Status of climate change/ variability studies & potential impacts on national & regional agriculture WMO Region I - Africa Mr. Bernard Edward Gomez Principal.

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Presentation transcript:

Status of climate change/ variability studies & potential impacts on national & regional agriculture WMO Region I - Africa Mr. Bernard Edward Gomez Principal Meteorologist Department of Water Resources 7, Marina Parade Banjul, The Gambia Tel: (+220) /

Presentation Plan Regional Context Approach of the assessment Potential impacts on agriculture, forestry, rangelands & fisheries

Regional Context Significant diversity ( landform, climate, culture, economic situation, biota, etc.) Climates ( Mediterranean, arid, semi-arid, humid) High dependence on climate sensitive natural resources sectors General weakness in science & technology Declining per capita food production Low capacity for state-initiated interventions

Approach of the Assessment Studies did not use a common set of climate scenarios and methods / sensitivities & adaptability of natural & social systems are uncertain, assessment is mainly qualitative Insufficient rigour particularly in FNCs, coupled with uncertainties in cc science Constraints (time, resource (human/material) low feedback on questionnaire) climate categories (Medit., Arid, Semi-arid, humid)

Potential Impacts on Agriculture Major impacts to occur from changes in temp., moisture levels, uv radiation, CO 2, pests/diseases In Medit., Arid & Semi-arid climates, rise in temp. would increase evap & soil salinity leading to further land degradation; this added to reductions in rainfall threaten irrigation potential

Agriculture - contd Temp. increase threatens food production ( maize, wheat, millet, sorghum) significantly Increase in extreme wx. events under cc expected to increase stresses on production Agro-ecological shifts threaten some crop species, as well as favour the appearance of new pests/diseases

Potential Impacts on Rangelands Drier conditions expected to increase freq. of uncontrolled fires in rangelands Ecological shifts due to temp. likely to cause invasion of grasslands (SA) by trees In arid & semi-arid regions, reductions in plant cycles, shift & reduction of growth period, favor extinction/migration of species In humid regions, C/N ratio of fodder will drop further, reducing feed quality

Potential Impacts on Forestry Due to the close correlation between climate ( temp & ppt) and vegetation, climate change will alter the distribution & productivity of vegetation Drier conditions would lead to decline in wood productivity, affecting household fuel needs & local wood industries

Potential Impacts on Fisheries Least assessed sector Decrease in ppt would affect lake/river fisheries Temp. increases are likely to reduce upwelling effects along the Atlantic Ocean

Thank you for your attention!