International Comparisons Suggest Effective Safety Policy Dr. Leonard Evans President, Science Serving Society Bloomfield Hills, Michigan USA Devoted to adding reason and knowledge to public policy ScienceServingSociety.com 22 nd World Congress May 2011 Chongqing, China

Study builds on material in Particularly Chapter titled The Dramatic Failure of U.S. Safety Policy.. but his chapter “The Dramatic Failure of U.S. Safety Policy” is the showstopper Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA)

Earlier policy conclusions were based on comparing US safety performance with that in 3 comparison countries Data Sources This study compares US safety performance with that in 27 countries  The International Road Traffic and Accident Database (IRTAD)  US Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS)  Chinese data, and other recent data

Questions addressed in this study  Do earlier conclusions based on data thru 2002 persist?  Are earlier claims that three comparison countries were not “special” validated by other countries?  Are conclusion validated with even more clarity and confidence

United States maximum value 54,589 in 1972

Why did traffic deaths in USA and other countries have such steep declines in last few years? We know for certain it is not due to:  vehicles  roads

# Unimp Fatalities ↑ ↓↑↓ 29XX 4XX 21XX 8XX

Other measures examined in same way as the relative to 1979 comparisons:  changes since 2002  deaths per 1000 vehicles (US best in world in 1970s – now ranked 17)  deaths per billion km - data available only for few countries (US best in world in 1970s – now ranked 11)  Findings always similar – USA is outlier, pervious 3 comparison countries are unremarkable  M easure we now examine in detail – percent reduction since reaching maximum value

54,589 in ,985 in ,381 in ,313 in 1966

China MAXIMUM of 109,381 deaths in ,759 deaths in 2009

Sweden MAXIMUM of 1,313 deaths in deaths in ,788 deaths in 2010

This is 78.1% below Sweden’s all time high of 1313 in 1966 Sweden had 287 traffic deaths in 2010 If US total had fallen by 78.1% from its high, US total would be 11,932 More than 20,000 additional Americans are being killed annually because US does not match Swedish decline

Why does The Dramatic Failure of US Safety Policy persist? Continued obsessive focus on vehicles  on relatively unimportant aspects, or even non-existent phenomena like Toyota phantom acceleration U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood announced Friday, April 1, 2011: “We will continue doing everything possible to make cars safer, etc. …”

Conclusions  US performance is still well described as: The Dramatic Failure of US Safety Policy Ongoing American tragedy due to “ignorance in action” Earlier conclusions now validated with even greater clarity

Conclusions (continued)  other countries must avoid copying US  traffic safety is such an enormous problem that almost everything is important  vehicle factors are important  roadway factors are more important  but it is the behavior of road users that is overwhelmingly important  instead choose policies consistent with what science finds