Visualizing Polar Change: Data and Tools to Understand an Arctic Climate in Transformation Walt Meier Thanks to: Lisa Ballagh, Ross Swick, John Mauer, Florence Fetterer, Ken Knowles, Mary Jo Brodzik

Visualizing Polar Change U.S.S. Jeannette Expedition, U.S. Naval Historical Center,

Visualizing Polar Change That was then…This is now Jeannette could’ve made it to within 500 km of North Pole before encountering almost any ice Little hope that Jeannette would get within 2000 km of North Pole NSIDC on GoogleEarth

Visualizing Polar Change The Cryosphere – The World of Ice and Snow Snow, sea ice, glaciers, ice sheets, frozen ground Spans 90°S  0°  90°N Affects over 100 countries Atlas of the Cryosphere,

Visualizing Polar Change Sea Ice Extent Varies through the Year Mar = 15,000,000 km 2 Sep = 7,000,000 km 2 Mar = 4,000,000 km 2 Sep = 19,000,000 km 2 Adapted from the Sea Ice Index

Visualizing Polar Change Sea Ice Varies from Year to Year September Monthly Sea Ice, 1979 – 2007 NASA Blue Marble. Thanks to M. Savoie Median

Visualizing Polar Change Summer Sea Ice is Rapidly Decreasing Trend = -10.2% per decade 1979 – 2000 Avg. = 7.0 million km 2 Data from NSIDC Sea Ice Index = 4.3 million km 2

Visualizing Polar Change How Much Sea Ice Loss are We Talking About? 1980: 7.85 million sq km 2005: 5.57 million sq km 2007: 4.28 million sq km Image by D. Perovich, Cold Regions Res. Eng. Lab September Monthly Average Sea Ice Extent from the Sea Ice Index

Visualizing Polar Change Climate Models are Underestimating Speed of Changes 2007 = 4.28 Observations vs. IPCC model simulations for month of September Range of Models Observations From Stroeve et al., 2007

Visualizing Polar Change Impacts of an Arctic without Summer Sea Ice Photo by Mike Webber, U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Visualizing Polar Change Sea Ice – Albedo Feedback Temperature  Ice melt  Albedo  Energy absorption  Heat  Amplification of warming

Visualizing Polar Change Albedo – How Much Solar Energy Gets Absorbed With sea ice: <40% absorbedWithout sea ice: >90% absorbed The change from sea ice to ice-free ocean is the largest surface contrast on earth as far as solar energy is concerned 200+ W/m 2 difference for a clear mid-summer day Up to 100X direct CO 2 forcing locally

Visualizing Polar Change Loss of Sea Ice Will Impact Climate Globally CO Alaska Sewall and Sloan, Disappearing Arctic sea ice reduces available water in the American west, Geophysical Research Letters, Precipitation decrease without Arctic sea ice during the summer

Visualizing Polar Change Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice Loss Polar bears rely on sea ice to hunt for food - 2/3 reduction in polar bear population within 50 years (USGS) Other wildlife – walrus, seals, birds, fish – also will be impacted significantly Inuit communities rely on ice for transportation, hunting; indelible part of native cultures in the north Lack of ice  coastal erosion is a substantial threat to buildings and towns Some positive benefits – commerce, e.g. through Northwest Passage Natural resources (oil, gas, minerals) Possible conflicts over national sovereignty – who “owns” the Arctic? Photo by Craig George

Visualizing Polar Change Greenland The 800-Pound Gorilla of Arctic Climate Change

Visualizing Polar Change Greenland is Melting and Losing Mass Greenland Mass Balance NASA Earth Observatory, from GRACE satellite 2007 Greenland Melt NSIDC, W. Abdalati (NASA)

Visualizing Polar Change Jakobshavn Isbrae World’s fastest flowing glacier, ~20 m per day Speed has doubled in recent years Edge of glacier has retreated dramatically since 1997 Many Greenland outlet glaciers are accelerating, thinning, and termini retreating Landsat imagery, NASA

Visualizing Polar Change Greenland ice equivalent to ~20 feet sea level rise

Visualizing Polar Change Glaciers are Receding Worldwide 1941 William O. FieldBruce Molnia, USGS 2004 Muir Glacier, Alaska

Visualizing Polar Change Glaciers are Receding Worldwide Muir Glacier Alaska NSIDC Glacier Pairs Photo Archive

Visualizing Polar Change Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) Glacier outlines and imagery Research-level data

Visualizing Polar Change Permafrost is Thawing Chersky, Russia Qinghai-Xizang Highway bridge collapse Alaska Thawing permafrost will not only affect infrastructure. There are massive amounts of GHG locked in the frozen ground that could be released if the permafrost thaws.

Visualizing Polar Change Snow Cover is Variable, Little Overall Trend Weekly Snow and Ice Cover NOAA IMS Daily Snow Cover 10 Feb Feb 2007

Visualizing Polar Change Snow is Melting Earlier in Spring Earlier snow melt has impacts on water resources – reservoir replenishment From IPCC AR4

Visualizing Polar Change Antarctica The Sleeping Giant of Climate Change Mosaic of Antarctica

Visualizing Polar Change Larsen-B: The First Victim of Global Warming? Ice shelf the size of Rhode Island collapsed in weeks First time area free of ice in ~12,000 years Glaciers behind ice shelf have accelerated significantly  sea level rise 31 January – 7 March 2002 NASA/NSIDC Atlas of the Cryosphere

Visualizing Polar Change Whither Arctic Sea Ice? Using Sea Ice Data in the Classroom AccessData Earth Exploration Toolbook chapter Developed by: Walt Meier National Snow and Ice Data Center, Univ. Colorado Coop. Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences Betsy Youngman Phoenix Country Day School Mark McCaffrey Coop. Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences Anupma Prakash Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks Brian Rogan Boston Museum of Science

Visualizing Polar Change Whither Arctic Sea Ice? Using Sea Ice Data in the Classroom Use satellite data of sea ice to analyze trends and variability, present Case studies for various regions Impacts on people/wildlife Hudson Bay developed, others possible Imagery and animations for qualitative analysis Quantitative data for more involved analysis Uses ImageJ (freeware) for data/image analysis and processing MS Excel or other spreadsheet for further data analysis Data from NSIDC via ftp

Visualizing Polar Change Going Further – Hudson Bay Case Study Timing of when ice leaves Hudson Bay and when it returns Examine trends and variability How might trends affect polar bears in future? Other case studies on different regions, asking different questions can be developed

Visualizing Polar Change Northwest Passage – That Was Then After 400 years of trying, Roald Amundsen successfully navigated the NW Passage in 1906 It took him and his crew nearly 3 years

Visualizing Polar Change 21 Aug 2007 From Univ. of Bremen Amundsen’s Route In 2007, a 57-foot sailboat navigated the passage in a few weeks Northwest Passage – This Is Now

Visualizing Polar Change NSIDC Visualization Data and Tools NSIDC on GoogleEarth  Atlas of the Cryosphere  Sea Ice Index  nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/ Mosaic of Antarctica  GLIMS  Glacier Photographs  Weekly Snow Cover Climatology  Daily Snow Cover  Other Cryospheric Information  Whither Arctic Sea Ice? EET Chapter  Funding and Support from