Fundaments of demography

Demography – introduction Demos + grafein Study of reproduction of population Population inhabitants in the specific area group of inhabitants with the same biological, cultural and social characteristics

The history of demography 1662: John Graunt: The natural and political observations, death time table based on death time tables → modelling of the death of the London inhabitants 17th and 18th century – many theories, example: A. Smith: Labour requirement influents and determines state of population, Thomas Robert Malthus: population has an exponential growth, means of life support have linear growth

The history of demography International statistical congres 1853 in Brussels (initiator L. Quetelet) the main topic of the congres: The first demographic congres 1927, Geneve, formation of International Union for the Scientific Study of Population

Infancy of demography in czech countries 1897 Institute of antropology and demography – Charles university 1918 State statistical office, department of population statistics 1920 Charles University, Faculty of Science

Demographic information sources Yearbooks Demographic yearbook, UN, since 1948 ( demographic info about chosen countries of the world (not detailed) EUROSTAT ( detailed demographic info about EU countries Czech statistical office (ČSÚ, very detailed info about czech inhabitants

Demographic information sources Journals Population Index (USA, quarterly, since 1935) Population & Societé (France, monthly, since 1946) Demography (USA, quarterly, since 1964) Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft (GER, 4 publications per year, since 1975) Demografie (CZE, quarterly, since 1958)

Demographic data Two types of data

Population state Based on census of inhabitants or population census Census of inhabitants (collected only basic data – age, sex, occupation, etc.) Population census (big action, many personal characteristics, is done more precisely)

Population state indicators Size of population (2 types): Size of population Mid-year state of population

Population state indicators Average computation linear growth of inhabitants geometric growth of inhabitants continuous growth of inhabitants

Population state indicators Density of population

Population state indicators Population structure by sex share of men share of women index of masculinity index of feminity

Population state indicators Structure of population by age biological generation I. 0 – 14 years II. 15 – 49 years III. 50 years and over dependency ratio – according BG

Population state indicators economic generation I. 0 – 19 years (pre-productivity) II.15 – 49 years (productivity) III.50 and over (post-productivity) index of economic load weigthed index of economic load

Population state indicators young dependency rate (green dependency) old dependency rate (grey dependency)

Population state indicators Age pyramid progressive (I. BG > III. BG) stationary (I. BG ~ III. BG) regressive(I. BG < III. BG)

Population state indicators Age pyramid

Population state indicators – age pyramid

Population state indicators Age of population life expectancy – average duration of life of the current newborn normal life expectancy – the most frequently age of death (mode of live duration) probability life expectancy – age, in which could live at least a half of population (median)

Population movement indicators are directly related to reproduction of population Indicators: birth, death, marrage, divorce and moving register of natural change register of migration

Demographic indicators Study of reproduction of population process of dying-cul process of reproduction process of migration

Demographic indicators Basic indicators mortality – death ability fertility – ability of reproduction marriage – ability of making couples, which make possible a reproduction divorce – ability to cancel out of made couples migration – ability to move

Demographic indicators Mortality death rate exposition – estimate of average of population – mid-year state of population Mid-year state of population is estimated 1.arithmetical average of first and last value in the time period 2.size of population in the centre of the interval

Demographic indicators Specific indicators of mortality (by age, by sex etc.) suckling mortality – mortality up to 1 year of the suckling´s life suckling mortality quotient newborn mortality – mortality up to 28 days after childbirth newborn mortality quotient

Demographic indicators letality rate specific rate of letality – by age

Demographic indicators Natality natality rate fertility rate contingent – number of women in the fertility age (15 – 49 years)

Demographic indicators specific rate of fertility – includes age of the women total fertility rate – average number of children, which are born to 1 woman, fertility is not changing, mortality up to 50 years is zero net rate of reproduction – number of girls, which are born to 1 women, fertility is not changing a mortality up to 50 years is also not changing crude rate of reproduction – number of girls, which are born to 1 women, fertility is not changing a mortality up to 50 years is zero

Demographic indicators Newborn classification sex – index of masculinity and feminity vitality legitimate maturity – readiness to live in the real world full-term baby not full-term baby

Demographic indicators Abortion crude rate of abortion specific rate of abortion – includes age of the women total rate of abortion – average number of abortions per life of the women, fertility and abortion rate is not changing and death rate up to 50 years is zero

Demographic indicators Marriage a divorce crude marriage rate crude marriage rate – men crude marriage rate – women

Demographic indicators specific marriage rate specific first marriage rate first marriage average age

Demographic indicators crude divorce rate specific divorce rate specific divorce rates

Demographic indicators Migration number of moved in (I) and moved out (E) migration balance total migration immigration intensity emigration intensity

Demographic indicators relative migration balance total migration rate migration balance rate

Demographic indicators Population increase natural population increase K = N – M natural increase rate total population increase T = N – M + S