National Population Projections and the challenges of an ageing population Helen Bray and Shayla Goldring ONS
National population projections - key points Rising fertility, rising life expectancy and record levels of net migration Big increase in projected total population size Population ageing
Data availability National population projections data remain on the GAD website: Data to be moved to NS Online during 2008
How are assumptions decided? Analysis of demographic trends Expert advisory panel Formal consultation Assumptions agreed by ONS and devolved administrations
UK population
UK population,
Actual and projected TFR, UK,
Period expectation of life at birth (EOLB), UK,
Annual mortality improvement, UK male/female comparison
Period and cohort expectations of life at birth, UK,
Actual and projected net migration, UK,
Actual and projected UK births and deaths,
Projected components of UK population change,
Total UK population, variant projections,
UK population pyramid, 2006
UK population pyramid, 2006 and 2031
Projected elderly demographic support ratio, UK,
Projected demographic support ratio, UK,
Percentage of the UK population aged 65 and over, variant projections,
Challenges of an ageing population - Outline Background Implications of population ageing –Health –Social Services –Housing –Labour Force –Pensions –Well being Future work
Background Source: ONS: Censuses ; National Population Projections Population age structure, UK
Background Percentage of population aged 60 and over, Source: Eurostat 2004 based population projections
Implications Ageing will have an impact on the following areas: –Health – increasing demand for GP and hospital care –Social Services – increasing demand for long term care –Housing – ‘new homes must cater for ageing’ 26/1/2008 –Labour force – increasing number of older workers –Pensions – increasing state pensions bill –Well being/social cohesion..however, the size of the effects are interrelated with changing trends in living arrangements, partnership status and also policy intervention
Living arrangements Source: ONS: General Household Survey (Longitudinal) People living alone, by sex and age: 1986/87 and 2005, Great Britain Women –24 25–44 45–64 65–74 75 and over Age Percentages 1986/ Men Percentages 1986/
Partnership status Source: ONS: 2003 based Marital Status Projections Females aged 65 and over by partnership status, , England and Wales
Percentage of women with no children or only one child at age 45, by birth cohort, England and Wales Source: ONS: Vital events registration data and General Household Survey data. Completed family size
Employment Average age of the working age population (16- SPA), , UK Note: Includes changes to State Pension Age Source: ONS: Mid-year population estimates, ; National Population Projections
Summary UK not ageing as fast as EU on average Still important to prepare for larger numbers and greater proportionate share of population at older ages in UK Need for more information and also co-ordinated and coherent reporting
ONS Future work on ageing Quantifying the demographic drivers of ageing Inequalities in age at retirement How are trends in family formation and dissolution likely to affect the proportion of family members providing care? Other parts of ONS How much are we saving for retirement? Are we saving enough? Health at older ages
Contacts National projections and the ageing population –NPP Branch – – –or – – –Ageing Unit – – –Morbidity and health care - – –Pensions Analysis Unit