Workshop on Population Projections September 2012 Rabat, Morocco

Session 1: Introduction Introduction to the workshop. The need for and the utility of population projections Population projections for Africa: Background and challenges. Getting ready: Software, data, internet

Francophone Africa

Introduction to the workshop. Agenda of the workshop The workshop has 10 Sessions, most of which are presentations combined with hands-on exercises and interaction with the trainers and among participants. There will be time for participants to work on projects and exercises. There will be an evaluation of the workshop by participants at the last day of the workshop. 1.Session 1: Introduction 2.Session 2: Establishing the Base Population 3.Session 3: Background and First Steps 4.Session 4: Projecting the levels of mortality, fertility and migration 5.Session 5: Projecting the age patterns of mortality, fertility and migration 6.Session 6: Introduction to Population Projections 7.Session 7: Population projections for national populations 8.Session 8: Population projections for sub-national, sectoral or small populations 9.Session 10: Final Matters

The need for and the utility of population projections The future is unknowable…Why population projection? Who needs/uses population Projections? Producers of population projections

The future is unknowable…Why population projection? Planning for people’s needs Planning for education Planning for health system: Doctors, nurses, hospital beds Planning for old age: aging Planning for employment: demographic dividend Planning for infrastructure: Roads, Airports, Planning for housing: urbanization

But: We know some basic demographic trends Demographic processes are long-term Lasting impact of past and current changes Momentum No equilibrium yet There are profound changes going on in all countries of the world Demographic transition as guiding principle Countries move from high fertility and mortality to low fertility and mortality – still in progress in many developing countries

The demographic transition animated 1 %2 %3 %4 %0 % Growth rate

Transformation of age structures: => From pyramid to (almost) rectangle. => From young populations to older populations

World Population Ageing

Transformation of survival: => From early deaths to late deaths.

Changing survival

What population projections can reveal

Planning for Education Nigeria

Population growth rate

Aging

Urbanization

Who needs, who uses population Projections? Main users Governments (ministries of education, health, planning, etc) Regional and local governments Private sector (demand, supply)

Who needs, who uses Population Projections? NUMBER OF COUNTRIES THAT HAVE CONDUCTED NATIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS 54% 34% 67% 52% 80%

Producers of population projections Governments: NSO, other national institutions Regional organizations: EUROSTAT, CELADE (UN Regional Commission) International organizations: UNPD (WPP, WUP biennially) Others: Private Sector, international research institutions (IIASA)

Population projections for Africa: Background and challenges Challenges: Slow fertility transitions HIV/AIDS, neglected tropical diseases Urbanization Data

Slow fertility transitions

Population growth

Aging

Urbanization

Data The good news Censuses are regularly held in almost all countries in the world. The 2010 Round of Censuses has so far enumerated 88% of the world’s population in 184 censuses (As of 1 August 2012)

Data The bad news Vital registration is still a problem in most developing countries. Not just a challenge for professional statisticians, it is a challenge to human rights The scandal of invisibility: Little progress since the 1970s.

WHO region DeathsBirths 1965– – – – – – – – 2004 Africa Americas Eastern Mediterranean Europe South-East Asia Western Pacific Total Source: Mahapatra et al. 2007, table 2 Percentage of population living in countries with complete civil registration systems Analysis: Vital registration

Surveys or Civil Registration?

Getting ready: Software, data, internet Software used in the workshop Textbooks, manuals Data sources Additional tools and data

Software used in the workshop – Projection software RUPEX v Spectrum 4.5 – Demographic analysis tools MORTPAK v PASEX – General software Excel, Word, PowerPoint etc.

Textbooks, manuals – Siegel, Swanson 2004 – Preston et al – Arriaga (1994 and later) – United Nations Manuals – Software Manuals

US Census Bureau: Arriaga

Textbooks

Data sources – National data – United Nations data (UNSD, UNPD) – Other

UN Data sources: UNSD

UN Data sources: UNPD

Additional tools and data – Demographic software PADIS Applied Demographic Toolbox – Demographic data Human Mortality Database [ Human Fertility Database [ Human Life-Table Database [ INDEPTH [