TOLERATE Summary of work of VATT up to

Activities Data acquisition –RHR-Pori/Salo; TK company register for study areas; TK2007 population forecast –Own survey among companies in study areas Preliminary assessment of direct damage cost/m 2 Economic scenario (regionalisation method) Dwelling scenario Preliminary assessment of ex-ante and ex-post measures Preliminary assessment of direct and indirect cost for Pori CC floods Preliminary assessment of urban spatial economic effects of zoning versus insurance Side tasks (ISTO, presentations, contacts, etc.)

Own survey Companies in Pori / Salo / Kyrönjoki area 400 sent; 80 answers (of which 50 in flood risk area) 18 respondents had flood experience (work / home) Respondents from flood risk area tend to indicate larger impacts, notably regarding production loss Clean-up takes easily a week ….. up to month Resumption of production can lag even more Ex-post compensation for lost production: –By making extra working hours later on (30%) –By moving production to an other site (40%) –Is not possible (37%) More details and summary available Some overlap

Direct damage cost per m2 Quick scan of literature (notably English) of which is made a summary paper Quick scan of Kittilä flooding data Shape of curves is roughly the same Reported cost /m 2 vary greatly between buildings Interior & equipment on average approx. 15% of total cost/m2

Scenarios Economic (GDP; value added per sector, employment): –National – available up to 2025; still under review for –Regional – regionalisation method tested at sector level –Regional figures and translation into building demand still to be done Population and dwelling stock –Dwelling stock projections for Pori and Salo adapted for TK2007

Cost evaluation for Pori CC – preliminary 1 Direct cost to buildings (homes and commercial buildings) could run into hundreds of millions euros, but various parameters still need to be checked The extent of the flood and the water depth are important factors influencing direct cost The duration of the flooding affects the clean-up and repair cost, whereas duration and extent/depth are correlated There is probably also a (non-linear??) relation between clean-up and repair unit-cost and the scale of the flood (-> HUT investigates)

Cost evaluation for Pori CC – preliminary 2 Indirect cost might be appreciably smaller, but calculations are still very preliminary Especially for very large floods the duration of suspension of production could be appreciably longer than often assumed, and hence costs higher Loss of production value correlates quite straightforwardly with duration of flood + clean-up + repair + equipment resetting/start-up In conclusion: –prevention measures reduce the probability of occurrence of significant direct + indirect cost; –emergency management & contingent planning reduce the indirect cost