Global Warming

What is it?  It is a theory that as man increases the concentration of gases: principally carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere the world´s temperature will rise and climatic changes will follow.  Based on predictions about temperature rise many potential effects have been postulated.

Why do they think this?  Based on the Greenhouse effect which causes the world to be warmer because of the presence of an atmosphere. The moon is much colder due to the lack of an atmosphere even though it is the same distance from the sun.  Historically carbon dioxide levels and temperature have fluctuated similarly

What we do know  Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have increased 25% from 0.03% to 0.04%  There is a shrinking of ice cover in the poles  Average world temperatures appeared to rise by about 0.5˚C over the last 50 years, though recently (10 years) there has been no discernible rise

What is predicted  Increasing carbon dioxide releases will lead to increased temperature rises (predictions vary wildly dependent on the computer model and the data input)  Increasing temperatures will lead to flooding as the poles melt, reduced river flows as mountain glaciers disappear, death to coral reefs due to increasing acidity of the seas and dramatic climate change in many parts of the world causing desertification, species extinction spread of tropical diseases and increased extreme weather events.

How is it predicted  Using historical data.  Extensive monitoring with satellites etc.  Using complex climate modelling with computers.  Making hysterical claims with little foundation in reality!  Coordinated by IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) set up by UN based on UK model from UK Met. Office

Who believes it  Most major world leaders and poltiical parties.  The IPCC/UN  Many influential broadcasters including the BBC  A lot of scientists, but with reservations.  Alternative energy industries and the nuclear industry and politicians and lobbyists in their pay.  Campaigning organisations

Who is sceptical  More scientists than you might think  Some broadcasting organisations  The petrochemical industry and politicians and lobbyists in their pay  Certain political parties such as the Republicans in the US  Some national governments particularly in rapidly developing countries such as India and China.

Al Gore  Ex vice president of US  Failed candidate for president.  Owner of major communications company  From one of the most influential families of the US  Produced: An Inconvenient Truth in which he highlighted the problem dramatically

Famous graph Why might this graph not support the theory?

Alternative theories  More carbon dioxide is produced by natural sources such as volcanoes than by man´s activities.  Clouds moderate the world´s temperature and these are dependent on the activity of the sun and cosmic rays. When the sun is more active it pushes away cosmic rays causing fewer clouds to be seeded and thus a warmer earth. Cyclic

Sun spots and weather

Which of these graphs?

Recent data

Controversy  Climate Gate  Al Gore´s hypocrisy selling his communications company to an oil company  Unfounded claims made in IPCC reports  Scientists agreement with report findings attributed without their agreement.  Undue importance given to ´scientists´opinions even when they are not working in relevant fields.  General questions over interpretation of data.  Every extreme weather event now attributed to global warming without the slightest shred of evidence.

Essential Viewing!  An inconvenient truth: vjC7e7Zs vjC7e7Zs  The Great Global Warming Swindle  x0_8YEtg x0_8YEtg

Task  Write an essay in which you compare arguments for and against the theory of “Man made global warming”

You must Intro Set the scene explaining how the world is responding to the crisis and what is being said and done/predicted Body Outline the key theories that support and oppose the role of humans in global warming Analysis Evaluate what interests each of these arguments is serving Evaluate the relaibility of the evidence Concl State clearly what you think and why.

Rubric (Minimum 3 pages)  Introduction (10 marks)  You must set the scene. Talk about the concerns and predictions that exist and the efforts being made by governments. You should include examples of intergovernmental organisations, summits and agreements and mention countries in disagreement. You should use at least a couple of quotes.

Body of text (10 marks  You need to outline the theory that explains man made global warming  You should summarise arguments against and counter theories

Analysis and evaluation 10 marks  You should discuss criticisms of the theories and quote reports that support or disagree with them.  You should look at the political bias and reasons why people support/disagree with man-made global warming and use this to help you evaluate the quality of their arguments  You should judge whether all statements from scientists are equally as reliable

Conclusion (10 marks)  You should state what you think and summarise data that support your point of view  You should explain why you think these are the stronger arguments.

English and structure (10 marks)  Title, name and sub titles for report sections  Pages numbered and with borders  Key visual data included, explained with a caption and accredited  Sources, quotes and references referred to in the text and or footnoted and listed at bottom  Clearly spellchecked and proof read.