possible reduction of renewable water due to climate change is not considered. CSP-Desalination includes seawater desalination on the basis of renewable energy, mainly CSP, in each country within the scenario CG/HE.