SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Using a Systems Approach in Energy Risk Assessment Dan Wilson The Midlands Energy Graduate School II Annual Conference,

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Presentation transcript:

SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Using a Systems Approach in Energy Risk Assessment Dan Wilson The Midlands Energy Graduate School II Annual Conference, 8 th September 2011

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Frazer-Nash Consultancy  Around 350 engineers across eight offices  Services across  Technical analysis  Systems engineering  Safety and environmental analysis and management  Range of markets:  Defence  Civil and Military Nuclear  Conventional and Renewable Energy  Transport  Oil and Gas

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Agenda  What is risk assessment?  What is a Systems Approach?  Applying a Systems Approach to a Renewable Energy scheme  Benefits of a Systems Approach  Requirements and Acceptance within risk management

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Agenda  What is risk assessment?  What is a Systems Approach?  Applying a Systems Approach to a Renewable Energy scheme  Benefits of a Systems Approach  Requirements and Acceptance within risk management

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY What is risk assessment?  How likely is it that a project will deliver to:  Performance?  Time?  Cost?  Risk Assessments are conducted to:  Inform investment  Inform Project Management

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Systems Approach  A systems approach is about:  Taking a ‘wide view’ across the system  Taking a ‘long view’ through the project

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Agenda  What is risk assessment?  What is a Systems Approach?  Applying a Systems Approach to a Renewable Energy scheme  Benefits of a Systems Approach  Requirements and Acceptance within risk management

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Applying a Systems Approach  An Investment Proposition: (licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 Generic)

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Applying a Systems Approach: A Wide View  Investment Considerations:  What is the return?  What is the risk?  Other considerations:  Strategic positioning  Portfolio balancing

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY What Does an Energy Scheme Need to Do?

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY What Does an Energy Scheme Need to Do?  Provide Electrical Power  Trade in the Energy Market  Respond to output change demands

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Applying a Systems Approach: A Wide View

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Applying a Systems Approach: A Wide View

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Applying a Systems Approach: A Wide View

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Applying a Systems Approach: A Wide View

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Applying a Systems Approach: A Wide View

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Applying a Systems Approach: A Wide View

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Applying a Systems Approach: Long View

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Applying a Systems Approach: Long View Technical Risk

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Technology Risk  How much will it cost to get the technology ready for deployment?

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Applying a Systems Approach: Long View Provider Risk

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Applying a Systems Approach: Long View Technical Risk Ongoing Liabilities

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Agenda  What is risk assessment?  What is a Systems Approach?  Applying a Systems Approach to a Renewable Energy scheme  Benefits of a Systems Approach  Requirements and Acceptance within risk management

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Benefits of a Systems Approach  Structured and auditable assessment method to ensure everything is considered  Identify Dependencies  Target mitigation resources

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Structured Assessment

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Identify Dependencies

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Target Mitigation Effort

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Target Mitigation Effort

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Agenda  What is risk assessment?  What is a Systems Approach?  Applying a Systems Approach to a Renewable Energy scheme  Benefits of a Systems Approach  Managing risk with Requirements and Acceptance

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Ongoing Management of Risk  Risk assessment is about  Performance  Time  Cost  To deliver this:  Requirements define what is required from each element.  Acceptance ensures that the project is on track to meet those objectives.

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Requirements

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Requirements

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Requirements

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Requirements

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Requirements  Requirements have identified:  What the system needs to be able to do to be a success  What constrains how it can be done  Requirements identify where risks may exist  Quantify risk  Mitigate the risk

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Acceptance Time Consequence Design ManufactureInstallation

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Acceptance ProbabilityConsequence Time Design ManufactureInstallation Risk Value =Probability x Consequence

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Risk Value =Probability x Consequence Acceptance ProbabilityConsequence Design Review Factory Test Commissioning Time Design ManufactureInstallation

© Frazer-Nash Consultancy Ltd All rights reserved. SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Summary  Application of a Systems Approach to Risk Assessment gives:  A structured approach to the identification of risks  A means to fully assess the consequence  Target mitigation effort  Application of a Requirements and Acceptance Process  Identifies what is needed into distinct elements  Identifies the constraints imposed by the environment and other parts of the system  Mitigates the risks through progressive acceptance

SYSTEMS AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY Dan Wilson Tel: (0117) For more information; “Utilising a Risk-Based Systems Approach in Renewable Energy Due Diligence”, Wilson, D.M., Rowley, P.R., Watson, S.J., IEEE Systems Journal, Issue 5, Volume 2.