GDP THE LONG-TERM FORECAST FOR RUSSIAN ECONOMY UP TO 2030 RUSSIAN ECONOMY UP TO 2030 (BY VARIANTS) GDP 1980 ©Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS Moscow 2007

Logic of interaction of economic variables in complex of models IEF RAS INCOM OUTPUT RESOURCE RESTRICTIONS AND INVESTMENTS PRICES PARAMETERS OF ECONOMIC POLICY © Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS 2

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Decomposition under factors increase of GDP per ©Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS 5 Inventory

Rates of internal demand and GDP, % (by corresponding a quarter of the last year ) Internal demand GDP ©Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS 6

7 Investments share in GDP 25% Dynamics of GDP depending on a capital intensity and share of investments in GDP

The forecast of dynamics of GDP depending on norm of capital formation and growth of a capital intensity (a share of formation of %) GDP, % Level of a capital intensity of GDP Investments Share in GDP, % - right scale ©Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS 8

9 Balance of factors of delay and acceleration of GDP from a final demand (on the end of the period on average values of contributions of factors) From the capital

©Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS 10

Dynamics of GDP and its elements, % for a year (an investment variant)

©Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS Dynamics of outputs on sectors, % for a year Investment scenario Construction

©Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS Dynamics of GDP and its elements, % for a year (an Inertial variant )