Minnesota’s Changing Labor Market Rachel Vilsack Regional Analysis & Outreach Manager Labor Market Information Office

Labor Market Information (LMI) Office LMI Office supports state workforce and economic development systems by producing and disseminating data, key indicators, analysis, and trends on the economy, workforce, job market, and business community. LMI Office’s high quality information advises policy makers on current and future economic trends, helps employers make informed business decisions, and assists individuals in making strong career choices.

Minnesota job trend overview Employment is growing –63,130 more jobs compared to last August –Regained all jobs lost during the recession, plus 5,100 jobs Unemployment rate at 5.1% in August –Compared to a 7.3% rate in the United States Other positive signs –Minnesota has the 6 th best ratio of job seekers to online job postings. –Employment services topped 70,000 jobs for the first time ever. Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development & The Conference Board

Over-the-year regional trends in Minnesota, August 2013 Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) Numeric Employment Change Percent Employment Change Minneapolis-St. Paul MN-WI 56,8573.2% Duluth-Superior MN-WI % Rochester 780.1% St. Cloud 2,2622.2% Mankato % Minnesota 63,1272.3% United States 2,208,0001.7% Data are August 2012 to August Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Minnesota industry trends Data are August 2012 to August Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Job openings in Minnesota are expanding Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Minnesota job openings by industry Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Top 12 occupations with the most openings in Minnesota Retail salespersons Fast food workers Landscaping workers Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers Nursing assistants Cashiers Waiters and waitresses Hairstylists LPNs Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing Personal care aides Freight, stock and material movers Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Regional snapshot Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

What do unemployment rates measure? The unused and available resources in the labor force – in this case, people who want to work, are available to work, and actively seeking work notUnemployment rates do not include people who are not engaged in job-seeking behavior –Discouraged job seekers –Individuals with a temporary barrier A business can’t tell us who is unemployed, so we measure unemployment rates through household surveys

Minnesota and U.S. unemployment rates Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Regional unemployment rates Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

‘Official’ unemployment is only part of the story in Minnesota Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Unemployment trends in 2013 Large number of long-term unemployed individuals –The number of unemployed for 27 weeks or more averaged 54,600 in Evidence of a racial disparity in unemployment –The black unemployment rate is two times higher than the white unemployment rate. Difficulty faced by teens and young adults in finding employment –Unemployment rate for teens (age 16 to 19) was 18.6% in Minnesota in 2012.

Forecasting future job trends Minnesota’s economy will grow by 13%, or 368,000 new jobs, between 2010 and Over 663,000 new workers will be needed to take jobs left vacant through retirements and replacements. Employment changes depend on the demand for goods and services, productivity advances, technological innovations, and shifts in business practices. mn.gov/deed/eo Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

New job growth by region, Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Assumptions Recovery from the steep job losses experienced between 2008 and 2010 will boost job growth in Minnesota during the next few years, but job growth will slow. Job growth over the next decade will average 1.3% a year, a pace similar to job growth experienced in The key macroeconomic assumptions driving the national industry projections are: –GDP growth will average 3.0 % annually –Productivity growth will slow –U.S. labor force growth will slow –Unemployment will average 5.2% in 2020 Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Health care will add the most new jobs in Minnesota between 2010 and 2020 Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Office and sales occupations will need the largest numbers of workers Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Minnesota’s fastest growing occupations, 2010 to 2020 Veterinary technologists Biomedical engineers Personal care aides Helpers – construction Home health aides Marriage and family therapists Brickmasons and blockmasons Veterinarians Plumbers HVAC mechanics and installers Cement masons Cost estimators Electricians Diagnostic medical sonographers Interpreters and translators Mental health counselors Meeting, convention and events planners Physical therapists Market research analysts EMTs and paramedics Sheet metal workers Medical secretaries Medical scientists Physician assistants Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Minnesota occupations adding the most jobs, 2010 to 2020 Retail salespersons Personal care aides Cashiers Home health aides Waiters and waitresses Registered nurses Fast food workers Office clerks, general Customer service representatives Childcare workers Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers Freight, stock and material movers Business operations specialists Janitors and cleaners Sales representatives, manufacturing Receptionists and information clerks LPNs Agricultural managers Nursing assistants Teacher assistants Stock clerks Retail sales supervisors Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Typical training requirements Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) provides information on what is needed to enter and to attain competency in an occupation. The system allows an occupation to be assigned to multiple education/work experience categories. Economists used information from national surveys to look at workers’ educational attainment by occupation, and O*NET, which asks workers and occupational experts questions related to education, work experience, and training.

Employment distribution by educational level for Minnesota, 2010 & 2020 Prerequisite educational levels from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

By educational level, the percentage of jobs that meet a basic needs budget for… 1 Adult1 Adult, 1 Child No diploma25.5%6.2% High school diploma or equivalent93.0%41.8% Some college, no degree83.9%70.0% Associate's degree100.0%87.8% Bachelor's degree100.0%97.2% Graduate degree100.0%99.0% Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Percent of jobs paying less than $9.50 Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Occupation groups with the highest percentage of jobs paying under $9.50 Occupation Title Number Paying <$9.50 Percent Paying <$9.50 Food Preparation and Serving Related 140, % Sales and Related 83, % Building, Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 22, % Personal Care and Service 28, % Farming, Fishing, and Forestry % Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

What about claims of a growing educational gap by 2020? In Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements Through 2020, the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce claim that: – By 2020, we will need 26 million new workers with college degrees—but will fall short of that number by at least 5 million postsecondary degrees – 74% of all jobs in Minnesota (2.3 million jobs) will require some postsecondary training beyond high school in 2020

Compare “needs” to current educational attainment of MN adults, 2012 Educational Level Georgetown Projections: MN, 2020 Current Educational Attainment: MN, 2012 Less than high school 147,180270,170 High school diploma or equivalent 680,180952,141 Some college, no degree 706,150801,498 Associate's degree 444,940381,595 Bachelor’s degree 864,910807,626 Graduate Degree 357,170387,714 Educational attainment computed for the adult (age 25 and over) population. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

Skills gap debate A skills gap is the difference between the skill levels of the available workforce and the skills necessary to meet job requirements. Skills gaps are not synonymous with hiring difficulties. –Hiring difficulties may be a lack of qualified candidates who apply for a job. –Aside from lacking skills, there may be many reasons why qualified candidates don’t apply for jobs.

The only reminder you’ll have of economics class today Wage Supply Upward Wage Pressure W Vacancies Pressure on HoursDemand Employment Q S Q D

“Difficult to fill” stems from… Supply-side factors: Hiring difficulties caused by a mismatch between job requirements and the training, skills, and experience of applicants. Demand-side factors: Hiring difficulties caused by problems that are unrelated to candidates’ qualifications, such as unattractive work hours, inadequate compensation, geographic location of position, and ineffective recruiting.

Share of vacancies reported as “difficult to fill” by occupation group Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

“Difficult to hire” production jobs by region, Spring 2013 Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Factors perceived by employers as contributing to hiring difficulties Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Where are the hiring difficulties? Jobs requiring intermediate work experience from one to three years. Jobs requiring no post-secondary education. Regions in Greater Minnesota experienced geographic mismatches at rates similar to the Twin Cities.

Skills in demand Leadership and project management skills, with the ability to apply those skills in a team context Stronger critical-thinking and problem-solving skills to apply technical information to real life situations \ Strong multitasking and time-management abilities \ Adaptability Interpersonal communication and conflict resolution Motivated, trainable, and willing to engage in lifelong learning

New LMI products in 2014 “Better LMI” –Workforce supply and demand –Educational attainment of workers and employment outcomes of recent graduates by program of study Cost of Living –Link basic needs budget to hourly pay and current/future job opportunities –Statewide report and regional/county-level analysis

Other LMI products and publications Minnesota Economic TRENDS  Quarterly magazine on economic topics  Subscriptions available free of charge or on-line Minnesota Employment REVIEW  Monthly magazine on economic data and regional trends  Available exclusively on-line mn.gov/deed/review mn.gov/deed/trends

Let me know how I can help Rachel Vilsack Regional Analysis & Outreach Manager Labor Market Information Office Phone: (651)